Wednesday, September 21, 2022

SPX Update: Fed Day

SPX traded in a circle yesterday, so still not much to add to the prior few updates.  On the chart below, I sketched a short-term path that looks more than 50% likely, but is nowhere near 100%, so don't get married to it:

Beyond that, we are still in the first near-term inflection zone.

No change to the big picture:

In conclusion, not much to add to the past few updates.  Today is a Fed day, which usually means whipping and sawing until the announcement, then some more whipping and sawing after the announcement.  The market is already pricing in an ~84% chance of a 3/4 hike.  In other news, Russia is ramping up its military effort, and Putin made veiled threats against NATO, alluding to Russia's nuclear stockpile.  As I've written repeatedly, this is (in my opinion), a generational bear market (that link is to the lengthy piece I published on April 18) -- so while I'd normally ignore such things, this is the type of rare, devastating cycle where the worst should not be entirely discounted, though the cycle still has years to run.  Trade safe.

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