Wednesday, October 19, 2022

SPX Update: Still Important

Last update, I noted that I was slightly leaning toward the rally continuing, and that lean was correct, as it turns out.  Things get a bit more complicated now.  Let's start with the near-term chart, then we'll discuss a few things afterwards:

First off, SPX fell short of the initial 3775-3815 target -- this is due to the high being a b-wave (I talked about this in our forum) and measuring from that b-wave high instead of the actual end of the impulsive 1/a wave.  When I published this, I was not entirely sure the high was a b-wave, but yesterday it was confirmed (by the market) that it was, so I noted in real-time (on the forum) that we had reached the C=A inflection zone at 3762.  This means that 3762 is of some importance, as that could mark the end of an ABC rally from last week's low.  Conversely, if SPX sustains trade north of 3762, and particularly 3799, SPX may be winding for a stronger move higher, though some of that will need to be determined in real-time, based on the extant wave structure.

The b-wave high is why I adjusted the 3/c target lower.

Still looking at the chart above:  If the decline continues, the next test will be the rising blue trend line, but I think the more important zone is probably the falling black trend line, currently crossing 3635ish (and falling).  I say this because it's not uncommon to see such trend lines back-tested before the resumption of a rally, so, if SPX chooses to test that line at all, then bears would need to see that back-test fail.  The most bullish case would be a back-test that holds, then a breakout over 3762, which could suggest a strong countertrend rally underway.  Of course, if yesterday's low holds, then bulls can just go grab lunch or something.

Bigger picture, things are unchanged, since SPX is still within the range of the past several weeks:

In conclusion, last update's lean was correct, but I don't have another strong lean at the moment, so for now will have to suffice with knowing that yesterday's high (plus a little) is a near-term inflection zone.  Range-bound markets tend to muddy things, but how the market reacts from here will be telling, so hopefully the picture will clarify further for the next update.  Trade safe.

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