Wednesday, November 2, 2022

SPX Update: All the Marbles

Last update concluded:

[I]n conclusion, we are at (3/c could have completed on Friday, though it would look a little better with a bit more upside first) or approaching a bear inflection zone, and it's going to be tricky, because even the bull count would likely correct lower from that inflection (in gray 4? on the second chart), so both counts will seem up in the air for a time. 

Since then, we indeed got "a little bit more upside," and then "corrected[ed] lower from that" 3/c inflection.  If you're a new trader, you'll have a lot of people tell you that calling for a little bit more upside followed by a turn -- and then having the market play out exactly that way -- isn't something you're "supposed" to be able to do.  But here we are anyway, at the inflection, with things seeming "up in the air," and now the market does have options again (all week, I've said it's pointed higher -- that is finally not baked in anymore).

Bigger picture, we all need to be aware that in the event that inflection zone was the end, things can get extremely bearish from here:

In conclusion, this inflection zone is quite possibly playing for all the marbles for the immediate future.  I would still prefer to see a bit larger bounce here (after gray 4 completes), but I can't draw that from the charts, because we do have three waves up and three up can end a corrective bounce (gray 4 only exists if the rally wants to become 5 waves up instead of 3) -- so the market has the option to go either way now, my own personal preferences notwithstanding.  Trade safe.

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