Wednesday, December 14, 2022

SPX, INDU, and TLT Updates

So the last two updates noted that we had three waves down but had not yet completed the required impulsive decline to indicate a trend change -- and although the wave had the overall appearance of something that might ultimately become impulsive, the market had other ideas and elected to bottom right at the inflection zone:

Yesterday, SPX bounced back up to tag the blue 2 inflection, but was then rejected again, which continues to leave things up in the air for now.  

TLT has continued to rally nearly straight up since the 10/24 warning, and has now cleared next resistance:

In conclusion, over the past few weeks, I've probably written at least half a dozen variations of "I'm still awaiting an impulsive decline before getting too aggressive on the bearish side," and yesterday was a good example of why I take that approach during ambiguous rallies: The decline simply ended at the ALL OF C inflection and bounced furiously, illustrating why front running an impulse can be risky.  

As I've also written in basically every update since December began, there is still no change to my stance, which was probably most succinctly articulated in the piece linked above, as: "Thus, this is a neutral zone... It's not bearish until we see an impulsive decline, but neither is it a zone where one would want to initiate new long positions."  Trade safe.

No comments:

Post a Comment