Monday, January 9, 2023

SPX and NYA: Finally

Back on December 16, I wrote that the (then recent) top in SPX was less than ideal and had left open the possibility that high was the b-wave of an expanded flat.  After declining into the inflection zone, the market traded sideways, leaving me to publish update after update saying "no real change."

Well, the market finally broke out of that sideways range!  So, today's update will break with recent tradition and say... "no real change."  Yes!  Still.  The main changes are that SPX has finally moved toward the red "?" shown (for a while now) by the blue projection line (incidentally, that's a wider zone than it may appear; there are no hard rules for a 2/B wave (represented by the "?"), if that's what this even is, other than that it stay below the start of the first wave) -- and that the 3764 low has become more important.

NYA may be a bit more interesting, inasmuch as it's bouncing out a clear 3-down:

Bigger picture, NYA's "textbook" target is still hanging out in space:

In conclusion, while there's no real change, it does at least appear that I correctly identified the 3/C inflection zone a couple weeks ago.  The main change is that zone has now become something of a "must hold" zone for bulls, particularly in NYA, as any sustained break there could now imply a bear nest.  However, we have to take it for what it is, and right now, it's still just "3 down."  Trade safe.

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