Wednesday, March 8, 2023

SPX and NYA Updates: Bears Got What They Needed So Far

In the last update, I wrote:  If the current rally is a micro fourth wave, then bears would probably like to see it end shy of 4093. (There's a gap near 4070, we'll see if the market wants to aim for that or not.)

SPX then ran to 4078 and reversed, right in the range bears needed it to, which keeps the micro fourth wave very much on the table:

Bear v, were it to materialize directly, only needs to break the low at 3928, but if it can sustain a breakdown there, then 3820-45 would certainly be within the range of possibility for bear v.

NYA is in a similar position with its micro count, and a new low there would strongly hint at the decline having become an impulsive turn lower from the proposed (C) wave high:

In conclusion, bears stopped the market just a few points beyond my eyeballed 4070 target, now they just need to push below 3928 SPX to complete a probable impulsive decline.  Trade safe.

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