Monday, March 6, 2023

SPX Update: 10 Months in Purgatory

If you've been finding this market somewhat frustrating, this is to be expected given that SPX has now been stuck in a trading range since May of 2022.  On the plus side, you can at least be thankful you haven't had to write about it three times a week for every week of those 10 months.  It's the little things in life that make it all worthwhile!

So, not surprisingly, there's still not a lot to add to the last ~125 updates or whatever it's been.  Last update noted:

SPX did officially capture the red trend line, so it can bounce up to break last month's high from here, or it can bounce in a small fourth wave and then go on to form a fifth wave, which would give us a larger impulse down.

SPX indeed bounced but gave no indication yet whether this is a fourth wave or the start of a return to last month's high.  If the current rally is a micro fourth wave, then bears would probably like to see it end shy of 4093.  (There's a gap near 4070, we'll see if the market wants to aim for that or not.)

We can express both counts on one chart (below):

Not much to add beyond that.  At some point, the market will get beyond this trading range and things will get interesting again, but until then, trade safe.

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