Friday, March 3, 2023

SPX Update

As I wrote on February 27, the "easy" part was/is over for now.  While the near-term pattern was pretty clear for a while there, it has (as noted then) reached its inflection, and inflection points are a little tougher when the larger pattern is also unresolved, which is the case here.

SPX did officially capture the red trend line, so it can bounce up to break last month's high from here, or it can bounce in a small fourth wave and then go on to form a fifth wave, which would give us a larger impulse down:

Since inflection zones present a sort of crossroads, last update talked about the potential for a complex correction; today I want to mention one more option, just because it's there.  We won't worry too much about this just yet.

In conclusion, SPX is still within the inflection zone that it reached a few days ago.  Bears need another new low to have something resembling an impulsive decline, but there's no guarantee they'll get one, so it's not a bad idea to stay nimble until this resolves.  Trade safe.

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