Friday, September 22, 2023

SPX Update: (And I Feel Fine)

Yesterday, SPX confirmed my prediction from September 6, which was that trade below 4460 implied a trip below 4335.  But SPX has done more than that since last update.  Let's start with the big picture and work backwards, to understand why my lean from August 18 is seeming even more reasonable now:

Note the presumed levels on the "roadmap" sketch above and compare with the red 3 target below -- red 3 should take us perilously close to overlap of the key levels above.  That will probably trigger a bounce, which would be red 4 and we'll have to hold our breath there because there will be three waves down (which could always be a corrective ABC) and no overlap yet.  Then, if all that is in the correct ballpark, red 5 will take us down to new lows (below red 3, anyway) and finally overlap the key levels.

Bears finally broke the green trend line, but of course, have yet to hold that against whipsaws, so I don't want to imply that we should be complacent here, as the "complex intermezzo correction" is still on the table (if seemingly less likely):

Finally, COMPQ broke red and blue support, but closed the session right at its next support zone, so a bounce isn't unreasonable here, and bears do need to claim that (which I suspect they will) to add confidence:

In conclusion, SPX this month has captured two upside targets and two downside targets.  The next targets are listed, while bulls' main hope for the foreseeable future seems to be, at best, for a complex correction.  And while my lean on August 18 went against the grain at the time, it may not seem so outlandish now, and I continue to suspect we're in the very early stages of a massive third wave decline, to break the 2022 lows and beyond.  Trade safe.

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