Tuesday, October 24, 2023

SPX, NYA, COMPQ: Bears Still Getting Things Done

Since last update, my "against the crowd" lean that The Rally Everyone Was Getting Excited About was nothing more than a corrective fourth wave proved out:

SPX isn't tracking my September roadmap perfectly, but it's tracking it well enough.  For now, I've left everything as it was originally drawn:

SPX over the near-term is a bit unclear -- even under the most bearish scenario, SPX could head lower early, then reverse back up to/beyond yesterday's high to complete a micro 4th wave.  Or it could just enter the micro 5th (down) directly if it chooses.  As noted, it's not terribly clear on the one-minute chart which option it wants.  I'd probably very slightly lean toward the bounce, but waves can get weird if the market is in bad shape, so neither outcome would surprise me.

Oh, and of course that bounce could end up being the start of the bigger complex blue 4 from the first chart, probably shouldn't entirely ignore that.

NYA's chart describes how it could work with the big complex 4 in SPX, were such a thing to occur:

Meanwhile, COMPQ is in "bounce soon or break spectacularly" territory:

In conclusion, no real change from the last few months of updates, other than to note that things are progressing as well as bears could have hoped.  Trade safe.

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