Monday, January 22, 2024

SPX and COMPQ: Eat Your Crow. There Are Starving Children Who Would Be HAPPY to Have Some Crow

The big news from Friday is that SPX made a new all-time high, thereby resetting the long-term bear counts to zero and proving my long-term lean from early 2022 (which was for a big bear market -- I was right on the timing of the top and about "a" bear market, but not about it being "the" bear market) to be premature.

While it would not be unreasonable for the rally to continue a while longer, given that the rally from the bear market low is shaping up to look like five waves, I'm not sure the new all-time high will, in distant hindsight, be anything for bulls to cheer about.

COMPQ does suggest that, while a correction here isn't out of the question, there's probably at least a bit more upside left before bears can get a new intermediate trend going:

So, I was wrong about the BIG bear beginning in 2022, and while 2022 was a good year to be a bear -- and in 2023 I made some pretty solid near-term calls -- overall, that belief led me to lean the wrong way during a few key points of the rally of 2023.  For that error, I apologize.  

The good news is that now those counts are completely reset, so I can look at the charts "fresh" each day, so to speak.  Trade safe.

No comments:

Post a Comment