Monday, February 26, 2024

INDU Update: Two Charts = the Market a Nutshell

Let's just look at two charts today, because these two charts sum up the overall situation.

First is a chart we've looked at recently:

On the chart above, INDU could run higher and still be in the diagonal -- the rule in an ending diagonal is that the length of wave (iii) cannot exceed the length of wave (i), and INDU is nowhere near violating that rule yet.  You'll notice I did not specify "contracting" ending diagonal -- I did this because after ~25 years of charting with Elliott Wave, I'm still not convinced that "expanding" diagonals actually exist.  I think one can usually find another explanation when one is tempted to employ an expanding diagonal.  

So, much as I do not recognize Disney's abomination of a trilogy as actual "Star Wars," I do not recognize "expanding diagonals" as legitimate patterns.

Next up is a closer view of INDU, which I began calling attention to in early January, as this chart summarizes the issue:

In conclusion, this market long ago detached from fundamental reality, so to my way of thinking -- at least for the time being -- it's just a matter of following the trend until we get another impulsive decline to signal a possible short-term (or longer term, if it's a larger impulse) trend change.  If one looks back to last update, one can see it is possible that SPX is getting close to wrapping up a smaller fifth wave, so a correction this week is not out of the question -- just not willing to front run it from an analytical perspective, since it's an ambiguous pattern.  Trade safe. 

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