Wednesday, February 28, 2024

SPX Update: But the Levee Was Dry


Now, the halftime air was sweet perfume 
While sergeants played a marching tune 
We all got up to dance 
Oh, but we never got the chance 
'Cause the players tried to take the field 
The marching band refused to yield 
Do you recall what was revealed 
The day the music died

-- American Pie, Don McLean

For anyone who's unaware:  The "sergeants/marching band" represent the military industrial complex.  The players are us.  And, as we all know, once they had it, the "marching band refused to yield" control back to the people.  That portion of the song is about the loss of the American republic to the interests that still control it.  For some reason, it felt apropos to mention today.  Make of that what you will.

Looking at SPX intermediate term, we can see the zone bears will need to claim to put the bigger brakes on things.  If bears cannot claim and hold that zone, then we could be a ways away from any meaningful tops.

Near-term, further correction from here is possible, but not guaranteed.

If we put those two charts together, then we see that bears would need to create a larger correction here that then whipsaws the breakout on the first chart -- if they want to get something going for more than the short-term, that is.  If it does continue lower directly, then a gap fill down toward 4980-90 would not be out of the question.  If that happens, then we'll take it from there.  Given the significant number of x-factors in the overall picture, I'm content to let the market lead for now.  Trade safe.

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