Friday, June 21, 2024

COMPQ Update

Readers got a free "bonus update" on Wednesday because nobody reminded me that it was Juneteenth, which is an important holiday commemorating the fact that months can also be numbers.  There have been years I've forgotten my own birthday (not kidding) until someone (usually my wife or one of the kids) said, "Happy Birthday," so I can hardly be expected to remember every holiday on the calendar, especially those that have only become official recently.

Anyway, it turns out I should have taken that day off and now the market owes me one.  Also, there's not a lot to add to that update, so I took the time to label the COMPQ chart.  I've discussed this in prior updates, but sometimes it helps to have a visual, so here it is:

In conclusion, because we are into "never bank on fifth waves" territory, there's always the possibility that the rally is done, but right now it probably looks slightly more likely that there's still another 4/5 unwind out there lurking.  Do be aware though, that even if the current drop is "only a fourth wave," because the prior fifth wave extended, it does at least have the potential to retrace much deeper than shown (it could retrace most of the post-Fed rally if it wanted without creating any technical problems).  In any case, not a lot to go off of beyond that, so we'll see how things look on Monday.  Trade safe.

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