Monday, June 24, 2024

SPX, INDU, Wilshire 5000: "Refer" Madness

On Friday, the market went to breakfast and never returned, leaving both bulls and bears to wonder if maybe they'd chosen the wrong profession.  Accordingly, I have no real choice but to repeat Friday's closing paragraph, with one change (noted below):

In conclusion, because we are into "never bank on fifth waves" territory, there's always the possibility that the rally is done, but right now it probably looks slightly more likely that there's still another 4/5 unwind out there lurking. Do be aware though, that even if the current drop is "only a fourth wave," because the prior fifth wave extended, it does at least have the potential to retrace much deeper than shown (it could retrace most of the post-Fed rally if it wanted without creating any technical problems). In any case, not a lot to go off of beyond that, so we'll see how things look on Monday Wednesday.

Here's an updated chart:

Sorry!  I didn't have my reading glasses on, I don't usually publish that Wilshire 5000 chart!  Lemme put those on real quick... okay, here's INDU:

And here's SPX, only exploring the bear case, because we all know what the bull case is, and because INDU rallied in three waves after an impulse down, so unless INDU can break higher, we might be looking at the near-term bear options:

In conclusion, we're still in very speculative territory here, so keep that in mind as a caveat and just because I only published bear charts doesn't mean those are hard and fast predictions, just speculations -- the market could easily go the other way (refer back to first paragraph for context).  Trade safe.

No comments:

Post a Comment