On Friday, Trump announced his nominee for next Fed Chair: Kevin "Car" Warsh. Trump announced this via Truth Social, posting: "I've selected Kevin because his last name should provide hours of entertaining puns from my favorite market analyst."
Kevin "Hog" Warsh is an interesting choice, because at one time he was very anti-inflation and pro-higher-rates, but apparently lately he's changed his tune. Either way, I'm rooting for Mr. "Mouth" Warsh, literally only because of his name. I know almost nothing else about him, but we haven't had a Fed Chair with a name this good in years.
Equities-wise, not much happened on Friday (though gold and silver crashed when "Brain" Warsh was announced).
INDU tested its long-term line again. If it sustains a break of the blue and red confluence at this point, we'll probably see it test black:
COMPQ was rejected on its first test of the old black line. It has long-term support (not visible on a chart at this time scale -- which is why I'm showing it for readers here) in the box:
SPX is still refusing to clearly state whether it's going to run with the complex expanded flat we've been side-eying for two months now -- or whether it's going to end up being a bull nest:
By way of conclusion, I'm going to reprint Friday's summation, because it's useful and detailed:
So, here's where we are now:
1. COMPQ did NOT yet clear its important upside zone. This keeps bear options at least on the table for now. However:
2. INDU is still above its major support line, so bears have nothing to sink their teeth into there.
3. SPX is still above near-term support, so again, nothing that allows bears to claim victory.
In short, bears held an important upside line FOR NOW -- but they have yet to claim any key downside zones. So, as of this exact moment, we can't say that bears have the ball.
A good analogy might be to say that bears prevented a touchdown, but it's only third down and bulls could still score on the next play. If bears can force the bulls into a fourth down situation (by pushing below the next key levels), then they might take over on downs. But let's see what play bulls call on third down here before declaring the game winner -- because if bulls can push back up and over 24K, things will look pretty good for them. If bears start sustaining trade below support, then the calculus begins to shift in their favor.
Trade safe.
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