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Wednesday, February 4, 2026

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Almost Too Orderly

Last update reiterated Friday's note that bears hadn't accomplished anything yet. Since then, both SPX and INDU made new all-time highs.  Once again, though, they were unable to get any farther than that.  So bulls are keeping the ball away from bears, but can't seem to push down the field very far.

INDU is back to long-term support, though at this point, this is behaving almost TOO orderly, which makes things too easy for market participants.  Now, that doesn't mean the market "needs" to throw a curveball, but we should probably be prepared for that option.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it drop through red and blue (maybe down to black) at some point just to put The Fear into bulls.  

That's not required, of course, but if bulls can't get up and over the all-time high pretty soon here, then be ready for it.


COMPQ dropped down to its lower near-term trend line and tagged it on the nose:


SPX has formed an apparent three-down from its recent all-time high:


In conclusion, nothing to add to recent updates, but worth noting that "not getting bearish" after the last decline was the right call, since SPX and INDU both made new highs since then, which would have invalidated any bear counts.  Trade safe.

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