SPX, COMPQ, INDU: Stick Save or Bust

First up, the forums are STILL down -- after much back and forth and gnashing of teeth, it appears the problem is on my host's end, so now we're waiting for them to sort out their server Apache handlers.  In the meantime, I'll post to X a bit: Pretzel Logic

Market-wise, last update said: 

The thing about this wave is *if* it's a C-wave decline, it should be a clean motive wave -- either a standard impulse down or a diagonal.  Right now, it isn't clearly either of those things.  That may suggest it's still incomplete.

And SPX then made new lows -- so it was, indeed, incomplete.

But the market is having an interesting moment now: after drifting downward early, Trump tweeted that he was in positive negotiations with Iran and futures shot up ~230 points in six minutes. Whether that's enough to mark a bottom or not is anyone's guess.  COMPQ suggests bulls probably need it to be.  If futures give all those gains right back, beware.  COMPQ's prior behavior around this trend line suggests bulls can't tolerate being below it for long without more selling hitting the tape.

SPX futures took it closer to its textbook target in the overnight, but didn't quite reach it.

INDU futures basically did reach its target in the overnight.

In conclusion, the question at the moment is whether Trump's tweet is going to be enough to stick save this thing here -- and "here" happens to be at or near first targets, so that's not out of the question.  The first positive sign for bulls would be sustained trade north of ~6700, and ideally a breakout over the upper red boundary on the SPX chart.  The "positive" sign for bears would be SPX giving back everything futures just gained and COMPQ sustaining trade south of Friday's low.  The COMPQ chart suggests that if that occurs, we could see the selling continue, possibly leading the market another 5-10% lower, if not more.  Trade safe.