SPX and INDU: Market Tries to Throw Curveball, Fails

Last update noted the expanded flat in SPX could get more complex, and it did.  This was the market's attempt at a tricky curveball, but we were ready for it.

On the chart above, the most likely scenario is, of course another new ATH -- and in fact, futures have already made a new ATH.  And because of the pattern in ES, I'm inclined to think that even if SPX broke down below black C immediately, it might just be a WXY.  So the first target (in the event of a breakdown at the C-wave low prior to a new ATH) would be 100 points down from the prevailing high (i.e.- if SPX opened at 7138 then reversed immediately and broke the C-wave low, our first target and inflection zone would be 7038).

That said, in that scenario, I can't entirely rule out the alt. 1 count, but my first lean would be as described above.

Intermediate term, SPX finally broke the green melt-up channel, which is a shame because it was such an easy channel to trade.  The break doesn't indicate anything bearish as of yet, it just puts bulls on notice to pay closer attention.  The steep upsloping black trendline is now the new line to watch.  The slightly upsloping blue line is probably our best current pivot for "big complex flat possible vs. unlikely."

Last INDU update noted that INDU had reached resistance, which could cause a pause, and it did:

Finally, just a reminder the if SPX holds this look through the end of the month, it's going to look bullish:

That's about all the news that's fit to print.  Trade safe.