SPX Update: Things to Watch

The market finally gave a little bit of its recent gains back, but so far has held the melt-up channel, closing right on the lower boundary:

Near-term, there are three main options:

Basically, if SPX bounces (open suggests it will) but FAILS to reclaim the red B/2 high (second chart), then reverses and sustains a breakdown below the C/(i) low (which will also break the melt-up channel), bulls should probably get very cautious.  A sustained breakdown there would not only open up the possibility of an decline toward the 6800s, it would open up the possibility of the BIG expanded flat on the first chart that takes us back below 6300.

If none of that happens and SPX goes on to make a new high, bulls could be okay (for as long as that lasts), but should still stay alert for future breaks of the green melt-up channel.  Trade safe.