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Monday, August 10, 2026

NYA and COMPQ Updates: (SPX Offered Nothing New)

SPX rallied a hair on Friday but is in the same place structurally.  Which means there's nothing new to talk about there.  So, to prevent this update from being six words long, let's talk about something else.

We'll start with the bull case, which is probably at its most visible in NYA:



The bear case, which might well only be short-term even if it comes to pass, is still best visible in COMPQ:


In conclusion, on Friday, I mentioned on our forums that across my literally tens of thousands of hours of watching price charts unfold in real-time, I haven't seen too many markets behave this consistently strangely, particularly from a pattern perspective.  Micro-patterns that would resolve 90% of the time in a typical market never get resolved in this one.  Obviously, you could say "well, this is just the 10% of the time they don't resolve" and I would agree with that if it only happened once or twice -- but it's been continuous.  You can expect to hit heads 50% of the time on a coin flip -- but you can't reasonably expect to hit it 60 times in a row.  This market is the latter.  Trade safe.

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