Let's start with the complex triangle. This first chart is the chart we've all come to know and love through these many moons -- a chart that needs no introduction.
The second chart is more... detailed.
This next chart shows how the complex triangle (if that's what this even is) might play out:
This third chart shows the current micro count. If this wave is part of a triangle, it should remain an ABC. If it becomes impulsive, that would leave the old WXY count and a b-wave low (with the next wave down to be a third wave) (that count can't exceed 7582)... or bull options.
Let's add more detail to the details detailed above: In the event this is the complex triangle, it's worth knowing that it would NOT be long-term bearish. It would be near-term bearish -- but because triangles are virtually always penultimate waves (4th or b waves), it would strongly suggest the larger decline from the ATH would remain as an ABC, with new highs to follow.
The most bearish count going right now would be the WXY with that last decline as wave 1 of C or 3 down and the current bounce as 2 up. That count would offer at least some longer-term hope (not promises, but hope) to bears, were it to play out.
The bull counts are varied -- and largely redundant, because they all end with "stocks go up." There is one obscure "bull" count that ends badly, and that would be if this were an ending diagonal in progress, destined for one or two more highs before falling off a cliff -- but we'll worry about that if the pattern says we should.
Ultimately, bulls are basically just looking for SPX to make a new all-time high, which would reset most of the bear options and give bulls a clean slate.
So those are the details as they sit at this exact moment in time. Trade safe.
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