Oil, SPX, NYA, COMPQ Updates

Let's start with oil, since I've received several requests from oil bulls to, quote: "REMOVE THAT STUPID B LABEL ALREADY!!"  Back in March, I drew this oil chart and placed the red "b?" where it is:

Then, over the subsequent half a year, oil rallied all the way up to that label, hit the bottom of the "b," then reversed hard.  Oil bulls are now blaming me for this reversal, since (according to them) it's obvious on the chart that my "b?" label is simply blocking oil's advance:

So, I'd like oil bulls to please understand that, while it may seem like it's my fault for placing that b-label where I did, that's just where it looked like oil wanted to go, and where I thought it would be forced to decide what it wanted to do next.  Labels aren't physical things that can reverse rallies, they're just ideas in my head.  So, I'm just the messenger, really.  Please stop sending me messages now.

Next up is NYA, which has so far failed to recover the black channel and is thus still hanging around in dangerous waters:

COMPQ is now below all its near-term support levels:

No change to SPX so far:

In conclusion, no real change to anything.  We do remain in "potential 3rd wave" territory, so stay alert, as third waves are often crash waves.  Trade safe.

Where Do We Go from Here (Now That All of the Children Are Grown Up)?

America is getting progressively dumber at an alarming rate.  This is happening both literally...

And anecdotally.  Both of these next two items are screenshots from the U.S. Treasury official website.  Item one:  

Since we need to borrow almost a trillion dollars this quarter (I believe it's over a trillion if you count SOMA), you might think that would prompt some soul searching as to whether continuing to increase taxpayer debt is sustainable in a "not low" interest rate environment (we're not even in a "high" interest rate environment, unless one's baseline is the last 15 years).  But you'd be wrong.  Instead, we're going to waste even more precious resources and money we don't have producing detailed reports about issues that we have zero control over (aka: "the weather"):

These are only three examples of the types of news items you and I see every single day that cannot help but cause us to question what the hell this country is doing.  It's as if there's a massive tsunami headed straight for us but, instead of making any effort to prepare or even acknowledge its existence, we're busy arguing about whether Coke is better than Pepsi.  And we're getting REALLY HEATED about that argument.  As if that's something that matters more than, say, the fact that we're going to be crushed by interest payments on the debt, or the fact that banks are holding tons of questionable assets, or the fact that our actions on the world stage are uniting our worst enemies in common cause against us, at the exact same time that we're weakening ourselves both financially and militarily (some of our munitions stockpiles will take over a decade to replenish -- and that was as of January), and the fact that historians may well look back on this time in history as "the Start of World War III."

Along with a million other serious and, more importantly, real issues that we're completely ignoring. 

Something to think about as they test the emergency cell phone alert system later today.  (Meanwhile, Russia ran nationwide drills for nuclear war yesterday.  I'm sure the timing of both of these things is purely coincidental.  Don't give it another thought.)

Anyway, NYA captured its target from two months ago (typo says "Sept. 7," but the target was from August 7):

And SPX is tracking this "roadmap" chart (not updated since September 22) well so far:

Other than mentioning the target captures (targets often act as support/resistance, so this could lead to a near-term bounce), there's no change from recent updates.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, GOLD: This is a Little Weird

Last update opined that the "most likely" scenario was for the current bounce to be a fourth wave, and nothing has happened to alter that so far.  Worth mentioning that NYA back-tested its noted broken trend line and was rejected.  Another test of the zone near that line is not required, but would be perfectly normal:

Next, SPX didn't quite reach the green line -- but again, another go at it, if it happens, shouldn't surprise anyone:

Very long-term, SPX is now below its key blue line:

Finally, I was looking through last year's chart book, and I just had to share this, because it's weird.  First, remember back on May 3, 2022, when I published this chart?  (I actually drew the chart in April 2022, but didn't publish immediately.)

So here's what's weird... this is the chart as it looks in my old chartbook now:

Anyway, (3)/C's timing seems a bit aggressive to me from where I sit now, but sometimes these charts almost draw themselves and can end up being smarter than me, if that makes any sense.  So we'll see how that goes.  But, however (3)/C goes, the timing of (2)/B (timing is not something I put any conscious thought into) seemed just a bit unreasonable to me.

Oh, almost forgot, gold has opened an option worth being aware of:

In conclusion, presently, the pattern still suggests that the current bounce is most likely a fourth wave, to be followed (after it completes) by a fifth wave below last week's low.  If anything changes there, we'll discuss that as appropriate.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, TLT: SPX Captures Target 1; TLT Confirms Long-Standing Count

As another one bites the dust, I was finally forced to move away from the 80s-music-themed titles.  Let's go right to the charts, starting with NYA:

SPX captured and exceeded Target 1 from Sept. 8:

Bigger picture, SPX is bouncing off the red trend line:

There is resistance several places overhead, with 4350ish as a standout:

And last but not least, TLT has finally confirmed my wave count from 2022:

In conclusion, bulls do have some options here, but for now, the "most common" situation would be for the current bounce in SPX and NYA to be a fourth wave.  If things get squirrely, we'll take a closer look at the bull options.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: You Might Think

Not a whole lot to add to the past few updates, but a couple charts are worth looking at anyway, starting with NYA, which suggests new lows are still lurking out there, one way or another:

SPX is in a similar position:

In conclusion, the most likely resolution for these patterns is ultimately lower.  Which really isn't adding anything to the past few updates, but the charts "show the math," so to speak.  Be aware that this is potentially dangerous territory for bulls, as unless they can reclaim some key zones, an acceleration of the decline in the fairly near future is very possible.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ: Don't Change for You, Don't Change a Thing for Me

Those of you with internet access may have noticed that today's title continues the long-running tradition (two days) of referencing classic 80s songs.  Not sure if I'll try this again on Wednesday, but I Just Can't Get Enough, so I will be Right Here Waiting to see If This Is It or not.

As the title implies, no change from last update, but I did want to bring forward the NYA chart, which I haven't updated in a while, because it's right at rising support.  If bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then a sustained breakdown here quite likely takes NYA down toward blue 3/C:

SPX is unchanged:

Hanging out just below green, and no change:

No change to the targets:

COMPQ still flirting with next support:

In conclusion, no real change to anything.  Several market are still sitting at or near theoretical support zones -- if bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then that tells us something about the strength (or lack thereof) of the market.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: (And I Feel Fine)

Yesterday, SPX confirmed my prediction from September 6, which was that trade below 4460 implied a trip below 4335.  But SPX has done more than that since last update.  Let's start with the big picture and work backwards, to understand why my lean from August 18 is seeming even more reasonable now:

Note the presumed levels on the "roadmap" sketch above and compare with the red 3 target below -- red 3 should take us perilously close to overlap of the key levels above.  That will probably trigger a bounce, which would be red 4 and we'll have to hold our breath there because there will be three waves down (which could always be a corrective ABC) and no overlap yet.  Then, if all that is in the correct ballpark, red 5 will take us down to new lows (below red 3, anyway) and finally overlap the key levels.

Bears finally broke the green trend line, but of course, have yet to hold that against whipsaws, so I don't want to imply that we should be complacent here, as the "complex intermezzo correction" is still on the table (if seemingly less likely):

Finally, COMPQ broke red and blue support, but closed the session right at its next support zone, so a bounce isn't unreasonable here, and bears do need to claim that (which I suspect they will) to add confidence:

In conclusion, SPX this month has captured two upside targets and two downside targets.  The next targets are listed, while bulls' main hope for the foreseeable future seems to be, at best, for a complex correction.  And while my lean on August 18 went against the grain at the time, it may not seem so outlandish now, and I continue to suspect we're in the very early stages of a massive third wave decline, to break the 2022 lows and beyond.  Trade safe.