SPX Update: A Well-behaved Market

Since last update, SPX did exactly what it was supposed to (hence today's title) -- tested blue from below (as suggested), then dropped down to test red (as also suggested):

Bears need to keep the chart below in mind -- unless and until SPX whipsaws its very long-term breakout, this could just be a classic scary retest, which is pretty standard fare for these types of things:

Despite a bit of back and forth, nothing of note has occurred since last update, so I'm going to reprint that conclusion.  (Incidentally, when I said "fourth wave," I meant it's still possible this is just a fourth wave correction to a potentially-ongoing bull move.)

[T]he bottom line is, from a technical Elliott wave perspective, nothing has happened yet and this could just be a particularly violent fourth wave.  Even from a standard TA perspective, this could just turn out to be an expected test of old long-term resistance (second chart) before the market moves higher again.  In other words:  While this could turn into something more significant, it's tempting but simply premature to assume that will happen just yet.  Let's first see how the market handles the levels that actually matter. 

Trade safe.

SPX Update: A Touch of Grey

Last update ended with:

In conclusion, the first chart notes that the rally is finally showing some signs of... I don't want to say "exhaustion" just yet, but certainly some lethargy.  That said, there's no distinct pattern we can point at as a slam-dunk example of this, but we've seen a lot of overlap and little progress recently -- and that can sometimes be a warning sign.  So bulls should at least keep on their eyes open here. 

And that turned out to be understated but very much correct.  For the record, it's written as it is (with the ellipsis hanging as a marker of where I overrode my first instinct) because the word I originally wanted to use was in fact "exhaustion."  But I stopped myself because I couldn't justify that logically since there was nothing concrete in the chart that I could point at.  So it would have been "because I say so" (or "because I sense a disturbance in the Force"), which is kind of hard for even me to get behind.

Anyway, I regret not going with my first instinct, but at least I was able to provide an extremely timely, if understated, warning to bulls.

As to where we are now -- well, the market is into that lovely no-man's land between old, largely irrelevant (from an Elliott perspective) support and the actual meaningful support zone (black):

It is quite interesting that black support on the chart above roughly lines up with the next important very long term support zone (below):

So let's cut to the chase here:  In another market (meaning: a real, normal market), I'd probably think more downside.  In this market, though?  I prefer to wait to see what happens at the key levels before pushing out onto any limbs.  Because the bottom line is, from a technical Elliott wave perspective, nothing has happened yet and this could just be a particularly violent fourth wave.  Even from a standard TA perspective, this could just turn out to be an expected test of old long-term resistance (second chart) before the market moves higher again.  In other words:  While this could turn into something more significant, it's tempting but simply premature to assume that will happen just yet.  Let's first see how the market handles the levels that actually matter.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: A Bit of Lethargy

Last update was on target:

And of course the eternal channel is still active:

In conclusion, the first chart notes that the rally is finally showing some signs of... I don't want to say "exhaustion" just yet, but certainly some lethargy.  That said, there's no distinct pattern we can point at as a slam-dunk example of this, but we've seen a lot of overlap and little progress recently -- and that can sometimes be a warning sign.  So bulls should at least keep on their eyes open here.  Trade safe.

SPX and GOLD Updates

Last update provided a near-term trend line as potential support, and SPX never broke it, rallied up to a new all-time high, then reversed back through that line -- but the new all-time high negated the original near-term pattern that would have been applicable had it broken down directly.

Bigger picture, SPX is of course still in the channel.  It's been in some version of this channel basically forever.

Finally, it's a good time to update Gold, which I capitalize (I guess?) to differentiate it from the color (not really sure why I capitalize it, to be honest -- just doesn't look right in lower case).  Anyway, Gold is reaching the top of a sneaky bastage trend channel, so that's worth keeping an eye on:

Not much else to say beyond that for now.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Things to Do in Denver When You're Dead

Since last update, INDU managed a new all-time high and SPX rallied a bit more, only to give it all back before the close.  SPX's pattern is clean enough to allow some contingent near-term targets in the event of a breakdown (but not clean enough to guarantee such a breakdown -- so these are "if and only if"):

Bigger picture, SPX is of course still within the blue channel:

So, in the event of a breakdown, we have some near-term targets to watch, but if there's no breakdown, then the beatings will continue until morale improves.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: I've Rewarded Bad Behavior (Twisting My Arm Worked)

In the last update, after a little COMPLETELY UNNECESSARY arm twisting, I offered my opinion that INDU and SPX were likely to retest or exceed their prior all-time highs. SPX then went on to exceed its high, while INDU moved into the zone of an approximate retest without exceeding its ATH.

As of this moment, it's probably reasonable to expect SPX to at least get closer to the median line on the blue channel.  Be aware that the median line has acted as resistance on several occasions now, so if bull can't clear it, then it could continue acting as resistance and lead to another rejection.

In INDU, I'd expect it to probably move at least a bit higher here -- and if it can sustain trade over its ATH, it could even pick up a little more steam:

Not much else to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates: You Don't Have to Twist My Arm

Last update noted that unless bears could break down support, there really wasn't anything for them to get excited about, and that remains the case.  If you twisted my arm, I'd tell you to knock it off because I was going to say this next part ANYWAY (sheesh) -- and then I'd tell you that now I'm not going to tell you anything at all, since you twisted my arm for no reason.  

But if you apologized, I'd say my best guess is that there's probably more upside left, at least near-term:

In SPX, since September 17, we've been Saving the Environment® by not wasting paper doing new annotations.  Plus there's been nothing to add.  Assuming my take on INDU is right, then if SPX may also retest its prior high.  If it then goes on to clear its prior high, we should watch the centerline of the blue channel for next possible resistance.

So, that's about all the news that's fit to print.  On the downside, the blue channel remains the first zone bears would need to break.  Trade safe.