SPX, NYA, RUT Updates: Global Title Shortage Begins Impacting Updates

Prior to today, I'd had a decent collection of reserve titles stored in a fire-safe in my basement -- but today I realized that I don't HAVE a basement, leaving this update without a suitable title.

On Friday, SPX captured the "higher probability" target from October 26, and has so far managed to hold 2114.  I'm going to let the charts take it from here, starting with RUT, which hasn't been playing along with the Chop Zone that SPX has been stuck in:

Next is NYA:

The bigger picture view for SPX is still unchanged: (continued, next page)

SPX Update: Choppin' Broccoli for Halloween

"There is a fifth dimension, beyond that which is known to man.  It is a dimension as vast as Ben Bernanke's money supply, and as timeless as Hillary Clinton's pantsuits.  It is the middle ground between July and November, between hopelessness and frustration, and it lies between the pit of roughly 2114 SPX and the summit of 2193.  This is the dimension of lost time premium, of random stop grabs, and of traders screaming at computers.  It is an area which we call:  The Chop Zone."

(insert "dee dee dee dee, dee dee dee dee..." music here)

That intro is, of course, stolen verbatim directly from Rod Serling's prophetic TV series:  The Chop Zone.  In order to appeal to a larger audience, that show was later reworked into the more widely-recognized Twilight Zone, which made its debut 57 years ago (in 1959), during the month of (you ready?) October ("dee dee dee dee...").  It's too bad that the original version was never made public, because the intro alone could have saved today's traders a LOT of grief.

From a "traders almanac" standpoint, today should be significant, since this weekend is Halloween, at least for those traders who are missing a day on their calendars (me; some guy named "Sal" (Manilla?) in Brooklyn) -- and we all know what Halloween means to the market!  Wait, I've just been handed a note by our research department... you mean we DON'T know what Halloween means to the market???  You say it has no real market significance AND it's not a major holiday?  Oh sheesh.  Try telling my wife!

Despite the Negative Nellie attitude of my research department, a quick Google search using the terms "market patterns on Halloween" revealed the following disturbing Halloween patterns, so we should keep an eye out in case these show up in the next couple trading sessions:

On a more serious note, we're still in the chop zone (been trying my best to at least keep these updates interesting!), and the market has managed to eliminate exactly zero of the short-term options, although the diagonal is looking less probable:

For the larger view, nothing has changed yet (obviously!):

It's interesting to note that BKX has not been playing along with SPX's chop zone tendencies, and has now slightly exceeded my July target zone:

In conclusion, there's really nothing to add down here that I haven't already said two or three hundred times already -- so I'll simply end with my usual sign off:  Trade safe.
 

SPX Update: The Market Hates You

First off, for last update, I feel obligated to apologize to readers for not remembering to remind everyone yet again about "the red trend line," which I had discussed as critical in numerous prior updates.  Monday's rally briefly broke above 2150, but was then rejected at that very same red trend line (see below).  On Tuesday, SPX was unable to claim Monday's opening high, and continued to chop lower throughout the session.  Unfortunately, this leaves the near-term incredibly ambiguous.  The intermediate preferred outlook remains unchanged.

I've attempted to outline some of the near-term potentials on the chart below -- although just about anything goes in a chop zone like this, so the near-term pattern may be even more complex than those shown below, and thus may simply not be apparent yet.  These are certainly not the only options.

In conclusion, SPX continues to grind traders into submission.  Chop zones sometimes appear to serve the function of capitulating trend traders prior to a larger trending wave finally getting underway -- and to convince trend traders to bail too early once it finally DOES get underway (because everyone has been conditioned to expect more chop).  The choppy overlapping nature of the recent waves also means the near-term pattern thus remains up for grabs.  Intermediate term, I still favor lower prices.  Trade safe. 

SPX Update: No (fill in the blank)

Honestly, there's only so much you can write about a market that's been range-bound for 11 days before you run out of original things to say.  You can always repeat yourself, but that starts to get boring after a while, and also starts to get boring after a while.  For both the reader AND the writer.  Thus, I'm going to let the charts do all the talking today.

We'll start with a chart that I consider to be my crowning achievement -- my "master work" if you will -- the culmination of everything I've ever learned.  This was the first chart I drew this weekend, and the projections on this particular chart will almost certainly prove to be correct:

Ha ha!  Just a little Stockcharts humor there, designed to elicit angry responses from our Congressional "leaders."  And to break the monotony of saying "No change" again.

Anyway, here are the real charts, which, if I recall correctly, were SUPPOSED to be doing all the talking (glares sternly at charts).  First is the SPX bigger picture chart, which, you guessed it, is the same as last update:

SPX short-term:

And a few prudent notes:

In conclusion, I haven't said "no change" this often since the last time I strolled down 42nd street.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Bears Still Defending 2150

SPX has done very little in recent sessions, except continue to reject rally attempts near the key 2150/red trend line resistance zone discussed last Friday.  Thus bears are at least keeping hope alive for a more immediately bearish resolution to this pattern, so I've updated the chart below to include one version of the more bearish option:

A near-term SPX chart below:

In conclusion, there's still no change, since the market has ground sideways all week.  Bears have continued to defend 2150, keeping hopes alive for more directly bearish near-term options.  I remain bearish on the larger pattern, and (to reiterate what I've been saying all week) do not currently believe that 2114 is a significant low.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates

Sometimes you can look at a near-term pattern and say, "Ah, this is obvious.  Here's what happens next!"  Other times, you feel like you need to see just a little more from the market.

In terms of the current picture, I'm still slightly leaning toward the blue 2/b path outlined last Friday, but bulls have not yet reclaimed the key resistance zone (also outlined on Friday) -- so the market does seem to be keeping its options open at the moment, perhaps "waiting" on the ECB tomorrow.  Thus, there is still no material change to the recent updates:

The larger pattern appears more clear-cut, and I still have a difficult time seeing this as anything bullish:

In conclusion, as mentioned previously, the downward wave from 2193 SPX appears incomplete, so I'm still inclined to believe that lower lows are coming.  The main question is still whether we'll follow the blue 2/b path, or if near-term overhead resistance will continue to contain the market.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Change

There's very little to add to Friday's update, except to note that bears did make a stand at the 2145-50 resistance zone, which I mentioned as the next meaningful level and the zone that bulls need to reclaim. 

In conclusion, there's very little to add today.  Either bulls get back above the red trend line, or they don't -- either way, I think there are still lower-lows lurking in the market's future, the main question seems to be whether those come directly, or after a bit more rally.  Trade safe.