SPX Update II: Revenge of the Stockcharts

I drew a really nice chart for today's update -- maybe the best chart I've ever drawn.  It's highly likely this chart, had I been able to publish it, would have improved the lives of millions of people, and possibly cured diabetes.  Unfortunately, StockCharts had other plans, so when I attempted to save the chart, it deleted it.

This left me short on time for today's update, which will be accordingly brief.

I've reproduced what I could of the deleted chart:

In conclusion, yesterday's decline did not quite overlap the presumed wave-I high (Blogger or Edge keeps auto correcting my I from lower case to capital), which leaves open the option for yesterday's dip to be a micro fourth wave, if SPX can break out over 2940.  If that high holds, then we may be looking at a b-wave high at 2940, which would lead to the black "or (B)" on the chart above.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Bears Pull a Tennesse Titans (Super Bowl XXXIV)

Well, as of last update, bears had a chance to put the finishing blow on the market -- but they dropped the ball and bulls have run with it since.  Today's open is thus going to create two options:

1. A sizeable bull nest up from this month's low.  That option would see a strong, sustained rally to new all-time highs.
2. A very complex corrective wave.  For this option, bears will need to slow the current momentum and then reverse the market.  There are implications for a broadening trading range if they can manage this, and we'll address that in more detail if bears turn the market back down.  

This means that bears are in a potentially dangerous position, because of Option 1, and may be wise to await an impulsive decline before acting with force again.  Note that even if this is black bear (C) that it could run higher than shown.

One market that's been bothering me (for a few weeks) for the bear case is the Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX).  The current pattern appears to have "too many waves up" -- which is the expression I use when a pattern appears to need further upside (or downside for "too many waves down") to resolve.  Nothing's impossible, but it would at least be somewhat unusual for BKX to leave the high at 103.40 unresolved.  I've been ignoring this market in favor of SPX, but with SPX now breaking out without making a new low, this has to be viewed with caution by die-hard bears, at least unless/until there's a solid impulsive reversal in SPX.

In conclusion, bears were stopped short on the one yard line, and bulls are back in the game for now.  There are still multiple bear options, but be aware that there is at least significant bullish potential energy in the current breakout -- if bulls can sustain it.  If bears can whipsaw it fairly directly, then their best case scenarios will remain alive.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Advantage Bears...

Short on time this morning, so let's get right to the charts.

SPX is starting to get that "all roads lead lower" look.  Bulls need to sustain a breakout over 2945 to start to potentially defuse this:

Bigger picture, we're still in an inflection zone, but I did want to take a look at what I perceive to be the "most bearish" scenario, which would lead to a trip below the 2018 lows:

In conclusion, bears seem to still have the edge at this point, so we'll continue to treat this as a down trend until proven otherwise.  Trade safe.

Forum Update

The forum is being restored, and I've been told that process might take 24 hours or so.  Thanks again for your patience.

FORUM ISSUE

Please note that the forum is temporarily down and will be restored as soon as possible (likely tonight).  In the meantime, feel free to utilize the Disqus comment section, which can be found immediately below the most recent SPX Update.

Thanks for your patience!

SPX Update

Last update noted that I was going to treat the high at 2939 SPX as ALL OF C until proven otherwise, and that approach paid off in Friday's session, as shorting the bounces turned out to be a gift for bears.

We're getting into another inflection zone here -- in fact, ES reached the first inflection zone during the overnight session (and sometimes that's good enough for the cash market, too):

[Note: TYPO "2915-25" should be "2815-25"]

In conclusion, ES has bounced from the overnight lows, so we're going to open higher.  My first instinct is that cash will probably (but I can't guarantee this) revisit those lows to test the inflection zone for itself.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: A Good Day to Despise Technology!

I typed a much longer article, then, a few minutes ago, hit the "backspace" key, apparently at the wrong time, and Blogger deleted ALL of it, then immediate autosaved ONE WORD in its place.

At this point, I don't have time to retype it all before the open.

Bottom line is that the market still has multiple options here:

In conclusion, ALL OF (C) could have completed, but there are other options at the moment, so we'll simply have to track this in real time as it unfolds.  Trade safe.