Forum Issues -- RESOLVED

NOTE:  Forum is now back online

My host keeps running an update script that is crashing the forums.  We'll work on solving this during the weekend.  Keep checking here for forum status updates.  In the meantime, feel free to post discussion below (via Disqus), if so inclined.

SPX Update

Yesterday, SPX made a new ATH, which means the market did indeed form the most rare pattern at this degree -- the ultra-rare triple-three (WXYXZ).  I don't think I've seen more than a dozen triple threes in the past two decades, and certainly not at this degree.

This also means that my original read of Feb. 17 of a b-wave at the high was correct -- but due to the rarity of the subsequent pattern, the market sure made me second guess that first read.

So where are we now?  There are two possibilities:

1.  Yesterday's new high was/is part of a fifth wave (standard or extended; bulls would need to keep making new ATHs for this iteration of an extended fifth to stay on the table, obviously).

2.  Yesterday's high was wave C of a complex flat (discussed previously).

In conclusion, it's enough to be aware of the options at this stage; we'll need a bit more from the market to parse them.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

So yesterday's high is a bit of an inflection, but so far, the decline from that high has not overlapped any meaningful levels, so nothing new to report:

In conclusion, at this point, the options remain numerous, and so far, bulls seem to be running with the WXYXZ as shown on the chart -- so I'm just tracking the additional options in real-time on the forum (noted yesterday's high as an inflection when we reached it, just before the large drop).  I'll continue to do so until we have a more concrete development -- but stay aware that for bulls, the next relevant level is the dashed black trend line overhead, while the thicker dashed blue trend line below is the next relevant level for bears to claim and hold.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: One for da Bullz

Last update, we discussed the downside inflection that had been reached, and not much has changed since then, as the market continued to hold that inflection.  For reference sake, I did draw up a chart to show the potential intermediate bull count:

[note the typo on the chart below:  "restetsstestsershonish" (or whatever it says) should be "retests"]

Here's a quick repeat of the inflection zone chart published last update, as it shows why last week's low is important for bears to claim:

So far, SPX is working on three up... whether that three up will become impulsive or not remains to be seen.  If it does become impulsive, then we'll have to give additional weight to the bull count -- though the expanded flat mentioned on Friday will still be on the table (more on that if/when it become appropriate).  Trade safe.

SPX and Gold Updates: Been a Great Week for Bears

Last update noted that the rally could be over (for now) via a big WXY, and that count was confirmed with dramatic new lows yesterday.

There are multiple potential counts in this position, so we're going to focus on "keeping it simple" via trendlines today.  We'll start with the near-term SPX chart:

Bigger picture, it's easy to see why SPX is bouncing from yesterday's low:

Also realized there was a typo on the gold chart, so wanted to update that.  Gold reached its minimum downside target yesterday, with its test of the blue/black confluence (but, as noted on 2/28, may still have farther to run):

In conclusion, on Friday, I published "Is the Party Over?" and so far the market is doing everything in its power to agree that the party may indeed be over.  Sure, bears still don't have long-term confirmation... but as I intimated in that piece, the nature of the market is such that by the time there's "confirmation," pretty much everyone is on board.  That said:  On the flip side of my own sentiment (which is "bearish"), SPX did test an important zone yesterday, and bears do need to claim that zone for early confirmation.  Especially if the Fed steps in with more QE.  Trade safe.  

SPX Update

The market generated quite a bounce from its first downside inflection zone, but it did complete one potential pattern before the close on Monday (a complex WXY).  After the session on Monday, I published the following chart in the forums:

This makes Monday's high an important inflection for bulls.  Thee chart below (published in Monday's update) has also proven useful:

Finally, bigger picture, bears need to sustain a break at the rising black trendline:

In conclusion, if Monday's high holds, there is at least the potential for this to be a massive bear nest.  And if that high holds, at the very least, we should retest/break last week's low.  If 3914 doesn't hold, we'll likely revisit the zone near the ATH.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: First Downside Inflection

Last update discussed some of the things bears would need to do next to help give them greater confidence, and Friday tested a couple of those first zones, but (so far) held.  NYA provides first case in point:

Thanks to the nature of expanded flats, SPX has left open too many potential patterns:

In conclusion, we're near/at some of the (first) downside inflections discussed on Friday, so bears and bulls alike need to be prepared for possible market "shenanigans."  Recall that inflection zones are always potential reversal zones.  Trade safe.