SPX and NYA Updates

 Last update, I wrote:

So my endless string of weird issues with Stockcharts continues. Today, for some reason, I couldn't download anything, so I had to take screenshots -- so if the charts seem to be missing portions, you can thank Stockcharts.

And there's been no change to that portion of the update.  As far as the market goes, we have now whipsawed the black breakout and traveled down into the upper edge of the "bull 2 of iii of (v)" option that I noted a while back.  It should be noted that, as a potential second wave, there is no hard zone except green "bull:ii."  This is part of the reason why, on September 1, I opined that this pattern, if it occurred, would be "harder to trade."

[also, note that black (v) should be at the ATH, obviously, not sure how I overlooked that!]

So, since there's no hard price zone (anywhere nearby, that is), we'll have to work with the near-term patterns as best we can.  Starting with:

Below yesterday's low would suggest a trip to the 4472-80 zone at the minimum, and a minor (near-term) waterfall at the maximum, potentially rather quickly down to 4445-56.

NYA (next) is not quite to the black rising line:

In conclusion, yesterday's low is the first zone bears want to claim -- this would help them near term, with room for even a near-term waterfall, but would still leave things up in the air at the larger time frames... for now.  Do continue to keep in mind that the ATH does mark a potential MAJOR inflection zone, inasmuch as it could have completed an ending diagonal fifth (as we previously discussed -- thus, "major" as in:  It was a possible "end of the 12 year bull market" wave).  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates

So my endless string of weird issues with Stockcharts continues.  Today, for some reason, I couldn't download anything, so I had to take screenshots -- so if the charts seem to be missing portions, you can thank Stockcharts.

First off, SPX has slightly whipsawed its black line:

And NYA has done the same:

Bulls would like to recover these lines, or risk the breakout being a head-fake.  Other than that, not much to add, as we've already discussed these options in detail in prior updates.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates

"Politicians to the left of me,

Bankers to the right,

Here I am... stuck in the middle with you."

-- SPX, Greatest Hits (Remastered for 2021)

SPX has finally broken above black, but near-term, has remained stuck between the next trend lines:

NYA looks eerily similar:

In conclusion, SPX and NYA are holding their own so far, but bulls are not entirely in the clear just yet, so no real change from last update, where I wrote:  

[T]he "standard" fifth target zone of June 7 (4480-4550) has been almost fully captured now, placing SPX at a decision point (see first chart). While a whipsaw of black wouldn't be the end of the world for bulls (see smaller subdividing bull 1 of iii of (v) option), it could be a warning of more bearish things to come, and thus harder to trade -- accordingly, bulls would like to see this back test of black hold for the near-term.

While I know everyone wants to know exactly what's next, there are simply some times where we have to let the market communicate.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: Decision Time

 On August 25, I wrote:

Wave iv (not its real name) could, of course, become even more complex -- but that may have been enough chop for now. A sustained breakout over black likely gets us to at least 4530-50, possibly much higher if 5 chooses to extend.

And, after the prescribed breakout over black, that target was captured on Monday, with SPX tagging ~4537.  This has left SPX in an interesting position:

(Note:  Typo -- should read "4480-4495"!  Not "4480-4995," for crying out loud.)

Bigger picture, we may finally be getting close to learning if this wave wants to extend or not:

NYA still hasn't managed a breakout over the first red line, so that's relevant for now:

In conclusion, the "standard" fifth target zone of June 7 (4480-4550) has been almost fully captured now, placing SPX at a decision point (see first chart).  While a whipsaw of black wouldn't be the end of the world for bulls (see smaller subdividing bull 1 of iii of (v) option), it could be a warning of more bearish things to come, and thus harder to trade -- accordingly, bulls would like to see this back test of black hold for the near-term.

On an unrelated note, this year marks the 20th anniversary of 9/11, and I can highly recommend National Geographic's new 9/11: One Day in America miniseries.  My wife and I have almost finished watching the series, and it does justice to the great men and women who suffered through that tragic day.

Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates

On Friday, I warned that bulls needed to get moving, and SPX rallied to new ATHs, but then stalled at the oft-discussed black trend line:

NYA rallied up to red:

This week could finally resolve this months-long range. SPX is still sitting inside its target/inflection zone, so bears still have a shot to push back, but if they can't offer resistance, a sustained breakout has the potential to trigger the market into an extended fifth.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: One for the Bears

Last update noted that a sustained breakout over the long-running black trend line should get SPX into the upper portion of the standing target range (4880-4550 is the range from June 7) -- but it again failed to break out.  This brings up another point:  We are still inside the Wave 5 target range from June 7!  And that means bulls should not be complacent here, because the current wave has done what it needed to for now, and does not "need" to continue to rally.

I wanted to take another look at the hourly chart, and lo and behold, it's not even a stretch to fit a diagonal onto this pattern; it actually fits rather easily:

Looking at the above chart, we can see there are now two valid ways to count us as in a fifth wave (at the degree shown above), so bulls are almost into territory where they NEED an extension to keep this rally going.

No change on the long-term chart, but we did rally almost to the middle of the target range... so we don't "need" to keep going; the minimum requirements have already been met:

NYA is interesting as well:

In conclusion, while it may be hard not to get lulled into complacency here, we should remain mindful that the market is into its upside target zone, which is territory where bulls are going to need to prove themselves with a sustained breakout, both in NYA and SPX.  If they can't, then we can see that the downside potential is not insignificant.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

On Monday, SPX made a new ATH, thus fulfilling the prediction for a complex iv:

Wave iv (not its real name) could, of course, become even more complex -- but that may have been enough chop for now.  A sustained breakout over black likely gets us to at least 4530-50, possibly much higher if 5 chooses to extend.

Bigger picture, no change, and red held the decline:

In conclusion, the prediction for a complex iv played out... barring the market adding another complex wave onto the existing correction, we could head higher, into the next target zone, over the coming sessions.  Trade safe.