Commentary and chart analysis featuring Elliott Wave Theory, classic TA, and frequent doses of sarcasm.
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Wednesday, October 6, 2021
SPX, TRAN, COMPQ: On the Line
Monday, October 4, 2021
SPX Update: Reviving an Old Chart
Friday, October 1, 2021
SPX, TLT, TRAN Updates
On September 27, I suggested the possibility of a 3-3-5 flat that would retest the 4305 zone before bouncing back up. Yesterday culminated with a perfect test of the low. We'll discuss that further in a moment, but first, let's take a quick look at this unique, high-tech interactive chart that visually depicts the market's price action from the past couple weeks:
All kidding aside, it's interesting to note that ES (e-mini S&P futures) made a new low in the overnight session, which suggests that even if bulls do get a bounce here, we're probably all-but destined to head back to this low (as the 3-3-5 count suggested all along):
Near term chart:
Bonus TRAN update:
And TLT update:
In conclusion, everything continues to break the right way for bears. While we still can't entirely rule bulls out, this is about "as good as it gets" for bears at this stage, and the question seems to continue to be "down now or down later." Trade safe.
Wednesday, September 29, 2021
SPX Update: So Far, So Good
On September 24, I highlighted the potentially-complete three-wave rally to 4465 and explained that level could be for "All the Marbles"
SPX ended up staging a strong rally from the ~4300 support zone, but has so far only rallied in three waves. The next few sessions may thus end up being for all the marbles.
We now know that inflection zone was correctly identified, as SPX held that zone and sold off hard yesterday. This is something we haven't seen too often since March 2020: A V-bottom that sees a subsequent strong sell-off. This suggests a potential change of character for the market -- and while not "confirmed" yet, this is in line with our suspicions.
Bigger picture:
In conclusion, if SPX breaks the 4305 low, the alternate bull count will become harder to defend. Bulls will still have the option of a large flat, as noted, but it will be as close as we can get to early "confirmation" of the larger suspected bear move. Trade safe.
Monday, September 27, 2021
SPX Update
Not much happened on Friday, with the market spending most of the day range-bound, so there's little to glean from that. Futures made a new high in the overnight, but cash is ultimately king.
Nothing new on the intermediate term chart:
In conclusion, we're in much the same place we were Friday, with the addition of the knowledge that ES futures made a new high -- and that might give bears at least some cause for caution. That said, cash matters more than futures, so we'll see how the market reacts today. Trade safe.
Friday, September 24, 2021
SPX Update: All the Marbles?
SPX ended up staging a strong rally from the ~4300 support zone, but has so far only rallied in three waves. The next few sessions may thus end up being for all the marbles.
Rejected at the red upper channel boundary on the larger chart:
In conclusion, the charts say it all, and "the fate of the free world" may hinge on the next few sessions. Trade safe.
Wednesday, September 22, 2021
SPX Update: No Material Change
So far, nothing to add to last update, except to update the charts:
Closer view:
In conclusion, no material change from last update -- so far, anyway. For information sake: If bulls were to sustain trade above the 4450 zone, it might get a little tougher. Trade safe.