NYA and SPX: Targets 1 and 2 Captured

Last update provided some near-term targets for SPX, which were both subsequently captured, with Target 2 then providing support:

Big picture, there's no change and there's just nothing new to say about these big picture charts yet:

SPX:

In conclusion, the market has (so far) reversed from its upside inflection, but now we're watching to see how that develops to determine whether it helps add confidence to blue 2/3 or not.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates

Since last update, SPX managed to make an ever-so-slight new high for this move and then closed up a whopping 4 points (well, almost), continuing its trend of not trending.

So, still not a ton to add here, though I did create a near-term chart, since I could.  

Blue 3 remains on the table, by a hair:

And NYA stalled again at the upper edge of its inflection zone:

Not much else to say about this market, but at least we have some near-term targets to watch.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, BKX Updates

SPX closed Friday's session down 8 points, leaving everything in pretty much the same place it was. 

NYA was rejected from the 15,700ish zone on Friday's attempt, so we'll see if that's permanent or temporary:

BKX has formed three waves up from its recent low (could still be in progress).  The bigger question here is whether the entire decline marked a complete 5 down, or if we're in the midst of a nested third wave.  Both options are longer-term bearish, but the first option could be near-term bullish.

Finally, SPX has so far remained below the meaningful level (4196), so blue 2 is still hanging on as an option:

In conclusion, blue 3 is running out of real estate, but still on the table, so if it's going to show up, then it needs to start soon.  The decline off Friday's high may have been impulsive, and so far, there's only three waves back up off Friday's low -- so this is something to watch early in the week.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates

The market has continued to lurch around for the past week, making little progress, but not giving up its gains yet either:

NYA tagged the red horizontal.  As noted previously, the current inflection zone stretches up to roughly 15,700:

In conclusion, still not much to add to the recent updates.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, Oil, and the Fed: Catalyst Pending?

In Monday's update (which was published Sunday night), I wrote:  

I'm inclined to lean toward Friday's low being a b-wave, so suspect that low will be revisited/broken early this week.

I feel I need to mention that at the time I published that, futures were still trading in the ballpark of Friday's high.  After I published, futures headed sharply lower -- then, by the cash open, the market gapped down and revisited Friday's low.  So that was a hit and (when I actually made and published the call) was harder than it looked -- it just didn't end up being of much practical use for cash traders, unfortunately.  

After revisiting Friday's low, the market immediately began rallying, which continued until late in the session yesterday.  Which means SPX is back to roughly the same price it was on Friday.  Which means there's not a lot new to say yet.

Unlike SPX, NYA did manage to break a bit past its blue target.  It remains within the current inflection zone until roughly 15,700+/-.

Oil has continued rallying since last month's update:

In related news, the Fed's balance sheet spiked by about $400 billion from March 8 to March 22:

A little of that spike did roll off since March 22, but we'll all be waiting with bated breath to find out whether we're still "fighting inflation" -- or have decided to go back to fueling it.  Interesting that they spent a year gradually and painstakingly rolling off the balance sheet, only to add half of it back in only two weeks.

I'm reminded of something I wrote in July of 2021:

The Federal Reserve has at last painted itself into its final corner -- or, to use another, perhaps more apt, metaphor: The Fed has placed itself on a treadmill from which there is no escape. There appears to be nothing it can do from here (other than a very modest taper) that won't immediately tank the markets. Even talk of such things spooks investors, which is why Powell has been so dovish of late. The Fed must keep rates low. It must continue QE (in one form or another) and continue buying Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed-Securities. The Fed cannot do anything but keep running at or near its current pace in perpetuity. 

The Fed's new reality is like a treadmill-based parody of the movie Speed: If the Fed slows down too much, the market will implode, killing innocent economies in the process.

We just got a taste of exactly that with the SVB (et al) collapse.  The Fed had to Speed up again, or risk more serious issues in the banking sector snowballing into a juggernaut.  And that "catastrophe averted" was after the aforementioned modest taper.

And then that reminded me of something else from the same piece: 

The Fed likes to talk about its "tools," but all its tools are currently running at full capacity just to keep the market from collapsing under its own weight. There are no more tools to call upon. 

All it will take is a catalyst. 

Later, people will blame the catalyst as if it were the "cause" (you and I know they will do this because they do it every time) -- but we'll know it was not the cause. Our short-sighted choices were the cause. Our inability to recognize, appreciate, and properly manage our good-fortune was the cause. 

In short, we ourselves were the cause. We have met the enemy, and he is us. The catalyst will only be the trigger that forces the reckoning.

Last month, the market was all ready to begin collapsing under its own weight, but then the Fed ramped its "tools" right back up to "full capacity" and saved the day.  

And all this made me again wonder about the second portion of the outlined equation, and to wonder if that's what the market is waiting on:  A catalyst.  China invades Taiwan, Russia uses nukes, commercial real estate collapses, that sort of thing.  In other words, something that exposes just how weak and unprepared we really are right now.

Just food for thought.  We'll see what the market does to close out the week.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: A Million Miles (a Million Miles)

Since last update, the market has continued its near-term churning within its even larger "lost year" of churning.  I'm inclined to lean toward Friday's low being a b-wave, so suspect that low will be revisited/broken early this week.  If that's correct, it would keep the most bearish options on the table:

Of course, after a ~year in a trading range, it gets hard to imagine the market doing anything other than running sideways for another 600 years, but that's how they getcha!

NYA does have a potentially-complete c (or 3) rally on the board:

In conclusion, everyone has had about enough of this endless grind, so we'll see if the market is ready to start doing something finally.  It's at least worth mentioning that in the most bearish world, this setup would be exceedingly bearish; we'll see if the market negates this setup or not.  Until then, there's just not much else to add.  Trade safe.

SPX: "Clowns to the Left of Me, Jokers to the Right... Here I Am, Stuck in the Middle with Glue"

I think we only need one chart today.  Weeks ago, I said that "unless/until blue 2 is broken, we're going to presume we're in blue ii," and we're now at the "do or die" stage of that presumption, since blue 2 is not far overhead.  So while Red 2 remains possible, it doesn't gain significant traction until blue 2 is broken.

In conclusion, SPX remains in the light blue circle inflection zone, so it remains to be seen if this will generate a reaction.  If this is blue ii, then a reversal should be on the horizon.  If it isn't, then it isn't, and we may know that soon enough, too.  This market has been tough because we've been stuck in a trading range for almost a year now, and patterns get increasingly difficult the longer a range continues.  Trade safe.