SPX and COMPQ Update: The COMPQ Chart Knew It

Three months ago now, I started suggesting that COMPQ's low was a b-wave -- and then the market got weirder and weirder, so it got to the point where I was no longer sure (not that I'm ever "sure," but you know what I mean).

But it turns out that this chart was right all along.  COMPQ actually nailed the black C-wave label as originally drawn, ending yesterday's session just above it -- but I moved it lower and a little to the right today, since it might need more down.

SPX, too, has finally vindicated my belief that the crazy pattern back in June and July was not an Elliott triangle.  In real time, I went on the record stating why it didn't work as a true Elliot triangle.  Then it rallied like crazy, but even after the rally, I stuck to my guns (because it was, in my view, clearly not a triangle) and said it was either a rare running flat or a b-wave low.  

Some readers were upset that I "missed" the "triangle" -- and I get that, losing money sucks.  But it was never a triangle and that's what stops are for.  I read it right, but B-wave lows such as this one are simply unpredictable ahead of time -- and hence they often catch everyone off guard because they end earlier than every other pattern would end.  That's simply the nature of the beast.

In conclusion, turns out that -- despite how annoying and unpredictable this market has been -- my best guess reads were largely accurate.  At this point, SPX does look like it probably needs some more down to complete its pattern... though be aware that they can always turn this into another b-wave low and temporarily end it shy of where it "should" end.  There are no perfect systems that can foresee everything, there are only probabilities.  Trade safe.