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Sunday, April 1, 2012

Almost "Everything" Update: Short to Long-Term Outlooks Across Markets -- and a Striking Analog

Early last week, the structure of the waves suddenly looked quite bullish -- however the market has, so far, failed to follow through, which is causing me to re-examine this outlook. 

Normally, one can determine the next higher degree of trend by determining which structures are impulsive, and which structures are corrective.  The challenge right now is that the last 3 waves, both up and down, all appear reasonably impulsive.  This could be indicitive of an undecided market. 

I can't tell you how many hours I've spent charting during this weekend, but it seems like four or five hundred.  Even though the market yutzed around a bit on Friday, it still seems to me that unless the bears can push through and take out the prior swing lows, the bulls have an excellent shot at sling-shotting the market to new highs.  Let's examine the evidence together.

Short-term Outlook

The conventional impulse count would view this as a nest of 1's and 2's, which means that it's just about time for the bulls to run with the ball here, early this week.  If they don't, then it will be prudent to give more serious consideration to other potentials. 

I want to start off with the short term Dow chart, because it shows the relevent conundrum of how the last three waves all appear basically impulsive.  Despite that, in just looking at the very short-term charts of Dow and SPX, I'm inclined to continue to give the edge to the bulls.  One of the reasons is mentioned on the chart. 

There are some bigger picture factors which we'll discuss in more detail further along.


Next, the SPX preferred count.


The hypothetical ending diagonal is next.  We'll continue to watch this as a potential. 

Based on the big picture discussed further along in the article, I continue to believe this is an excellent and viable option.


I also wanted to provide an update on Chevron (CVX).  It is unclear whether Chevron has completed 5 waves down in a fifth wave failure, or whether this bounce is still part of a flat 4th wave correction.  I'm leaning toward the 4th wave correction interpretation.


Next, an update on silver, now that I'm able to project some more exact potential short-term targets.


A quick big picture glance at silver below.  Silver bulls will note the potential of a much larger inverted head and shoulders pattern, going back to October.


Next the RUT, which is in a similar position to everything else.  This still appears to be the wind-up for a move higher.  If this is a nest of 1's and 2's, then the next wave higher should show some solid momentum.  If the move doesn't show this, then we'll give more consideration to the alternates.


Short term NYA chart below -- pretty much the same deal there.  This chart isn't labeled with the ending diagonal count, but that count is currently my first alternate.  I consider the more bearish alternate count show below (in black) as less likely.



When to Get Bearish

Most of the above charts are labeled with invalidation levels, but below are a few more things to watch.  If the bears did break these key levels, then things could get ugly fast.



Below is a short-term SPX chart which shows the more immediately bearish potentials.  I'm not favoring the ultra-bearish view, due to the "extra" leg up shown early last week -- which in my mind, continues to ultimately point the way higher one way or another.  As mentioned, though, if bears can take out some of those key lows, then that would open the way to this type of resolution.

This chart also shows an interesting potential for the ending diagonal count -- in green.  I do tend to believe that if the diagonal is playing out, it will probably follow a path closer to that discussed on the diagonal chart shown earlier, but the option below is still viable. 

If the diagonal's playing out, then they are super-difficult to predict early in the pattern.




The big picture overview continues to show that the bulls are maintaining the recent key breakout levels.  Right click and "open in new window" for the full-size chart.  Until those breakouts are negated, it seems unwise to get overly bearish.




It generally pays for bears to remember the three-t's:  Tops Take Time (TTT).  Not always, of course -- but usually.  Take a look at 2000, 2007, and 2011 on the chart below for examples.


The Very Big Picture

Short term, I remain moderately bullish, for reasons discussed above.  The big picture, however, suggests that equities bulls have their work cut out for them.

(The possible exception to this thought is the dollar, discussed further below.) 

Several markets are approaching, or have reached, very long-term resistance levels.  We'll start with SPX.



Nasdaq also faces resistance, in the form of the 50% retrace off the all-time-high.  Worth noting, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX -- not shown) has now had 13 straight higher closes at the weekly level.  The record is 14.


RUT has also reached long-term resistance, and a potential triple-top zone.


NYA also faces what should be a solid long-term resistance level.


The next NYA and INDU charts (below) don't really fit into the "very big picture" section, but I'm not sure where else to put 'em, so they go here.



Below is an interesting INDU pattern comparison.  If history repeats, it suggests higher prices over the short-term.  Some key levels are marked.



The US Dollar is currently in a position that's actually somewhat encouraging to equities bulls.  It remains beneath long-term support/resistance. 

Based on my wave analysis, I continue to believe the dollar put in a long-term bottom with the 2008 print low -- but this chart bears watching.



Unless equities bulls can take out these levels, which seems unlikely this late in the rally, then it seems that upside is probably limited here.

Okay, deep breath... do I still have more charts?  Lemme check...

Ah yes, saving the best for last.

Speculative

The first chart is interesting, because it shows that Apple has potentially completed a five-wave rally.  It's a bit tricky, due to the lack of clarity regarding the correct labeling for the last correction (wave 4). 

But the potential definitely exists for Apple's top to be in, or very close.  This would, of course, mean the rest of the market would struggle, as also suggested by the big picture charts above. 

I've recently started referring to Apple as The Economy, since it single-handedly accounted for more than half of the 4th quarter profit growth of the entire S&P 500 (as outlined in this article by Matt Nesto).



And finally, my piece de resistance (French -- literally: "really cool chart") for this article.

As I was studying the Nasdaq and the US Dollar this weekend, I couldn't help but notice some striking similarities present within the two monthly charts.  Below is an overlay of the current Nasdaq (going back to the crash) with the dollar after its (government-orchestrated) crash in the 80's. 

After its crash, the dollar spent some time basing, and then retraced right to the 50% level in a convincing rally.  From there, it spent some time topping and then resumed its march to new lows.  The Nasdaq has behaved similarly regarding the basing action, and has also now reached its 50% retrace (as shown earlier). 

I haven't seen this analog discussed anywhere else yet, probably because the two markets just recently "lined up" historically and nobody else has noticed -- but I think it's pretty uncanny.  Of course, the $64,000 question is: going forward, will the Nasdaq follow the same path the dollar did after it hit its 50% retrace?




Conclusion

Over the short-term, I still believe there are likely some marginal new highs to be made, but the pattern leaves a bit to interpretation, and the market does feel like it's topping at some degree.  The next few sessions should help illuminate the short-term path with more clarity. 

The bevy of long-term resistance levels suggest upside is probably limited at best, and I think the longer-term outlook for this market is ultimately bearish.  If bulls can somehow break out convincingly here, then that would certainly call that view into question.

Something that fits into both outlooks is a trip into the 1430's-1440's -- so as of yet, this is still what I'm currently favoring.  Obviously, the flip side of things is that if the bears can stage a convincing breakdown of some key levels, then all bullish bets would be off.  One thing that can be stated with certainty is that the rally is well above the relevant MA's and very long in the tooth; and sentiment has been extreme for a long time now.

For these reasons, I remain somewhat partial to the ending diagonal, which was proposed last week as a hypothetical.  This would allow a choppy upwards grind to slowly frustrate and wipe out everyone -- and would be quite fitting as a larger topping pattern.  Trade safe.

190 comments:

  1. Good evening. 

    Twenty charts, and likely just as many hours this weekend.  I've come to the conclusion that I'm probably not charging enough for this service.  :)

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  2. Talk about impeccable timing.  Pretzel, I haven't even looked at one chart above yet, and I'm refraining from doing so until I post this one for you.  Let's see if there's any way they can work together.   I just want to draw your attention to a 'potentially' outstanding H&S pattern
    developing in the Aussie:Yen currency pair.  If the pattern completes
    and the neckline is broken, the implications are pretty much
    guaranteed.  The correlation between this pair and equities is nearly
    100%.  If the pair falls and breaks that neckline, equities are almost
    assuredly going to drop as well because the appetite for risk will be
    evaporating very quickly.  It would represent the best "short equities"
    signal we've seen so far this year.

    I just posted that chart on my own site with a fair amount of dialogue to go along with it which goes into a fair amount of detail as to why this one is so outstanding.  Just clicking my name would take anybody there who might want to read the dialogue.  For others, the included here is pretty much self explanatory.

    There... now I can look at all your charts and dialogue.  There's nothing quite like being objective, right?  I'll take this opportunity to thank you now for another outstanding installment which I'm going to read as soon as I click this button that says Post as Alb......

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  3. Awesome work as usual!  I support a service charge.

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  4. Uh oh... I think I'm in the spam bin again.  I feel like such a bad child sometimes, lol.

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  5. What's weird is your post is nowhere to be found.  I got it in my email and saw it wasn't here -- so I went and checked Disqus etc., but it has vanished into the ether.  I'll check again.

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  6. That was some nice work - well worth waiting for.... No you are not charging enough for this service...... LOL  Especially like the analog of the Dollar/NASDAQ in view of where we really stand as an economy.  The NASDAQ has always represented to me the health of the small business community in the US.  I don't see it as being so hot and the future ain't looking rosy by any means.  I am thinking that the Macro will take down any Q2 opening day upside by Wed.  So we open up Monday, flat on Tuesday and down on Wed with Thursday being a go nowhere day due to the holiday and position squaring in front of the BLS report released on Friday when Equity Markets are closed.... Yep my vote for the frustrating diagonal is a solid yes........

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  7. hey PL. Un-F-ing believable. This is your best master piece yet. I knew COMPQ was at almost 50% retrace, but seeing it in a graph really made me realize what 50% is and what all the trillion of QE's, LTROs  $$$s have accomplished: just a 50% retrace, c'est ca! It's kinda scary actually. How many more trillions are they gonna spend to get to 100% retrace? One can also clearly see the supper straight QE up-marches. Completely unnatural; that's not how rallies go; they accelerate, not grind at the same ol' - same 'ol speed. Also note the decreasing volume since the '08 crash. Looks to me it's still bear territory big time (at least for the COMPQ), and isn't the decreasing volume a tell tale of bear territory: investors/people loosing interest. And once interest (equals buying) completely dries up, we know the answer. FED knows that tool hence the QEs, etc... Too obvious or what? Anyway, the COMPQ went up way to fast in the 90s, and that needs to be corrected. 

    Also thanks for doing the AAPL chart. I am very pleased to see that the chart I posted last week is in line with yours, although you have a 4 where I have a 2. I now see where I counted wrong. Either way, AAPL seems very toppy indeed, and hasn't much more upside IMHO. I mean look at the negative divergence in the TI's, ugh, looking bad.

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  8. Which is the better book, Elliot's original work or the edited version by Precheter?  Am boning up and seeking an answer to a couple of fundamental questions....  Is the wave count best done on closing price or on bars, candles etc that show the days full range of price?  I was always taught to draw trendlines, support/resistance etc. on a closing basis.  Last fundamental question:  At the end of an impulsive style wave be it up or down, shouldn't there appear an ABC countermove?  Appreciate your help as always.  Thanks again for all that you do.

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  9. If you don't mind.  I sure would like to share what I've discovered regarding that potential dynamite signal from the currency pair.  Alternatively, if your readers just want to click on my name they can see it all in the latest chart about the Aussie:Yen currency cross.  I think a terrific "sell" signal may be in the works with an outstanding signal that may be about to emerge which says "RISK IS OFF".  We'll probably need another day or two for confirmation but it's shaping up very, very nicely so far.

    In the meantime, in support of your "air pocket" thesis, I'd like to offer this "Price by Volume" chart.  I find these to be very good at identifying price zones where the index or equity in question usually slices right through like a hot knife through buttah.  Very quickly.  I had to use SPY as a proxy for the S&P in order to get the volume metrics I needed.  But the correlation between the two is excellent of course, so this should pan out very well.

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  10. Prechter's book is probably the better introduction.  If possible, be sure and order it through my Amazon link on the right.  :)

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  11. Re AAPL:  You might also want to consider the ratio between AAPL and the NDX.  Because when it rolls over the NDX is in a heap of trouble.  For example, on Friday had AAPL performed exactly the same as all the other 99 stocks in the NDX, the NDX would have finished the day flat instead of down .025%.  In other words, the entire drop in the entire NDX  of Friday (albeit fairly small) was attributable entirely the drop in AAPL alone.  It fell 1.69%.

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  12. Excellent work PL!  I feel the market is in a very dangerous place for anyone looking to hold a leveraged position overnight.  Way too mature of a bull market to feel comfortable long - way too high probability of intervention to feel comfortable short...

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  13. Nice charts!  Love the AAPL chart.  Agree with you that whenever AAPL tops out, so will NASDAG.

    As you pointed, the Dollar is stuck beneath support/resistance,, making it possible for equities, gold/silver, and AAPL to make a new high for the very short term.  When the dollar strikes back, all markets may start rolling over together!

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  14. PL, you mentioned that the impulsive waves up and down are indicative of an indecisive market.   It feels like the market is waiting for one of these things to happen before it makes up its mind which way to go:

    1.  If AAPL break above previous high at its usual speed, then the market will go up with it.  If commodities go up, so will the market.
    2.  The return of the Euro crisis when Spanish bond yields hit 6% or higher.
    3.   Bernanke says something. (FOMC meeting April 24/25)
    4.  A black swan event --  Possible attack on Iran and N Korea missile launch have been pushed out for a few months.  Most likely, we won't see this in April.

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  15. Out of shorts with +3.4.  Gap not filled yet but doesn't have to happen same day
    Looking for a long trade now in line with PL charts. 

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  16. I think right here represents the best IT shorting opportunity I have seen in a while. Could be wrong. Stop loss up above 10.25 es.

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  17. a substantial drop right here cements in call below. (4:30 am)

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  18. Fantastic post, PL.  Excellent, as always.  And thank your for including AAPL. :)

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  19. es 04.75 fills the gap. break that and 95-6, break that and 86, break that and bottom will fall out....

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  20. anyone take that short? so obvious.......

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  21. This was supposed to have been in reply to your initial post.  :)

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  22. Keep an eye out for an expanded flat here.  This actually was my preferred count, but I let the green futures open talk me out of it.  One of these days I'll learn to completely ignore ES.

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  23. ty HG.  :)

    I'm thinking $10,000/month.  The downside is I probably wouldn't get very many subscribers.  The upside is, I'd only really need one or two...

    lmao

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  24. How about a contingency fee? :)

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  25.  http://screencast.com/t/0QZycOLcSN

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  26.  that prices me out, oh well back to the Yahoo boards. lol

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  27. next drop comin' up

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  28. Hi PL,
    Havent written in a while, took a break from trading a couple of months ago to concentrate on my day job. You and Katzo made ​​me realize the amount of time you have to devote to be a reasonable semi-good trader , and the experience the two of you have will take me many years to acquire.
    But Im still here, hanging around  reading your blog nearly every day trying to increase my knowledge. Your blog is like an exciting book/film with a cliffhanger almost every day.
    Your post today I have to comment - Sweet baby Jesus what a Chartporn-bonanza. This may be your best post so far PL.

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  29. This is what I think and said this weekend, looking for a gap down this morning in RTHs.

    On the chart I said "this may be an EW4 but the wave is not clean [on
    the ES]. Based on the $RUT chart I think it is a EW5. [meaning that EW 5
    on the top and that 1405.50 es level will hold tight]" I wanted to
    clarify. The $RUT chart has a clean wave, it appears fully ready to go
    down. So while I might be trading off the $RUT set up the ES set up is
    not that apparent yet. It will be very clear early on if there is a down
    set up ahead, I called for a strong gap down, that is one indication.
    As always we have to trade what we see, not what we think.

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  30. Thanks, Daniel -- good to hear from ya.  :)

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  31. Didn't take the ES short, but I took a crack at a DX long off the potential triple bottom -- in at 78.950

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  32. Problem is, I have no faith in any market right now, outside of the next 30 minutes or so, if you know what I mean.

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  33. Thank you for the excellent article PL....I'm in awe.

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  34. bear flag may have finished up, think more down ahead. It has to continue down fairly immediately for me to stay in the trade

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  35. This is a LOT of TRULY EXCELLENT work!! Many thanks to you PL!

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  36. You convinced me back into my shorts.

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  37. dont you think this market is waiting for the datas Ism before moving...is 1406 a place to enter short  or long in yr opinion...
    thks

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  38. I was wrong - the Macro has already apparently dictated direction - was not expecting Europe to bring about a 12 point swing in ES.  1409 to 1401.  Katzo's been killing it all night  - Go Katzo Go..... Support and US data need to bring about a reversal - or this thing is going south......  Have a great trading day all of you and may by nightfall all be prosperous enough to afford the PL fee of 10K.....LOL

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  39. PL - one thing you forgot :) - you need to add a new check-box at the bottom - 'Greatest post ever'.  

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  40. I'll have to wait for the Groupon.

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  41. Good morning PL. It will take me at least a day to digest all this information. By then, it will be too lake to click "good post" so why bother. ;-)

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  42. In conclusion......PL, you have a marvelous mind. Thank you very much for the plethora of charts. Easy to get were one is going when one has an accurate road map. Also kudo's on the CVX trade......and thank you for the chart update. I was lost, but now I'm found.

    FYI....here is my humble attempt to EW chart HPQ. 

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  43. I think PL is stroking his new beard on this one ;-)

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  44. 4 hours later, it looks like you caught a nice move. Congrats!

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  45. Conjures up all kinds of visuals. Where'd I put that aluminum foil....oh yeh, it's on my head already!

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  46.  Regarding Iran & Israel, it is reported that the Israeli Army has not given the customary leave for Passover this year.  Passover starts this Friday at sundown.  This doesn't mean a strike will happen or is more likely, but this has to be considered.  I don't think anyone can say with confidence that the chance has been pushed out for a few months. 

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  47.  Ha! Yahoo boards are the bottom of the barrel.  Like a bunch of 1/4 brained idiots acting like they hold Masters Degrees in Finance calling each other names and accusing everyone opposite of their position to be a 'paid basher'  I find myself looking over them at times and ALWAYS asking myself 'why?!'.  Complete waste of time imho. 

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  48. first time I ever traded ES chart, which is a complete mess, off the $RUT chart. When I have time I will post a chart of 120, remember, that was your homework DRG and you did not do it. lol the key was there, not on the 15.

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  49. EUR falling of a cliff without any equity reaction... if equities don't drop soon (within the first half-hour of trading) maybe the EUR is getting ready for a subsequent rise in stocks?

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  50. Looks like they got it back up to basically flat.  Nice trades tonight, btw.  :)

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  51. Watch for SPX to find support around 1398 (or sooner) -- 1398 would be the expected turn if the expanded flat is playing out.  If it finds support at higher levels, that's bullish of course.

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  52. Many thanks for the intraday comments PL! In my opinion they are e.x.t.r.e.m.e.l.y useful! :-)

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  53. Beautiful analysis PL.  The attach chart may be mentioned in one of your charts but just want to make it clear in IT wave count. Could you comment on this wave count?  Thanks.

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  54. It's possible that all of C completed at the recent high -- but it's not an ending diagonal since 1 and 4 don't overlap. 

    The problem I have with the count is that last little wave up on the Bernanke QE3 talk day... it changes the entire pattern and makes it look incomplete.  iv to v on your chart looks like a 3-wave rally now -- and while it's not impossible for the whole thing to end like that, it just doesn't quite look right.  It could fit the ending diagonal fifth wave I outlined in the article; it could fit as a nest of 1's and 2's; or it could fit as a large b-wave expanded flat for iv.  Much harder to fit it in as the entire fifth wave, though -- again, not impossible, but harder.

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  55. Open long put SPY tight trailing stop and 30 cent rise in SPY.  In at ~1408 on refill.  Off to work, wish me luck (unless you hold bull positions)

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  56. Prolly not gonna get to 1398.  Market looks pretty bullish at the moment. 

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  57. This is the type of upward momentum the preferred count was looking for here -- assuming the bulls can maintain this as the day wears on, then it should be all clear for the targets on the 1st SPX chart (2nd chart in the article).  I wouldn't expect the targets to be hit today -- prolly later in the week.  1420's are pretty do-able today, though.

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  58. Thank you for your comments. I have one question.  I don't think the ending diagonal requires wave 1 and 4 overlap but a 3-3-3-3-3 wave structure.  Please check Elliott Wave Principle (Frost and Prechter) book, 10th edition, 2005, Page 39, Fig. 1-18 that shows no wave 1 and 4 overlap for the ending diagonal.

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  59. SPX channel so far today.  If it breaks one way or the other, watch for a rapid move in that direction.

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  60. Hi PL. I'd appreciate your personalized response on the following:

    I've been long since Wednesday with SPX stops at 1388. Since the ending may still be in play, what would a good stop level be from now on, in order to avoid getting out too early on an "expected" retrace? 1397, 1404 or perhaps higher?

    Of course I am not asking for trading advice... just an opinion! Thanks a lot in advance!

    P.S. Perhaps other people reading this blog may also be interested in this!

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  61. 1408 Es offer résistance for now

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  62. First off: I hate answering this question, because this is a very tricky market right now. 

    But as of this second, 1388 is the only clear swing-trade SL level for your scenario, if you're bullish.  If we get another clear 5-wave impulse somewhere in here, then they can be moved up.

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  63. PL, It would be a shame if your readers weren't able to appropriately gauge the effort that you put into this blog aand the value they get from it.  I am not a professional (or amateur) trader, and I came to your site via Minyanville.  I have tried numerous pay services and found that they interfere too much with my day job!  I found your "Donate" button on my second visit, and decided that I would continue to do so on the first of every month as long as I was visiting the blog.  That said, I am learning a lot by coming here, and would hate to lose the resource if it became too expensive.  At the same time, you need to be properly compensated for your efforts.  Hopefully you can arrive at a user fee that will satisfy all involved.  Maybe a suggested minimum, and see if the "Power User" would pay more?
    Thanks for the great work! 

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  64. Thank you! Oh, and thanks! ;-)

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  65. You're not alone.  It's eery how that happens sometimes.

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  66. Hi PL,
    Fantastic work today!, and  great post as usual.  I'm an amateur trader and depend on your work.  Have a great day and many good trades!

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  67. Thanks, WT.  I'm assuming the donation that just came in was from you?  :)

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  68. PL.....I'm watching CVX minute by minute and using it to improve my EW skills. Oscillators are not confirming this up move and the 50% retrace ( one thru five) is at $108.60. I'd like to think that will be 2 in preparation for wave 3 down to new lows below $104.92, but even if it is wave four up this is a great place to begin scaling in....correct?

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  69. PL  great work as always.  I know we are not supposed to watch the news but I have this feeling that things are slowing down, particularly in China and the EU and that what CNBC fails to discuss is filtering into the market.
    I think I used your donate page correctly but I'm not sure, is there a confirmation page that appears or does it go back to the donate page?

    Matt L

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  70. truerangeballisticApril 2, 2012 at 5:10 AM

    It is the quiet whisper of the CMB (cash money bernank) vacuum sucking the volatility out of this market. This was a remarkable update PL. Thanks for your time and wisdom here.

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  71. Yes, but I'm disappointed that you could pick mine out of the dozens that should have come in!

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  72.  Thanks to JMS for the donation.  :)

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  73. One from JMS and one from WT below -- there's a final button you have to click after you log into Paypal, or the transaction doesn't go through.  You can check you Paypal account to verify -- but it never came through on my end. 

    Not the first time this has happened with folks.  :)

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  74. lol -- unfortunately, it was pretty easy to pick out.  :)

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  75. Your page is good as gold, but at least a silver eagel I felt to start with.

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  76. Many thanks to DLC for the donation -- much appreciated!  :)

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  77. Alright, I'm in need of some rest, I'll catch up w/ everyone later.  :)

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  78. Take it easy Pretz.  Thanks again.

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  79. Well teach, the dog ate the chart...... I spilled my coffee on it..... Actually, could not get my software to give a 120 chart I could post. That was frustrating as all get out - did the best I could with what I had. And really I do have a crayon eating dog..... Lol

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  80. T-Wynn and TRB, gonna get a long entry point in AMZN AT 198-197.30 area. The ABC correction of the up trade appears near completion. It's gonna pause at 201 relative to 200 day SMA so ST trade is simply long 195 or 200 call and let it go to the SMA test point.

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  81. Nenner:

    S&P/Nasdaq

     

    For the first time since Oct of
    2011, the overall technical model is showing some weakness. But not enough to
    change our forecast.

     

    Markets can continue up until the
    cycle high

    around APR 19, and our upside price
    target is still around 1449

     

    As long as the S&P does not
    close below 1384, the Nasdaq does not close

    below 2730, and the Dow Jones does
    not close below 13000, the buy signal

    continues.

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  82. RockyTopGunner. Am buyin NFLX here at uptrend line from cup bottom through handle formation.

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  83. Coppa' right at upper resistance (3.92-3.93) of triangle - breakout here could go to min 4.15ish or it could be a tease.

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  84. AAPL stalling at 615. Appears to be creating right shoulder on 60 min chart. Draw a line through last two dips to 595 and 598 and that should be the magic line. Trades bouncing off that line should run to upside for the moment. The trade that breaks that line sets off a bearish move to cover gaps @ 585 and 575 to 565

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  85. Last lunch post here, RUT frustration point "a" CHECK. Frustration point "b" on deck. Looking for 840 as exit point on my long trade. Should provide time to reassess and plan for a short entry to frustration point "c"

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  86. Thanks.  I was long AMZN at 182 and sold at 205.   I'm considering getting back in again so your info is helpful.   Your target of recent high 210 is reasonable...could be up to 220 if overall market continues its bullish trend.

    But there seems to be an inverse relationship between AMZN and AAPL.  Looks like AAPL will make new high by tomorrow which may help AMZN to get down to the .618 retracement.  So I'll wait until tomorrow on this. 

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  87. Interesting analysis of the ECRI recession call, with references to additional sources:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/471921-ecri-weekly-leading-indicator-is-poised-for-growth

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  88. Looks like the bulls are back in charge again this morning. Think that finally we'll see the SP500 hitting 1425 this week.
    Think it's time to cash out my chips.

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  89. truerangeballisticApril 2, 2012 at 7:35 AM

    DRG, sittin on the fence here and waiting for the RUT to break 838.37. I had an IHS forming on the 1 minute chart with a target of 848 on the break. If it stops in the 843 area then when have a nice HS forming on the 15 min chart. Other than that I am long still till 843 then close out. Sorry I did not look at AMZN. I don't have much of an idea on that one. Your butterfly should be doing well though. Also there was a lot of buying on weakness in AMZN on the WSJ money page. Could pop per T-Winn idea. Best of trades to both of you. PL's whipsaw has me sittin on my hands here.

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  90. Quote of the day: "What keeps the market going? Liquidity. We are up to our eyeballs with liquidity." - a market analyst.

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  91. looks like you are the bull on this site. nice work. been following a few bears and am getting wiped out...
    tvix has buried my portfolio along with shorting spx for last 2 months. what is next level evo. all time highs dunno

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  92. Pretzel Logic's Aggressive Yield - Dynamically Outperforming Hedgefund --- or PLAY-DOH.
    2 and 20 is fine with me...where do I sign?

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  93. The tide will turn eventually. At this level I'm not sure how much upside potential the market still has left.
    This liquidity driven market will eventually dry up. What goes up must come down. Hope you make out well when the market finally turns.

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  94. PL, it's probably quiet in here 'cause everybody is still reading your post-a-vaganca and going over your 20 charts! D A N G. I am still digesting the masterpiece: COMP vs USD. Still having some difficulties with it, which probably is due to the "adjusted" timelines.

    Anyway, I'll state it again: This market is IMHO still easiest traded as a BTFD (until proven otherwise). Note that at the end of the week there's a nice (possible) confluence of resistance levels at around 1,440 (LT descending trendline with current ascending trendline). Wouldn't that be a sweet spot for this to start topping for real!? I am still long, and will scale of once 1430s are hit. NOT TRADING ADVICE, just my personal strategy.

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  95. If we stay here (or above) at 13,290, then we have hit or passed the KO count for bears (chart 1).
    Still, Mercury is retrograde, so we could get tricked. 

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  96. Here comes the squeeze play...

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  97. Impressive Bob-E; CVX HOD 108.79, good call. Retracement wave hopefully done. Now ready to embark on wave 3  and now cash in on the way down.Thank you for the update.

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  98. I guess the fun begins now.....CVX hit PL's green box and is taking a rest. IF, that was 2 then we should see the beginnings of a shear drop off in that this leg down would be the beginning of wave 3, or at the min the completion of wave 5 down. Could be exciting.

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  99. How did you make out on your ITM call ops.....the 110's nearly tripled.

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  100. BTFD = Buy the fantastic dip?

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  101. Did excellent bought at 1PM LOD Friday and sold today at at HOD. But what I am really looking forward and positionned for is 105.00  down . Sometimes calculated  risk on pays off; key word being calculated. How about yourself do you have any position in CVX?

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  102. FYI...here is what happened to the CVX calls, calculated from the bottom on 3/29 at noon.

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  103. Ya gotta love that Mercury....

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  104. I like graphing the market by hand...you know, the old paper and pencil way. Because this has been such a LONG run, I moved my graph onto the side of my house, in order to give me more room. Here's a picture of me putting in the top today.

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  105. No...sat and watched CVX bottom at $104.92, saw the oscillators non-conf, but held out for the measured move of $103. Learning is a Bitch. Opportunities are just like buses though...another one coming in about 5 minutes. Glad ya scored on the ops.....take some money away from the big boys.

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  106. VIX report if anyone wants it..
     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dcA8HZPNYE&list=UU83RU3yDhHwzG9d9LD1x5yQ&index=2&feature=plcp

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  107. I liked ya better "billa" when you were straight up - now you're just a complete idiot. What's the point, really?
    .telling.period

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  108. Jason do you think it is possible for today's high to be the top of (III) on your ascending diagonal?

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  109. Also learning myself, in matter of fact you just made me realize according to your % graph that I left 16% profit on the table by not getting the higher strike. Lesson learned! You are right there is always another bus (opportunities), the trick is not getting in front of it! Yep take money from the big boys and take care of Pretz for his CVX lead and also all his hard work.

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  110. I think you might need one more cinder block, but maybe two just to be safe ; )

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  111. It is possible.  Right now, it would make a pretty good a=c relationship for iii.  I'll have to look at everything in more detail.  Right now, the wife wants to take our youngest to get pictures w/ the Humongous and Possibly Rabid Easter Bunny at the mall.

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  112. Many thanks to J.L. for the donation today!

    Big thanks to P.Z. for the donation today!

    and thanks to J.W. for the donation today!

    Appreciate each of you very much -- and thanks again to those who donated earlier.  :)

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  113. I'm ashamed to admit that this looks a lot like something I did once, years ago...

    Necessity is the mother of invention!  And youth is the mother of stupidity!

    I did escape unscathed, though.  :)

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  114. 1420's tagged, as suggested early this morning...

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  115. ru the only bull on this site. the author seems to be way toooo bearish for me. thunking of buying 1000 shares of apple but only  if it hits $1000. you thunk thats a good idea. dunno

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  116. Bought a sh*it pot full of Bitcoins today, will you be accepting those in the future - looks to be a real stable investment, akin to a wattress passing on a $10 tip for a stake in a lottery ticket.

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  117. lmao -- I dunno, I might be.  But I *was* kinda piggy-backing the author's call for the 1430's-1440's...

    As far as the Apple trade, you might want to consider a new company called "Pear."  They have a few products about to hit the market.  Some of their innovations include:

    The ayePhone (for Pirates)

    The eyePad (this has medical applications, but can also be used by Pirates)

    and The iStone Tablet (which translates everything into Cuneiform)

    Pretty sure that Pear is the next big thing .  And the best thing is, the stock is currently trading at zero, since I made it up!   So you can buy as *much* of it as you want for absolutely nothing!  The only bad thing is that you won't profit at all when it doubles and triples, as I'm fully anticipating that it will...   

    (As you may have guessed, my wife is taking FOREVER to get ready, so I have enough time to reply, but am afraid to start any real work, lol)

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  118. You really shouldn't piggy-back the author without giving him credit at that time.  I am ashamed of you!

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  119. Do you have to go through the fashion show experience in preparation to leave the house too? I don/t even know why the Mrs. even picks out clothes the night before,,,it's not what she's gonna wear anyway...

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  120. Why it's hard to be overly bearish:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/46923999 
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-you-sell-in-april-2012-04-02?link=MW_popular 
    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903715504577305564002729208.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc 
    http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/spain-economy-euro-debt-crisis-sovereign/4/2/2012/id/40185 
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-calm-before-the-eu-storm-2012-04-02?link=home_carousel 

    Just too many bears out there.  Of course, there are a TON of bulls out there, so hope is not lost.

    I'm wondering if the "growing" recovery is cause to be bearish, and I'm not talking about QE.  With this huge rally, could investment banks figure most of the easy money is out of the stock market, and start investing in, IDK, the ECONOMY?  You know, making payroll and equipment loans, crazy ideas like that?  Or maybe reverse cause and effect - the downturn spurs economic investment.

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  121. She rarely puts me through the fashion show thing, thankfully.  Probably because she got tired of hearing me say, "You look great.  Now let's go!" 

    Instead, I have to deal with:

    "Are you ready yet?"
    "Almost!"
    (an hour later)
    "Are you ready now?"
    "Almost!"
    (6 months later)
    "Are you finally ready?"
    "Almost!"

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  122. Lol. "G" rated.

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  123. LOL....I have tried, and tried the "You look great", but it just doesn't work...I have even resorted to bribery (monetary and barter)...I get nuthin,..so I just cut right to the chase and tell her that the junk in her trunk look best arranged in what she has on at the moment. Now I know why she forced me to watch "Queer Eye" and "America's Next Top Model"...oh Heidi.

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  124. Pretty big inflection point here.  Bulls need a new high tomorrow or Wednesday to turn this last rally wave into an impulse.  Have to see how it develops from here. 

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  125. What's everyone's issue w/ that guys setup?  I'm not seeing a problem :)

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  126. Believe it or not, I had to learn some cuneiform (numbers) in a CompSci intro class. Piece of cake.

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  127. thanks for the trading advice. the correlation between the two companies looks ripe for a "pear" trade. short the apple long the pear. will execute trade in the am on my eyepad once i can resolve dividing price by 0. gluck

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  128. LOL you guys are just killing me today.  I usually hide out in the garage so I don't have to answer any difficult questions........

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  129. Photo by insurance company adjuster.....  I really like the fiberglass ladder on the meter can - good job man !!!

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  130. Lmao - 6 months!

    "Hey honey dearest, I know it's only June but have you given any thought to your wardrobe for the Smith's Christmas party?"

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  131. You might be on it with the retracement.  I did not get a fill until near the somewhat weak close.  Stock was down today on analyst downgrade from buy to neutral.  Very narrow range for the trade which makes me think it has or is very near a complete ABC from the recent high.  The butterfly hedge kicked in very nicely - when I looked at the account, the Monthly long call trade was down but the hedge offset all but 52 dollars of that loss.  So am looking to do the short term trade with weekly options.  I may depending on price performance and chart open a long position in May contract at 200 - 215 for earnings.  I will keep you posted.

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  132. Took me out on the condition sell order to sell when RUT price hit 840.  Happened near the close.  So am going to watch for the setup to take a short entry at what I think will be frustration point "b" which I think we more or less arrived at today.  If it goes to 843 to 847 somewhere in there I think is the point where the breakout begins to go nowhere....... and the whip to the downside begins.  I am of the opinion that the intraday and sma will provide nice clues as well as EW.

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  133. Never doubted your target.  Been a big fan of the frustration trade simply because it fits perfectly with the market psychology of the moment.  So the soon to be infamous PL Maximum Frustration Point should not be far away..... seems like the MF point, (Max  Frustration), should land somewhere either just shy of or just north of the popular target of 1425.  I am thinking somewhere between 1428.7 to 1429.7 would be a nice fit for that point........  Why those numbers?  1427.50 is mid between 1425 and 1430 next round number up.  So that would be too easy to defend with options.  So it has to be higher and that range 1428.7 to 1429.7 gives that appearance of a breakout that does not go anywhere.  This is not tradeable by any means, just some thoughts on how the market operates...

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  134. When bribery fails JB, take the wise words of DRG and go hang out in the garage cause your words are meaningless at that point. It's further proof that I will never understand the complexities of the female psyche - gotta love 'em though

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  135. He is someone to care about. Really does a bang up job on the charts and offering direction to weather vanes like me. More important than the work he does on the charts  is the forum he's created here....good people, good ideas, a real mixing bowl of life's best. Good to know you RickQC....I think you're one of PL's best and I sure hope PL keeps me from getting hit by the bus! Let's ride wave 3.....

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  136. Anyone could get an extension ladder and easily reach the top....it takes genius to create and they say there is a fine line between genius and crackers. Glad it struck your funny bone....it's what I was goin for. Really though...I had to share this with others as soon as I saw it...couldn't stop laughing!

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  137. I am often accused of hanging out in the garage toooo much...but I have so much fun playing with my gadgets...this one is my favorite...not as cool as a Lambo, but still a lot of fun (and in 4-axis, but I wish had a 5th.)

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  138. I hate the difficult questions...LOL

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  139. I suspect you're one of those Process Improvement guys aren't ya? Truly, I had to share this with others as soon as I saw it...I couldn't stop laughing. Thanks for noticing.

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  140. Yes PL...I suspect we are all victims of such tomfoolery at one time or another.......and I like your "youth is the mother of stupidity" quote. At times I think I could be the poster boy! Stay well.....all of us here need your guidance.

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  141. My experience is guys don't use "cute", so I'm going with thank for noticing dear lady! When I saw this I laughed so hard my sides hurt. Had to share it with my friends here.....great site, great people and laughter is the best medicine.

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  142. truerangeballisticApril 2, 2012 at 7:14 PM

    DRG after the last 5 mins today I think 848 will be challenged, imo. That would meet the IHS target but also ruin the rs of the new H&S for me. LS needs to be higher than RS to have a better down move, per Bulkowski. If it does hit 848 I am out and will look at the SMA's for clues. I do like that approach in this market. AMZN may bounce up tomorrow as well. More of a gut feel than anything else after AAPL went triple lindy today. I like your whipsaw approach as well. The MF parlay. One item today was the low volume on the IWM. Not sure how that correlates to the RUT. Sorry for the rambling thoughts here. Thanks again for your observations. I appreciate it.

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  143. Thanks man....everyones laughin at me. Glad you see the genius in my work. I laughed so hard when I saw this.....I immediately thought "that's just about as strectched to extreme as this market is" Thanks for the note, glad  ya noticed. Stay well.

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  144. "Does this dress make me look fat honey?"

    "It ain't the dress.  Now let's get going".

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  145. Such as... "Why did you come home at 3 a.m. stinking of booze?  And where are your pants?"

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  146. I used to get..."I don't want you coming home smelling like gum."

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  147. I'm telling ya man... it's all an illusion.

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  148.  LOL...I am blessed with a well-figured wife...who's a retired mosh pit fighting, punk, goth girl....She might be able to put out my lights...don't wanna find out.

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  149.  That's awesome work there.

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  150. I used to get... "I don't want you coming home."

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  151. LOL...you knew my second wife.

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  152.  LOL..
    Did it suddenly
    get smaller in here, or
    did I get fatter?

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  153. omg, i almost choked lmao.  i dunno if i can get up after rofl.  gonna try tho.

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  154. Help help I'm trapped in this tiny box!

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  155. Maybe I should turn off infinite threading...

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  156. Many thanks to Betoq for his ongoing support.  :)

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  157. Yeah, I was pretty impressed with that one.  How about this one.  Believe it or not, it's a decal stuck onto the floor.  It was created by the Canadian Red Cross if you can believe it.  The program was about getting the public to learn "what to do" when you see a scent like this.  The problem is that too many people hurt themselves falling down those stairs in a hurry to help that poor woman... who doesn't exist, lol

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  158. I like that trade.  Downside is limited.

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  159. lol bloomberg.com has the dax at -7056.65 for 100% loss.  I pity whomever had that on margin!  Looks like all the shorts have already covered.

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  160. lmao!   Knew I should have shorted DAX yesterday!  Oh well, I'll get it after the bounce back to -3,500.

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  161. ST or IT, dunno, expect a pop in TVIX

    http://screencast.com/t/zozJi1Ug

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  162. Morning, katzo.  :) 

    You're up early -- 4:45 a.m. there?

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  163.  got up, took a a look, went back to bed

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  164. Okay, update's posted, let's continue discussion over there.  :)

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  165. she's very sleepy...that's all....pretty awesome.

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