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Thursday, May 3, 2012

SPX and RUT Update: Know Your Limitations


When you use a system like Elliott Wave (or anything else), it's important to know what it can do and what it can't do.  Range-bound markets, especially near potential turning points, are particularly brutal on most forms of technical analysis.  I'll try my best to present you with some helpful info anyway.

A range that appears in a young rally that's not yet overbought is one thing: it often means a consolidation before a new thrust higher.  A range that appears at the end of a (seemingly) tired rally can mean the same thing (new thrust higher coming) -- or it can simply mean that the rally has run out of buyers. 

If the market has run out of buyers, what will usually happens in a situation such as this is the market would test the higher prices with a breakout.  If there is still buying interest, the breakout will run.  But it's not unusual to see instances of a brief breakout that runs into a wall of sellers, leading prices to whipsaw.  One can see just such a pattern in eur/usd recently (see chart below).




This happened because the short term breakout was bought, and for a moment buyers outnumbered sellers so it jumped higher.  But it immediately ran into intermediate and long-term resistance, and a wall of standing sell orders that overwhelmed the short-term traders who bought the breakout.  Once that short-term buying money was spent, there were only sellers left. 

Moves like this reveal the pschology of traders.  Most are trying to squeeze every last cent out of a move, and greed can overtake reason.  So even with long-term resistance just overhead, many bought the short term breakout.  How do I know?  The strong sell-off that followed is proof positive.  Sell-offs like the one that followed can only occur if the majority were on the wrong side of the trade, and that adds fast fuel to a fire as the short term money suddenly starts bailing.

I saw the short-term breakout, but I was also well-aware of long-term resistance just overhead.  So how do you play it?  Well, my particular read was that euro still had a little bit of room that it could run before smacking into long-term resistance -- so, being unwilling to ride out a potentially high drawdown, I covered my shorts on the breakout.  However, I felt it was too risky to go long since the reward was marginal, so I sat and waited a bit.  Then I got short again on the whipsaw.  It cost me a few bucks of potential profit, but it was the less-risky play, in my opinion. 

Two lessons:

1)  Often we simply have to let the market declare its intentions.  No one can know for sure ahead of time if a breakout will run or whipsaw.  There are sometimes clues, but the market is always the final arbiter.

2)  It's important to be aware of what's going on across time-frames.  I feel the equities market may be facing a similar situation now, the difference being that equities could run a lot farther if they break out (the risk/reward is better, in other words).  There have been some short-term bullish signals, but there is also resistance just overhead.  Which will win?  We may find out soon.

This is one of those times that the systems simply can't predict with high confidence exactly what's going to happen -- at least, not until the market gives some more information.  My caution here would be to avoid getting too attached to any particular outcome at this juncture, and stay nimble.

The first option is the standard bullish impulse wave up.  This would have the market ultimately heading into the mid 1400's.  Probably the main argument in favor of this count would be the simple "trend is your friend" concept.  The count also matches well with a bigger picture buy trigger, noted a bit later.




There's a short-term bearish sell trigger noted on the chart, which will elect on a break of the fairly-obvious head and shoulders at the red trendline.  This would fit as wave c of (2) per the bullish count, with wave (3) up to follow.  There's no guarantee that the trigger will elect, so one should be cautious if considering front-running that trigger.

Trading ranges are difficult environments to read, because the market really isn't giving out much information.  Shown below is another way to look at things, using the RUT for illustration, though this could apply in SPX as well.  This count would fit the "fake-out breakout" potential in the market.





Looking at the bigger picture, and ignoring wave counts for a moment, there are a couple of intermediate trade triggers set up.  This chart also shows simple support/resistance lines, which can be quite helpful in a range-bound market.




As I said earlier, I would play this market cautiously.  What that means to me is I might use the breakout points shown above as pivots.  For example, I might be long above the breakout level, but flat (or short, depending on how things look) beneath it.  Then flat or long again back above it.

In conclusion, this market is a tough nut to crack right now.  Until it breaks one way or another, there's simply too little information available at the current levels -- however, there are a few triggers to watch and see how the market reacts to them.  I'm really looking forward to things resolving one way or another soon.  Trade safe.

287 comments:

  1. Primo buon giorno from Milano, PL. Thanks for the post.

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  2. lesson 1 - "no" should be "know"

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  3. Thanks for another excellent post...reminding us to be cautious was taken to heart. :)

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  4. Kinda looks like a tombstone, but I like your observation better. Amazing what one can see in "the charts"

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  5. Looking at the oil/crude chart I notice an "Inside day" yesterday. Top of the range was $106.05 and low end $104.91. Traders wait for the breakout and then add fuel to that fire. So far today it's neutral, but near the low end.....right around $105. Nenner has Crude cycles topping out on May 9.

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  6. Excellent post PL, not as much sesquipedalianism in it as previous posts but I guess I am engaging in that myself.

    Time to be cautious in the mrkt til she provides the answers as an absense of verisimilitude now is the name of the game.

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  7. lol, thanks.  Dumbest typo ever.  &(

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  8. the kid and i think it well written.....  also timely and prudent as most traders are not the patient lot.  i will leave it to bob e to tell the story of the young bull and the old bull.......

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  9.  ses·qui·pe·da·li·an   [ses-kwi-pi-dey-lee-uhn, -deyl-yuhn]
    adjective Also, ses·quip·e·dal  [ses-kwip-i-dl] 1. given to using long words. 2. (of a word) containing many syllables.Yeah, I had to look that one up

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  10.  hmmm jobless claims, positive - no market reaction, EUR/US not telling, silver down, copper not, yields should also fall slightly so..pat situation :-)

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  11. y.b./o.b. is certainly a wisdomonious story :)

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  12. "sesquipedalianism"...and I always thought you were a nice guy LOL :)

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  13. spikes all round, INDU 13302, SPX 1406.3 .. just now - not a reaction?

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  14. Europe is getting into recession and the inflation is over 2%.  What is going on?  Monetary inflation?

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  15. I'd love to tell the story.....could you remind me what it about?

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  16. My first guess was "many legged". Off just a bit...
    $-)

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  17. He's got his market top (short term) there also. Will order takeout for the lunch hour.

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  18. More Than Half Of Retailers Miss April Sales Estimates.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/more-half-retailers-miss-april-sales-estimates

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  19. ISM services index slows to six-month low in April.....

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-services-index-slows-to-six-month-low-in-april-2012-05-03?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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  20. Always thinking.....it's "what I like about you"...the romantics, 1980

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  21. Hey PL. Great post again... as usual, and Thank you! A question though... on the first chart, the "bearish sell trigger, target = 1373" Should that be 1393 as below 1393 would be a break of the head and shoulders pattern at the red trendline or am I confused?

    Well... I'm always confused... it's just a matter of degree!

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  22. Let's see if I can keep this clean...
    Young bull and old bull standing at the top of a hill overlooking the meadow, that happens to be chock full of vivacious cows. The young bull says very excitedly, "Hey, Let's charge down and get to know one of those cows."...The old bull turns and says, "Let's *walk* down, and get to know them all."

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  23. I just get the feeling that that was it, a final thrust up and down from now on. Mrkt has to prove it correct tho

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  24. Do I hear a death dirge playing off in the distance?

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  25. Trendline on SPX from April 23rd low broken  :)

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  26. The trigger is 1393ish.  The target if it triggers is 1373.

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  27. Good morning PL CVX looking mighty good this morning. What would you say is the possible  price target to aim for ?

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  28. OK guys, have at it. This is a chart of KO. Any comments appreciated for this learner.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15657910240&a=266200137

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  29. http://screencast.com/t/6NGxsyotY

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  30. INDU and Fractals. Here is a comparison between the last 8 days action and 8 days at the very begining of the rise at the end of Nov last year. Could be we are in  for 8 days of falling markets.. we'll see...

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  31. Thank you... adding more coffee to my day. Sorry!

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  32. Does anyone here invest for longer time periods versus just trading?

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  33. that's a long time period - i would label the subwaves to make sure your waves are good

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  34. ha - what if there's only 1 attractive cow?  I might be in the young bull camp!

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  35. truerangeballisticMay 3, 2012 at 4:29 AM

    That gap needs sealin up Nostra. Then maybe look outs below. Thanks for the chart

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  36. if the spx doesn't drop now through now, then possible this wave ii can turn into a flat

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  37. NO HYPOTHETICALS ARE PERMITTED IN FABLES...LOL

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  38. OK, still working on it. Thanks.

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  39.  Your very, very welcome...Those gaps have been quite magnetic lately and 15pts/day for RUT is pretty normal.

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  40. At major bear market bottoms, yes.  At manipulated, FED induced, money printed to oblivion tops, no.

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  41.  if ES 96 can hold then we go lower, this is all about trying to break formidable 90 area

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  42. Reminds me of General Schwarzkopf's comment about "Bovine Scatlogy" 

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  43. Well, the head and shoulders break targets roughly 105.  I'm watching to see how it unfolds, though.

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  44.  appears KO is going higher LT, will prolly be pulled down by any mrkt down move, but it is one of the safety stocks ppl move to during a correction.

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  45. Thank you good doctor.....your pic's are perf.

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  46. my actual level was 95, not 06, gave it a point for leeway. think a major move down gunna appear soon.

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  47. Don't know for sure, but I think most of the "regulars" here are day-traders (minutes to hours), or swing-traders (hours to days).  My average holding period recently, with the market in oscillation mode, has been about 8 market hours.  From January to March, I was holding some positions as much as 8 market days.  I generally trade on the 30min to 60min candles, but have found myself using the 15min lately.

    While the EWT practices can be applied to any time frame (seconds to decades, or even centuries), a site like this that has predominately day-traders giving their input, these short-term outlooks begin to have a heavy influence on your decisions.  If you come in with a long-term approach, you will find yourself looking at smaller and smaller time-frames, trying to get an "edge".

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  48. are you sore that i suggested the old bull might be senile and desperate?

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  49. drop in 5 minutes

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  50. ..."a site like this that has predominately day-traders giving their short-term input begins to have a heavy influence on your decisions.  If you come in with a long-term approach, you will find yourself looking at smaller and smaller time-frames, trying to get an "edge"."

    Excellent answer, matstery.

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  51. stopped out of that one fast, damn. . .

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  52. The good part is senility is the inverse of desperation...as I get older the less I care about getting shot down. LOL

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  53. It was dumb 'cause I actually no that.  (rimshot)

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  54. Question to whomever: on a 1 minute chart the drop this AM from the HOD to the LOD - I was thinking as it unfolded it was a 5 wave impulse down, but I cannot label it as such (w3 too short no matter how I view it).  How could that drop be labeled?  Thanks

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  55. I don't pretend to know the likelihood -- but this scenario would make a beautiful LD

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  56.  there is a full count there

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  57. I see what I missed, the stochs on the 5 minute have to peak and turn before we go down

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  58. SPX is either doing a very bearish nest of 1's and 2's -- in which case a break of 1393 will drop like a rock, or it's doing a flat b-wave/2nd wave and will head back to 1405/06 before heading down.   

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  59.  ...and you have your own excellent answer.

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  60. Anyone following GLD?  I haven't seen much in the way of EWT thoughts lately with all this sideways action.

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  61.  nothing there imo, I watch it.

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  62. ... ask me how I know.  8^D

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  63.  Good eye.  Rolling over now.

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  64. Yes....I have for years used a very simple process for long term ownership (2-3 years). Two issues I currently own EXAR and INFN. However, this is the wrong time to be acquiring equities with LT in mind. Next opportunity will be mid to late 2014.

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  65.  I just shorted again, very tight stop

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  66. frannybrd....head over to freestockcharts.com and you can break down each wave using the fib retracement numbers. This is a free site and you can play/analyze all you want. 

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  67. looking for 105 ifit breaks down, currently defying gravity along with everything else

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  68. i've been sitting short ES about ~10 mins...at 96.25 SL at 97.75  (was worried I front ran it)

    looks like it might be breaking....

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  69. break of 94 is key

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  70.  Doc, what level is the top of that cloud at where (if we got the same type of move) INDU might turn around at?  Thanks, cool chart.

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  71. if you review the last three days of posts, pl put up some good ones on the oscillator signal and the v of iii signature.  am typing one handed with sick kid in lap so can't get too detailed but look for comments on cvx and the charts and you will see great similarities and both are dow component stocks as bob e's mmm charts from last night early this morning

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  72. also many here hold multiple accounts doing different things for different things across multiple timeframes.  so to get better answer might want to break it down a bit.....

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  73. I know how you know... I know too.

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  74. if we crack 90.25 chance of free fall

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  75. if you don't mind me asking... did you move your stops down?  and to where?

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  76. covered at 92
    80 >>120 rule may be in place this aft.

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  77. Nice ride up in UVXY in the last 30 minutes or so, from 12.42 to 12.92. 

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  78. Thanks. Appreciate all the tips.

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  79.  prolly a backtest of 94-5

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  80. Katz what would be a possible entry point for CMG? Thanx

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  81. Thanks Bob.  What do you see in EXAR?  Gave a quick look, loses money pretty good.  See next year may turn a profit, is that what you are banking on?  Nice cash on hand. 

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  82. There ya go JJB, cast your eyes over that!. Tell me what it means....(support=resistance, whatever)   lol

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  83. again, a break of 90.25 ES could really start a cascade, to 85 ES area?

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  84.  Clayton, I do not know your trading strategy so cannot advise. What time frame do you trade off of?

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  85. Ideally the recent low of SPY 139.61 would hold to validate the E wave (keep it a 3 wave move)

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  86.  SPX number?

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  87. i have the first drop in the a.m. as 3 waves -- specifically wave C of a LD (that's the count for now) see my post above for chart

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  88. DG- I like defying gravity when we are on the right side of it. 105 would work for my puts position for now. Loving the ride!

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  89.  'nother swoon coming

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  90.  How do you determine that?

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  91.  simple math on quote window

    http://screencast.com/t/UURuFG0Ml84v

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  92. There is an old market axiom that says "a rising tide lifts all boats" so if the market in general is headed up then you want to be long. Next question, what stocks (biggest bang for the buck) fundamentals typically do not tip you off to a rising boat...but smart money players will. Look at how EXAR traded and bottomed in 2008 & 2009. Hit a low price $4.93 in October 2008 and no lower in March 2009 (somebody is buyin) turns out Mr. George Soros has been actively acquiring EXAR ever since then (has about 6 million shares) but that's just icing on the cake. now notice the long base building bottom for about 3 years. This indicates the stock price has stopped going down and should appreciate in that they've had enough time to get their act together. During the 3 years you have to decide upon a purchase price. Take the high and low during that time frame and take 25% of that spread and add it to the bottom price of $4.93. Purchase price is...$5.69 and you could have bought boat loads during August thru November of last year. So now the price is $8.00 and I have a 40% gain in less than one year. Now comes the selling.....once the stock doubles from my purchase price at $5.69, or $11.38 I sell half my shares (in affect taking out my risk capital) and then let the rest ride. However said "buy and hold is dead" is buying the wrong stocks....finally the returns over the years are:
    9 out of 10 you own using this method will double, 7 out of 10 will triple, and 3 out of 10 will quintuple in value after the breakout (2 to 3 year hold)....which EXAR did in March of this year...exceeding the old high way back in August of 2009.Do the calc's on INFN and see what you come up with.

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  93. i use RSI often when determining what the ST wave is...

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  94. And the red zone in the cloud coincides with PL's blue box .......

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  95. Up against downtrend line from last highs through yesterday's highs supported by 50 ma on the hourly chart.  Needs to go below 105.95 to breakdown below the ma line.  May have to wait until tomorrow.....

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  96. INDU. This count (if valid) says tops in. Critique?

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  97. ROFLMAO...  You guys are terrific.....  I really enjoy the way the days go reading y'alls posting ........  Thanks to Nostra, Bob and Doom for a great laugh on an otherwise not so hot day....... :)

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  98. Hi matstery, I look from time to time but it is so sideways I get bored to death. FWIW I expect it to boom when the markets really drop as people lose faith in paper money (Asians, Arabs .. petrowealth etc) target $2300. Mad I know but hey it isn't dropping bigtime just yet, although today it's falling. 'Twill bounce. :(

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  99. Between you and K7 I am adding Webster to the shelf next to Bulkowski, Murphy, F& P and Connie Brown......

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  100. Hard part about this process juiceboxboy.....is waiting. Here is an example using EXAR.

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  101. Great post, PL.

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  102. 20/50 ma crossover coming in RUT 20 over 50 from above.....take about another hour

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  103. In the EW context, their are much more qualified eyes and minds. But from an artistic standpoint...

    I like your use of negative space....

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  104. Thanx for the update. What is your take on CAT and CMG. Both seem broken and ready to be shorted soon.

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  105. 50 ma in CVX now at 106.

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  106. Skeptical aren't ya????Ya, I know...you should be. Here's one that I owned back in 2002-2003. Paid a nice div (royalty actually) while we waited for it to go up. Not too many recommendations on fertilizer stocks back then. Maybe...I'm just lucky. But I don't think so.....

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  107. VIX option report  (  starts at :35 seconds after a seminar advertizement)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4coBl1aS2Q&feature=plcp

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  108. Here's a stock I've been following for quite a while and was going to jump in ahead of earnings but thought better of it.  OUCH. 

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  109. Thanks. Take care of the short stack ! It's rough being sick when you're a kid.

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  110. need this to break 90.25

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  111. 3 charts Bob_E. Wouldn't want to buy any of  'em right now...

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  112. Does that mean you LIKE it !? LOL

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  113.  SPX 1393 holding.  It never ceases to amaze me how effective support/resistance lines are.

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  114. $VIX at  high of day at 17.34.    ( yes, not very high, but....)

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  115. Proposed LD falling out of a previous ED

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  116.  break you bugger, lol

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  117. I LOVE IT...might need an element extending to the lower right, exactly along the margin would give it a certain je ne sais quoi.

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  118. Major Kong is ready...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0

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  119. now THAT is a katzo!

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  120.  Thar she blows, Matie!

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  121. Speaking of support, have you noticed that on ES, we're doing the 4th test of horizontal support at 1390? And is breaking it? As someone noted a few days ago, 4th is the maximum. It either finally breaks or not at that point. -DD

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  122.  Don't tell anybody, but I kinda "made up" wisdomonious just this a.m.....shhhhhh

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  123. Nothing like defying gravity! 105 here we come...

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  124. still thinking a 85 tgt?

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  125. video cued up...and ready to go.

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  126. Good calls throughout today, Katzo!

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  127.  whadda ya think?

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  128. I'm out at 87...  now back to work....

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  129. Curiousmind3861May 3, 2012 at 7:56 AM

    hit right on the nose, awesome day and hat tips to you!!

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  130.  always good to take profits at tgt, I did, up huge

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  131.  to be honest I was .25 off, low was 1385.25. I will try to do better next time. :-)

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  132. got to ring the register!!

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  133. Of you....and your analysis? Nobody...nada.chance!

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  134. INDU says " don't mess with ME sunshine.... "

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  135. retirin' to Hawaii I hear K7.... must be.... borrow a wheelbarrow and walk those profits to the bank  :D

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  136.  I'm not touching this one, there is a catch here me thinks. lol

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  137. You've out-done yourself once again. 

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  138. Once again...much appreciated good doctor. Quickies.....kinda like runnin 7 miles I hear!

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  139. Ron Paul: "Central Bankers Are Intellectually Bankrupt".....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ron-paul-central-bankers-are-intellectually-bankrupt

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  140. i figure SPY 138.95 for a potential low today

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  141. ES/120 ~ said on pre-bell post that a double ABC on the $RUT meant a change in direction and that the gap was pretty much filled so able to go down

    http://screencast.com/t/GLpfrE05b

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  142. Doctors and card players....always have somethin up their sleeve.

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  143. You're dabomb K7

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  144.  nother wave down setting up

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  145. That is beautiful....that sends a message to the whole world.

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  146.  yeah, or wanna stick something up your butt. . .

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  147.  shouldn't pic be Obama or the beard?

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  148. AAPL now at LOD at 580..  if it breaks 578 it has nothing but gap back to 555??  close

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  149. Nope down is over gonna get sloppy now into EOD

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  150. Good morning PL. That triangle in the Trannies seems to have formed  9 waves, and to top it off, an ending diagonal. If you agree then we can pack up and go home as trannies are going down a ways, & INDU too ?? Possible.... :)

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  151.  be careful here gunna get really weird imo, gotta go

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  152. Sounds like code!

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  153. Check out SRUT in the cloud...

    http://screencast.com/t/dkJEbqPwhm8P

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  154. America used to excel in making things. Now, it excels in making things up - from the Wall Street fingangsters (Californese for financier + ganster), to the made-up resumes of Silicon Valley CEO's.

    Note:

    Yahoo's newly installed CEO said he double-majored in accounting and computer science. His college didn't even offer CS when he was a student there. According to an open letter to Yahoo's board by a fund manager. Having one's pants pulled down in front of the board is embarrassing.

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  155. Katz has the gap been filled on CMG or possibly still needs to be filled ? Thanx

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  156. Katzo...for you...article on 54-second flash crash yesterday at EOD

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/volatility-demand-accidentally-catching-54-second-grand-rehearsal-market-crash-act

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  157. I'm sure the good doctor would consult his "Itchy Cloud" before he'd do any probing.

    BTW...LMAO when I watched "Paul"

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  158. Booking profits CVX May 105 puts hedging June 110 with short June 100 puts

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  159. CVX a = c at 105.40

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  160. if we get another new low soon .... i figure it to be an ending diagonal in the 5th position... (specifically, of wave E in my primary ST count)

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  161. I can neither confirm nor deny.

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  162.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfzXpE0QB2U

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  163. Katz07,

    Amazing calls today.  Awesome job.  It was such a huge roller coaster, but you nailed those calls today.  Amazing.

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  164. holly molly! that was a roller coaster!  

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  165.  DM, what would you expect after that?  Thanks!

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  166. Posted two charts earlier showing INDu made 8 days progess then 8 days decline, 1st end Nov last year when this surge began, the other the last 8 days. Found another in FTSE, 8 days up, 9 days down. Is there soomething here we should know, 8 days... what gives??

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  167. As expected...carry on.

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  168. Failing ascending triangle - gonna be a nasty break to the lows of at least "C" in your first picture......rotate the triangle around the doji at the high as the pivot point and it will reflect the pattern of descent to form a rectangle.

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  169. Cool now all ya gotta do is master stickiness and kumo kintas......LOL no really looks good, but be wary of an A=C at 834 or so....

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  170. I think of this film/segment every time I visit my "good doctor"

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  171.  Yesterday Holly's last name was Crap, today it is Molly.  What gives?! :)

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  172. Man you nailed it all day long, great calls and good profits to you Sir Katzo of the 7

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  173.  Kumo kintas...I'm getting the Cliff Notes on this one.

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  174. rally...we didn't get the ED to my E wave...no matter...we got the rally i was looking for...The E wave completed an LD down....after and LD - you can expect a very significant retracement (in this case up)...i wouldn't be surprised to see higher prices tomorrow (relief bounce) after the jobs report people were selling in front of today.... but the LD is the impulse...so i have the trend as down...and would love to get all my shorts back on around SPY 140.00 if we get there or above

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  175. Hi William,
    What's your forcast for the VIX?  Thanks,
    Cherek

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  176. haha... Holy Molly sounds so innocent. 

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  177. As long as they didn't change the rules in this semester's text book....Sweeeeeeeeeeet

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  178. looks ready to plunge yep..

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  179. What i kept referring to today as an LD may actually have been an ED upon further review...counts the same either way.
    If it's an ED - it is the 5th wave down completing an impulse down from the high Tuesday (1416).  
    If it was an LD - then the labels on this chart would need rearranged because i'm counting a 5th wave low today.

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  180. Oops, I didn't mean to "like" the question to me.  I thought I was "liking" the holly molly comment. :) 

    For tomorrow, it will be wet in the east coast.  For VIX however, it will be sunny and safe (in my opinion) to hold sold May calls of the 30 strike and to hold sold May puts of 16 strike.

    For the VIX direction, I cannot predict the trend.  I would act when I see the trend tomorrow.  

    If I feel early in the morning session that the VIX will spike greater than 5% through the day, I will go in for a quick morning scalp to buy May 16 Calls with plans to close them out in the same morning time-frame.  I do not want to the big risk of holding front month calls for a possible bigger gain.  I prefer the better chances for a quick $1,000 - $2,000 gain by closing out early.  I usually leave money on the table in exchange for a more sure (although smaller) return; but multiply that by the number of trading days you are active per month.  I've lost big in the past by trying to go for the "big" wins.  They are too risky.  The small consistent gains add up to be those big wins over time.

    If the VIX spikes up later in the day, I will sell more May strike 30 Calls when the VIX might be at the peak of the day.

    This is just my personal approach.    

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  181. Absolutely amazing.  Katzo7 is an inspiration. 

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  182. A WHOLE 0.25 !!! Whaaaat....!!! you losing your touch boy...  Fill that shed with those notes, pack 'em in tight.  :D

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  183. To clarify, I mean that it is safe in my opinion to hold onto those sold contracts that you sold as the seller; NOT hold onto the strike 16 and strike 30 contracts as a buyer!

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  184. Nah, market draws the charts, I just join up the dots...Another wave up and then shorting it down from The Top, why.... you couldn't just retire to Hawaii, you could BUY the place!  LOL

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  185. Fascinating!  So much to learn.  Thanks for the answer.  We’re beginners here at Cherek.  This is great place to read and learn thanks to all the people who contribute.

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