Amazon

Friday, May 4, 2012

SPX and More Update: Bulls Walking a Fine Line


Range bound markets are so much fun!  And by that I mean they can be a pain in the butt.  One minute, everything looks bearish, the next it looks bullish, and the next it looks neutral.  This is why it pays to realize that the majority of what happens within a range bound market is noise.  Until a breakout/breakdown materializes, there's not much for either side to cheer about.

The market is not looking nearly as bullish as it did a couple days ago, though this could still be the "typical scary wave (2) correction" I talked about then.  I do want to call attention to the bigger picture though, as there are a few things the bulls need to resolve if they want to convince people to continue to buy bucketloads of their inflation-driven inventory.

On the big picture chart below, we can see that so far, we have nothing but a lot of failed backtests of the old uptrend.   The only index that looks reasonably strong on this chart is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Marginal Mediocre (INDU).  It's the only one not looking "average."  The rest look like if they experience much more downside, there's going to be trouble.

(Right click and select "Open in New Window (or Tab)" to bring up the full size chart).





The next chart is the count that bulls are hoping for, and it could still play out this way.  Even under this blue bullish count shown below, the market looks to me like it needs some more downside before any larger rally can get started.  

The head and shoulders trigger did elect yesterday, but if the bull count is playing out, don't be surprised to see that target fall short.  Bears need to be very cautious on any substantial whipsaws of that trigger (see second chart).

The black bearish count shown below would, of course, spell trouble for bulls.  As I mentioned yesterday, a close beneath 1380 would be bearish. 





The next chart examines a more bearish potential in detail.  If the bears wish to maintain any hope of this count working out, they need to defend the area in and around the yellow box.  If the bull count is playing out, then the wave labeled as blue 1 on the chart below is instead going to mark the bottom of c of (2) as shown above (the bullish count isn't labeled on the chart below).





And finally, the intermediate trade trigger chart shown yesterday.  Until market breaks out one way or another, there's not much to get excited about big-picture-wise.




In conclusion, the market looks like it's hanging by a thread (again).  Over the very short term, I'm expecting new lows are still to be made, but beyond that, the bulls probably need to pull things together fairly quickly to keep their intermediate hopes alive.  Trade safe.

502 comments:

  1. Thanks to P.N. for the donation.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Wow, eur/usd trading like a penny stock right now.  Total madhouse there.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for the great analysis PL....what a challenge this is....the friggin algos are going nutz

    ReplyDelete
  4. Well PL - the federal fuzzy math dept did not disappoint....  The numbers of jobs decreased but unemployment also decreased......The BLS number was at expectation, unemployment declined somewhat and the market went all over the map during the announcement...Great Article as always.  I am of the mindset that the thing is going to go back up but not to places where everyone thinks it will go to....I believe we are entering an ending pattern here but it hasn't clarified enough yet to say..... See we are teachable.....LOL

    ReplyDelete
  5. dun lurned reel gud :)

    ReplyDelete
  6. mathematical proportion for bottom of EW3 is 1366 ES. seems like we should bounce but EWT says lower still

    ReplyDelete
  7. What was w/ the near 10 point swing @ 8:30 EST on the ES?  (Looking at Forexpros site on the 10 minute chart)

    ReplyDelete
  8. Employment #s came out :)

    ReplyDelete
  9. Yep it only takes about 3 tries to being to get it right..........300 tries to being to understand...... 300,000 tries to being to be good at it and 3000000 tries to begin to master it......

    ReplyDelete
  10. The both are collectively heading for a net worth of about that......

    ReplyDelete
  11.  So traders had a hard time figuring out what to do w/ them, eh?!

    ReplyDelete
  12. The HFT algos prolly contributed to it a bit.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I only have a gazillion more tries to go :)

    ReplyDelete
  14. Labor Participation Rate:  63.5% - lowest since 1981
    Discouraged Worker Rate (given up on finding a job):  +12% over last month

    But never fear, The Beard is here!

    ReplyDelete
  15.  Have you forayed into penny stocks at any time in your trading career?  I did a small amount in college (when I was more naive then I am today) and thought it was easy money w/ dreams of big scores.  I learned real quick about the Pump & Dump and to not trust what people say on message boards.  Thankfully I only lost a relatively small amount of money.  Lesson learned!

    ReplyDelete
  16.  a big stick red candle appearing on the 120 ES

    ReplyDelete
  17. Good doctor.....good day. I have been watching SNE for a few years and waiting to see a bottom of some sort. I think SNE is getting close and appears to be in a fifth of a fifth (not sure what fifth) and has been under accumulation since the 18th of April. My day job is one of a bottom feeder and SNE is ringin my bell...don't know if I want to reel it in yet, so could you look at SNE with those Itchy eyes of yours. Tell me what you see.....thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  18.  Is it statistically possible to have a negative UNemployment rate at some point? Magic 8-ball says "Ask a Ben".

    ReplyDelete
  19. Is that a Katzo on your chart or are you just happy to short me?  I know it's verrry early in the day but have the music on standby (if it isn't already blaring). :)

    ReplyDelete
  20.  Negative unemployment will come when every worker has multiple jobs trying to keep up with inflation.

    ReplyDelete
  21.  LMAO!

    I was thinking more along the lines of "Walk softly, but carry a big red candle"  Your mind is in the gutter!

    ReplyDelete
  22. "mind is in the gutter"...I resemble that remark....my wife's an angel.

    ReplyDelete
  23.  bottom of channel 1370 es

    ReplyDelete
  24. So... CVX blew through the 105 level. Any new projection on where it goes from here?

    ReplyDelete
  25. Matstery, thank you for the donation.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  26. There's always the TSA (Thousands Standing Around), or NSA (Never Say Anything)...they're both hiring.

    ReplyDelete
  27. I've been watching SNE for some time as well.  Fundamentally, I can't see a reason to buy.  TV's are about to get a further competitive threat from AAPL and GOOG (partnered w/ Samsung, I believe).  

    I think SNE's value is to be bought out for their patent portfolio and movie studio rights.  In fact, AAPL would be the ideal acquirer.  Think of all the complementary businesses and synergies.  I don't understand why they haven't purchased it yet as it would be much better use of cash than the dividend they just started.

    Therefore, I foresee their stock price to continue declining slowly until a sudden step function materializes when they are acquired.  Maybe a long term out-of-the-money call is the best strategy here?  My concern is that if AAPL didn't do it when investors were clamoring for them to do something with their cash, will they ever?

    My 2 cents...

    ReplyDelete
  28. Real U-3 Unemployment Rate: 11.6% compares to BLS 8.1%.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/real-u-3-unemployment-rate-116

    ReplyDelete
  29. only a maybe count for now - i'm going long here though

    ReplyDelete
  30. It's pretty much reached the next target at 104 and pennies.  I'm going to close 1/3 of my put postion soon.  That'll almost cover the cost of the whole position, then I'll let the other 2/3 ride for a bit and see what happens.  The is either an extended fifth that will rally soon, or it's a nested third and the decline is only half-way over.

    ReplyDelete
  31. the RED ROCKET

    ReplyDelete
  32. Great call once again Katzo

    I'm late to the game... bummer...   just trying to find an entry point somewhere as to not get burned by a bounce

    ReplyDelete
  33.  possible 80 >> 120 rule

    ReplyDelete
  34. Do you suspect we see that today?  I have SPX puts I'm looking to bail on when it reaches around 1373-1374 area. I'm hoping this channel stays intact to see that today.
    Great calls yesterday by the way.  I hope you cleaned up real good. 

    ReplyDelete
  35. Again with the volatility! How sweet it is...

    ReplyDelete
  36. PL- When you say let it ride for a bit.  Is the timeframe you are talking about just for today or longer?

    ReplyDelete
  37. Said last night:  If this is a ST nested series of 1's and 2's down off the high, which it kind of looks like to me, then bulls are in real trouble. ES is dead flat right now, but I'm preparing a chart for bears to salivate over.

    Funny thing was, I did a chart, then scratched it because it looked *too* bearish!  I posted the more conservative one in this article.  This action is more bearish than the bear count I posted, though keep an eye out for this being an extended fifth.  There are some divergences showing up -- so the labeling may be right at (iv) and this is an extended (v).

    ReplyDelete
  38. Just closed 1/3 put position on CVX taken at (average) 108.25ish.  Easy triple (almost)  Yay, me!

    ReplyDelete
  39. Sold more VIX 30 strike calls.  Missed out on buying VIX 16 strike calls... :(  Was looking at them when they were $3.00, but got nervous.  I didn't buy, but they are now worth about $3.50.  I can't touch them now because they seem to be on the expensive side now.   i don't want to sell the 16 calls either because I don't know if the VIX is at its peak of the day yet.

    ReplyDelete
  40. I want to see how it looks going forward.  I'm not going to get stupid, though, and just cashed out my initial investment.  I'm in the rest of the trade for free, so I can take a higher risk with it.

    ReplyDelete
  41. it just hit a low of 1372 ES

    ReplyDelete
  42. Extended 5ths lead to sharp reversals, correct?  I think I read that in F&P.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Congrats...you're playing on the house now.

    ReplyDelete
  44. I'll tell ya, if I'd been trading larger positions on CVX from the beginning, I could have made my whole year on a month and a half of trades there...

    ReplyDelete
  45.  As speculated, $INDU down 120 [80 >> 120 thingy]

    ReplyDelete
  46. If the market tanks more, I will pay it safe by selling more VIX 30 calls and not go for the potentially riskier/bigger gain of buying VIX 16 Calls with the intention of selling them for a quick coin.  My logic is that expiration is about 12 days away; and far out of the money Calls of the front month usually devalue quickly from time decay.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Thanks for your thoughts....(acquisition) a part of this equation I had not considered. 

    ReplyDelete
  48.  (I meant 1373-1374 on SPX, that was based on what I saw as Fib retracements, etc).  ES is almost to 1370.  Thanks Katzo.

    ReplyDelete
  49. I would be *very* careful selling VIX calls here.  There's enough of a chance that we're starting a 3rd wave down that I personally wouldn't even consider that play.  If we're starting a 3rd wave, VIX will keep rising and not look back.

    ReplyDelete
  50. T1 of 1370 hit, bottom of channel

    ReplyDelete
  51. SPX bearish trade trigger target called out in yesterday's article effectively reached. 

    ReplyDelete
  52. Another amazing call!  Sometimes I wonder what you see in these charts that others don't...

    ReplyDelete
  53.  If you posted last night, I didn't see any other targets you may have in mind.  Are there any for today?  Hope you killed it on that big run down.

    ReplyDelete
  54. I'm sure the donations will be pouring in...  :o

    ReplyDelete
  55. I *really* know that feeling. "If" I had just believed Benji would do whatever it took to pump this market, I'da been long. But like my pappy told me long ago, "If the queen had'em, she'd be the king."

    ReplyDelete
  56. Curiousmind3861May 4, 2012 at 4:41 AM

    tgt 1370 es hit!! Great call Katzo!

    ReplyDelete
  57. Thanks PL. 

    ReplyDelete
  58.  I Am covering shorts here, I am not saying it will go higher now,  frome here I am thinking extended sideways with one last drop, I do not want to get caught up in the extended sideways move

    ReplyDelete
  59. I think we just hit the high of the day for the *morning for the VIX.  

    ReplyDelete
  60. after settlement and monthly finances......  not much but a cut of my small gains learning this EW thing in actual trading.....

    ReplyDelete
  61. Curiousmind3861May 4, 2012 at 4:48 AM

    Yeah it's better not to overstay your welcome. I banked some coins just now too, watching the level you said. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  62.  ppl will try to buy the bottom all the way down, we are in a EW3 down (120 minute) and as you know, EW3s are relentless. Short the ries, do not look for a bottom. Very soon this will kick into confirming an EW3 down move on the DAY, then sweet dreams bulls. . .

    ReplyDelete
  63. Sent mine this morning.  Nice call on the trade trigger and on CVX.  The best "non-advice" you can get anywhere.  8^D

    ReplyDelete
  64. "ppl will try to buy the bottom all the way down" that is so true.  i almost took a risk but decided to hold back.

    ReplyDelete
  65. SPX trying to find a bottom here.

    ReplyDelete
  66.  ES/240

    http://screencast.com/t/a6DbFgyTyxrz

    ReplyDelete
  67. I send my pittance in whenever I can PL, win or lose. You work your rear off ejumukatin us. There's an old South Philly saying..."Everybody gets paid".

    ReplyDelete
  68. Yes, I would not short the 16 Calls that are in the money.  That is crazy thinking.  Thanks for pulling me back from the CLIFF!!!!!!!!!!   

     I would still consider selling more Call 30s if the VIX shoots up beyond what we have seen thus far this morning.  It took a DOW drop of about -130 to get the Call 30s to move $.05 cents from $.15 to $.20.  With 12 days to expiration, I do not expect 12 days of DOW -130 drops; but I know there will be 12 days of time decay towards expiration for these far out of the money Call 30s.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Closed another 1/3.  I'll let the rest ride 'til I know 'zactly where it's going.

    ReplyDelete
  70. It doesn't take 12 days of drops.  It takes 2 days of good drops right before expiration for the VIX to hit 40.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Don't post much here, but follow the board very closely.   Looks as though the measured move on the SPX from the H&S pattern could stair step us right into another H&S pattern that would target the low 1300's ... the neckline is right around 1372 .... something to keep an eye on ...

    ReplyDelete
  72. 180 >> 220 $INDU possible????????????????????????

    ReplyDelete
  73. Think we're in the hover-round zone for awhile, but there's always those pesky algo's toward the EOD.

    ReplyDelete
  74. 2 days of good drops would require scares in the magnitude of a Greece Collapse like we saw last year.  

    I am not giving trading advice by any means.  It is just my opinion that this type of event will not happen within these 12 days.

    You are right though.  All it takes would be 2 days of good drops!  *pictures stick figures running for the hills and screeming ah!!!!"

    ReplyDelete
  75. Nice calls on CELG and AZO, btw. 

    ReplyDelete
  76. That SPX trade trigger trade was as easy as they get.  ZERO drawdown after the break.

    ReplyDelete
  77. You're a good man PL. I'd give ya a hug if I could.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Good day to be a bear.

    Bob Seger singing about how the market dropped today...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIPfNFdXqI8

    ReplyDelete
  79. Are you saying that because you are looking at a 10 day chart?  What are you looking at (in a nice tone)?

    ReplyDelete
  80. Icarus (aka INDU) flew too close to Raa and paid the price. The 3 trend lines it has pierced in the Ichi Moku chart have done their job and slowed or halted progress, cannot yet say if reversed the fall as there is another resistance line, kijun, at 13025 which it could easily each if it so wished. I doubt it would reach the last resistance line kumo2 at 12800 - 12920 (sloping upwards) just yet. Probably. The big worry is that kumo1 has popped back above kumo2 and formed a green cloud which ideally it should not have done. There is a patch of weakness and thin cloud in the last 2 weeks of the month it might head for. If the selling is intense it might not wait that long. So, still no strong evidence of a trend change just yet. More waiting.

    ReplyDelete
  81. ROFLMAO "That's what she said"....OH KATZO, you are SOOOOO goin' for the low hangin' fruit today...ROFLMAO

    ReplyDelete
  82. Fist taps only - this is a straight up blog man ; )

    ReplyDelete
  83.  lol, your stuff posted down below (no pun intended) got to me I guess

    ReplyDelete
  84. Oh yeah... are we bringing TWSS jokes into this forum?  I've been waiting for them! lol...  Right before I saw your comment, I was talking about lunch today with a co-worker.  The comments were:  "They want me to do a webex at 1:00pm est on a Friday!  I thought I was just paid to be friends with you.  I didn't sign up for this!"  My co-worker responds, "Just eat fast Bill." My response, "twss".

    ReplyDelete
  85. And AAPL is singing "bye bye miss america pie"

    ReplyDelete
  86. Brace yourselves - cue the cheezy "Vice" theme

    ReplyDelete
  87. With eyes like that, you should post more often.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  88. when I posted during pre-bell the tgt of  ES 1366 I said WTF katzo, are you f-ckin daffy? Now we are 4 ES points from that. . .

    And in response to PL.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdZp2echcKs

    ReplyDelete
  89. Yessir.  Same sell trigger listed in the article.  Updated chart...

    ReplyDelete
  90. I don't just look at one chart, I look at many charts with EW on them all at once. I look for Superpositioning of EWs.
    My 180 >> 200 is just idle speculation now. . .

    ReplyDelete
  91. Amazing how targets played out today, I closed my short position 1/2 on opening and other halve one hour ago, when the EUR/US seamed to top. Will give me time to reconsider over the weekend. Opened a small Long now on ES with SL. Still I am struggeling with my emotions, never the less thank you PL and this comunity exist!!! Have a nice weekend off for BBQ

    ReplyDelete
  92. Thanks Katzo7.

    ReplyDelete
  93.  Ohh, I forgot about that one. How about  OHHHH YEAH. . .

    ReplyDelete
  94. Big head and shoulders on the euro 4 hour chart, and a first wave down spells big trouble fer euro when that neckline breaks.

    ReplyDelete
  95. . . .  not that there is anything wrong with it [where is this from?]

    ReplyDelete
  96. SPX, NDX & COMP have plunged deep into the Cloud, with AAPL, all for the first real time. Often they get spat out pretty smartly but in intense selling they get stuck in the mire and bounce around a bit off kumo1 and kumo2 going sideways. Looks like another week or more to confirm a trend change, no strong evidence here just yet.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Anyone remember me mentioning a few articles ago about how trading ranges like the one under 1394 offer little in the way of support or resistance?  Now ya know what I mean.  ;)

    ReplyDelete
  98. ES 66.50 just tapped, if that breaks I have no more levels, well, maybe Z E R O     j/k

    ReplyDelete
  99. SPX retesting the 2011 high. This makes the third tap.

    ReplyDelete
  100. I couldn't resist

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0MEtBQb2yM

    ReplyDelete
  101. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GMZjkNW5b8 

    ReplyDelete
  102. Curiousmind3861May 4, 2012 at 5:46 AM

    awhen you first posted, it looked tooo ambigious, now not so much!! :)

    ReplyDelete
  103. The lyric that always cracks me up in this song is, "I was somethin' to see... like a rock."  Oh yeah, rocks are really frickin' exciting.  "Hurry up kids, you're going to miss seeing this rock!"

    ReplyDelete
  104. pilgrims did u catch the MAY DAY MELTDOWN ????

    update to yesterdays chart......halfway there pilgrims

    ReplyDelete
  105. I'd hug you too K7 but I'd risk electrocution from your perimeter defense system....aw wutdahell I'd do it anyway. LOL

    ReplyDelete
  106. I was reading about this new cream they have for your Itchy Moku.  Over the counter stuff, supposed to be pretty good.  In the meantime, try not to scratch it too much... you'll go blind!  :o

    ReplyDelete
  107. I'd hug'em in a philial way...not a cell block 5 way :)

    ReplyDelete
  108. Don't forget the 10%, 20%, and 30% circuit breakers though ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  109. Never get old - does it?

    ReplyDelete
  110. Either we just finished wave 4 for an ABC flat or we are making a triangle in which case we have D and E to go before making new highs for wave 5.

    ReplyDelete
  111. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AepyGm9Me6w

    ReplyDelete
  112. I just try to add a little levity to this crazy world of fiat frenzy.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Anyone playin TVIX, I have a suggest method for timing profit taking - 10 day moving average of the Advance/Decline line. Check it out yourself :-) ,,, http://screencast.com/t/JqcscQiYL0tn ,,, -DD

    ReplyDelete
  114. I'm thinking 1371 on SPX should be a good place for a bounce. Any thoughts PL or katzo? Oops, that never posted. Looks like def hitting my target. Have I learn patience, sold my pits when tarted consolidating around 1375. Still looking for a bounce around 1371 for reentry. Is that equiv to ur Es 66.5 katzo. Bounce expected? Thanks, I'm away from my charting software, feel lost

    ReplyDelete
  115. No kidding. 

    ReplyDelete
  116. That's *always* a good sign....No I *have* to do it...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIUHc65P-2I

    ReplyDelete
  117. The most bearish way I can see to count this, which is initially what I was looking at last night is, (1) (2), 1-2, (i) (ii).  If that count's right, we're only now nearly finished on (iii).  That would be quite bearish, and would put the target for this first wave in the 1340's.

    ReplyDelete
  118. PL, your Blimbo Wave may turn out to be the defining moment for equity markets in 2012!

    ReplyDelete
  119. very cool :)

    ReplyDelete
  120. lol -- At least I had the count right ST.  I *knew* that 1415 was the top, I just wasn't sure whether it was Wave (1) or C... or Wave Blimbo.

    ReplyDelete
  121. There's theoretically some support at 1369/70.

    ReplyDelete
  122. There are times when children can be very exciting......  The kid just went long IWM 80 calls.... I had to go answer a phone call from work and did not close the trading software website.....  oh boy this is going to be interesting....  so far she is up a nickle.....good grief daddy you really need to be more careful.....

    ReplyDelete
  123. Thanks for posting it Pretzel.  Love that song... it has more meaning to me than I could even begin to express here.

    ReplyDelete
  124. UK - Don't listen to PL, my sister used to yell that to me in the bathroom and my vision is just fine ; )

    ReplyDelete
  125. lmao.  I once had the kid place a $1000 bid on an instant auction I had absolutely no interest in winning.  And then I won. 

    Fortunately, the company was surprisingly understanding when I explained the situation to them.

    ReplyDelete
  126. VIX report
     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inPQ7X4WiUk&feature=plcp

    ReplyDelete
  127.  more down to come

    ReplyDelete
  128. read that good sign of possible 5 waves dn is when wave 3 blows thru bottom of channel which it has . so looking for 4 and 5. degree??? got me

    ReplyDelete
  129. I guess the only way I could express it, the memories it brings to me, is to show you a picture of my son as I remember oh so clearly when I was his age.  He and some buddies had gone downtown on one of his very rare returns home from the oil patch where he works.  This young lady apparently took a liking to him.  He's 6' 1" so that should give you an idea how tall that woman is.  For some reason Calgary has more women who are 6 ft. + than any other city west of Amsterdam.  In any case, thanks for the memory.  I really love that song.

    ReplyDelete
  130. ShelSilversteinMay 4, 2012 at 6:29 AM

    I am reading, learning, and waiting...but it is hard to sit on the sidelines when I keep seeing

    ReplyDelete
  131.  guess what, $INDU down 180

    ReplyDelete
  132. Shortly after I had turned 7, the church/school had a big fair and auction for all. My parents gave me just enough money to buy some auction tickets (a quarter each), and let me go explore the whole thing. I promptly placed all my auction bets using 7, and at the end of the day had won enough loot to outfit an entire kitchen (glassware, dishes, cookware) and lots of food, enough to feed the family for 3-4 meals. There wasn't enough room in the back of the station wagon to haul us plus the goods in one trip. My parents just looked at me like I was a freak of nature, but I was quite proud of myself.

    ReplyDelete
  133.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iViyKfcI1IQ
    lol

    ReplyDelete
  134. Icarus (INDU) just pinged (13,022.6) the kijun support line mentioned earlier (13,025). Darn it Katzo7, missed it by 0.018%. Maybe your chart is more accurate? Knocks you out all this forecasting stuff   :D.

    ReplyDelete
  135. we will get a bounce now, test of maybe 70 area

    and EW4, IMO not very tradeable, in Star Wars terminology, if you play "let the fours be with you."

    ReplyDelete
  136. So these are our choices now:

    Wave 2 of V: Still possible but more and more less likely. Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1 correct?. A move below 1359 invalidates this scenario I believe.

    In your opinion are we in Primary III, Major Wave 4, Intermediate C or Primary IV, Major Wave 1, Intermediate wave III?

    The latter suggests that Major Wave V completed at 1422

    I guess the answer depends on whether we go below 1357-1359.

    Any thoughts?

    stemphos

    ReplyDelete
  137. Laughter choke!

    ReplyDelete
  138.  Ahhhhhhhhhhh !

    ReplyDelete
  139. PL, this one's for you!  kind regards

    ReplyDelete
  140. I jacked a 440 line from the brothel next door to the NYSE...we'll be OK ;)

    ReplyDelete
  141. BLUE Suede Shoes. Pl. If the bearish count is playing out do you expect a bounce to 1390ish after your 1370 target has already been met!!!!! I'm I reading that chart correct??

    ReplyDelete
  142. I hate 4s. They've played me one too many times.

    ReplyDelete
  143. LOL...Ya owe me a coffee-free keyboard.

    ReplyDelete
  144. I'm going to speculate that the bottom is in for the day now... i don't think we're in the heart of a 3 of 3 move yet...that would bring unrelenting selling... just seems too soon for that.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Bob_E, MMM floating like a butterfly still, not even kissing Cloud yet, way up yonder in clear blue sky.. CVX & CAT on the other hand seem pretty well shot, short of a resurrection they're done, but MMM?... hmm... not so sure, especially if Icarus flies even higher in an ending expanding diagonal. Time will tell, could be 10-14 days yet...

    ReplyDelete
  146. that would make a beautiful ED !

    ReplyDelete
  147. haha... Does this site's engine have search functionality?

    ReplyDelete
  148. thinks.... oftentimes INDU moves 180 or 220 points in one swoop. If you do a spot of investigating you'll see these two numbers crop up far too often to be co-incidence. Give or take a point or two but it does happen. Watch for it in future, then you too will be a Katzo! LOL

    ReplyDelete
  149. I'm glad I copied it a while back & have it in a safe place.  Katzo, you should just include a permanent tag in your name that links to the explanation!  I love the response. 
    I'll save you the time and tell frannybrd:

    per katzo7 on 4/23:
     

    $INDU up
    80>>120, back to 80, EOD 140
    180>> 220 back to 180, EOD 240 (hasn’t worked well lately)

    ReplyDelete
  150.  this freakin four may be over or one more small up after this down to 66, dunno, dangerous

    ReplyDelete
  151.  lol, it is in the mail as we speak. . .

    ReplyDelete
  152. Davezarling, thank you for the donation!  :)

    ReplyDelete
  153. Now, CNBC is talking the truth not the spin on employment.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/santelli-propaganda-and-ostrich-economics

    ReplyDelete
  154. EWs not correct on this chart but showing how one can override what does not seem correct. This is how I got the tgt number.

    http://screencast.com/t/FgbHMf17so7

    ReplyDelete
  155. 4's are a pain.  Completely unpredictable at the beginning.  Sometimes predictable after they've matured.  Kinda like kids.

    ReplyDelete
  156.  there is a chance that this EW4 up move is a bear flag as seen on the ES 15.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Localize Elliott feature doesn't always works, but it does in this case... http://screencast.com/t/W4nFKt0tIz ,,,DD

    ReplyDelete
  158.  ahhh chit, I quit !

    ReplyDelete
  159. You're welcome. I know it's not much, but I want you to know how much I appreciate your work. I would encourage all who follow this site to send something your way... even if you think it is small, do it. 

    PL, you do phenomenal work that cannot be found elsewhere without a steep subscription. You help the little guy like me preserve capital. Very much appreciated!

    ReplyDelete
  160. Great stuff, katzo.

    ReplyDelete
  161. LMAO a little scarey but she nailed the bottom.....too funny

    ReplyDelete
  162. AAPL almost breaking LOD....  hurry up plz... thx

    ReplyDelete
  163.  it broke  :)

    ReplyDelete
  164. I have a hard time knowing when it's a 4 and when it's a 1 following a c. So I'll jump in on the 4 thinking we're switching directions and BLAM...5. 

    ReplyDelete
  165. OK, since it's Friday and it's been a good day for the bears, here is something for you EWT folks. As you know, the Fib sequence and Phi show up all over the plant kingdom. I find them especially evident in this plant/tree, a Brugmansia Culebra. This plant comes from the forests of Peru, where it is used by the shamans in their rituals - many parts of the brugmansia, in general, are poisonous in too great a quantity. That's why deer don't eat them. But this little tree is special. Its name "Culebra" means "serpent" in the local language, and it is considered sacred there. Every part of it except the trunk curls and coils like the resident green tree snakes. The leaves are long, thin and curl slightly around themselves. The flowers, though, are white, and they emerge as 5 white petals that start out as a self winding sphere, looking just like a Phi spiral, the top and bottom closed with the sides expanded out. Then the bottom tips release themselves and flare out into a circle with just a bit of swirl. The stamens also number five and are white in color. Quite a piece of work from El Mano de Dios.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Same formula shown here on the cash market.

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UG7rBxz6BI4/T6PGeHJilQI/AAAAAAAACDk/Zs3RccdtBuU/s1600/spx+conservative.png

    ReplyDelete
  167. I have only one question in the hopess you will edjukate me, is that your hand franny?

    ReplyDelete
  168. Yes, and it has 5 fingers!! Take that, Elliott scholars!

    ReplyDelete
  169.  rotflm adze off

    ReplyDelete
  170. If this is an extended 5th (of wave 3) (and it is over) and it leads to a usual sharp reversal, shouldn't we expect a move to 1383 (ballparking it) area?  Could we realistically expect w4 take us up to that level?

    ReplyDelete
  171. here's a comparison of 1929-1931 to 2011-??? .  Thought all the bears out there would like it...

    ReplyDelete
  172. They're rootin for the QE fix.

    ReplyDelete
  173. point of no return right here, break 69 and up, or hurry down in a hurry to 180 and possibly lower, I think the latter

    ReplyDelete
  174. you taking a position on that position Katzo?  :D

    ReplyDelete
  175. dis gunna be real swift\

    ReplyDelete