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Thursday, May 10, 2012

SPX Update: 1344 Reversal Target Hit, Time for the Expected Relief Rally

There's not much to add from the past few days.  Yesterday played to perfection, and I simply can't predict the market any better than that.  I won't always hit things that perfectly, so please forgive me when I whiff on one!

Anyway, after yesterday's 1339-1344 target zone was tagged, the market spiked immediately. 

Of course, the media attributed this to positive rumors and news out of Europe.  Isn't it funny how "someone" knew to start these rumors just as my target reversal zone was reached?  Obviously, they didn't.  Technical analysis, and specifically Elliott Wave Theory, is all about sentiment.  The chart pattern revealed (at least, under my interpretation) that sentiment would be bottoming yesterday, and voila, it magically did.

If Wednesday's action doesn't clearly illustrate why I believe that the charts are the leading indicator, while the news is a trailing indicator, then I don't know what will.

Accordingly, there's no material change from Wednesday's update, and the expectation is that this bounce will be sharp, but relatively short-lived.  Sentiment should experience a brief spike as well, but expect some bad news to follow near the wave ii top. 

The potential now exists for a dramatic sell-off if and when the SPX breaks 1340.  Think in terms of potential energy:  the market has coiled itself up like a spring, and if the 1340 zone breaks, it will release a huge amount of pent-up energy very rapidly.  

Of course, there are other interpretations of the charts, and the possibility always exists for this to have marked a more meaningful bottom than I'm currently anticipating.  If 1340 doesn't break in the future, then that potential energy never gets released.  I don't view that as likely at present, but I will certainly monitor the market's signals and update you if my view changes.

Below is the expectation for the current rally.  As I talked about yesterday, I expected the market to decline into the target box and then generate a solid bounce.  It appears that's now unfolding.  The chart below indicates the upside targets.





Below is the bigger picture view of the SPX.  No change here either.




In conclusion, if my preferred interpretation is correct, then this bounce should be a fantastic selling opportunity.  I'll keep watching the short-term structure and attempt to narrow down the targets over the next couple days, and -- of course -- alert you if there are any changes to my big picture view.  Trade safe.

Reprinted by permission; Copyright 2012 Minyanville Media, Inc.

340 comments:

  1.  GM, PL.  commendable work so far throughout this turn

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  2. We have had a number of days that started off weak, if we continue that pattern we could test that 42 ES level again. If we start strong then  we could move up, this IT sell off would be over for now.

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  3. Stupendous work PL...now that I'm actually starting to understand the zig from the zag, this EW stuff is really freakin incredible. Thanks much.

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  4. Agree Pretzel with this coming bounce/rally ,, indeed we need to take out SPX 1365 ,, if we do so ,, I think we could see a possible test of MA50 before heading down in a wave 3 move....

    Agree ?

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  5. Thanks, jbg.  Soon you'll know enough EWT to have your own opinion on the count, and we can all argue about why your count is DUMB.  :D

    Actually, though, that's when you *really* start grasping how friggin' hard it is to nail some of these counts -- or even just to nail it down to one or two "most probable" on some days... 

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  6. out of my short
    AAPL is moving to new day highs

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  7. truerangeballisticMay 10, 2012 at 3:13 AM

    K7-ERB any take on the wave count on ES this morning? Just curious is all. Thanks again for your input.

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  8. R we sportin' the "jorts" this am?

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  9. truerangeballisticMay 10, 2012 at 3:15 AM

    PL I think they are gonna lengthen the fences in the ballparks you have been playin in. You keep knockin everything out of the park. Great work with style points to boot.

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  10. 50 dma = 1386

    You'll note on the first chart that my 2nd target for wave c is a length of 32 points, which is where c = a x 1.618.  If wave b bottomed yesterday at 1354, then 1354 + 32 =  (drumroll please)... 1386. 

    (Insert Twilight Zone music here.)

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  11. zigs are different than zags???

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  12. I'm still befuddled by the 3 of the (i) of the C of the Extended Branch on my dogwood, but I'll get it eventually. And I do anticipate some dumb calls, but you fight nice so I look forward to the enlightening "dialogues". You have my deepest respect :)

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  13. Looks like right ,, I've got a potential major reversal in markets due by Mid May ,, so the question for me is ,, if we move UP into mid May now ,, --- Or we sell off further into mid May. So far looks most likely we rally into 1386 and then the reversal to downside will take place hard.

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  14. Katzo, do you think today will be another bad day for the bulls like you posted previously? We hit 63 es right now.

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  15. PL, I truly appreciate your insight but most of all I love that I always have a smile when I read your posts.  I am having trouble with the disproportionality of wave B c (v) in the Big Picture.  It's small size would seem to indicate that perhaps wave (iv) is not complete (or just completed) - an expectation that would not be disproportional in either time or size.  What are the odds, oh, Oracle of EW?

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  16.  looks like up to me now

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  17. Well, I'm viewing (v) as a failure in SPX, thus, the disproportionality (is that even a word?). 

    But yes, the potential does exist for this to be some type of complex (iv).  I'm not currently viewing it that way due to several supporting cast members, such as longer-term cycles, unemployment/SPX comparisons, and the look of the EU markets.  I've been wrong before, though, and the look of things can always morph.

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  18. appears we are headed for 1370 or an C of an EW4 at opening bell, over that and there is potential that the EW4 will break and we recount into an up move. Trying to figure out if this is a jobs news thing where we sell the news around 10 am, remember, the EW4 to 5 transitions can be brutal, or if we have finished testing the es 42 level.

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  19. Youz guys are reeeeeeeally friggin funny...You know what they say about paybacks LOL  :P

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  20. that's why I like zurgs....they always go where I want them too :)

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  21.  Athens stock exchange is up 3.42%, banks up 9.70%  , Greece (the last three sessions banks lost 20.6%)”

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  22. 974-975 on EMD. looking to sell at that level

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  23. hardy har har :)

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  24. Thanks and hey, where would the English language be if we couldn't make up words when we felt like it?

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  25.  incredible...simply incredible

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  26. I infer that this may translate into a tradable bounce for CVX.

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  27. Awesome update, appreciate it!!!

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  28. Possibly.  I don't have a clear handle on CVX's very short-term pattern at the moment, so I'm simply not sure how long the bottom at 101.37 will last.  1-minute chart's a friggin mess there.

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  29. 60 to 62 es zone is chop zone, first directional break out should tell direction

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  30. a rather long katzo forming, shaking out some weak longs?

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  31.  Buzz Lightyear would disagree with you, Zurg is one tough dude

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  32. lowered the 60 to 59

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  33. I was just wondering why the red candle, BB is speaking!!

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  34. FWIW, my unconventional non EW T/A cannot support the wave 2 up call here today.    If that was the plan, I'd be getting certain signals on my dailies that are not appearing.    Instead, we're already at or near significant resistance and I'm getting the sense that we fail from not much higher than here (1365-70 spx?).    Not sure about 1340, if it holds, but I can see us retesting it soon.    Perhaps then we get a larger move higher.     Personally, I'm leaning toward 5 up over 2 up, but its a tough call.

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  35. Another Shameless Plug Alert!

    In case you have a hard time reading the update on a black background, don't forget to read it again at Minyanville!  :)

    http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/technical-analysis-elliott-wave-elliott-wave/5/10/2012/id/40914

    btw, I was able to resolve the "tiny chart" issue, and they're going to allow me *yet another* exception from their standard protocol, and let me have bigger charts than everyone else.  I know I was their #1 author before, but I'm really starting to wonder exactly "how" number one... seems like they're really going out of their way to accomodate, so my numbers musta been purty good. 

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  36. Quote of the day: "Greece defaulted 105 times in the past 200 years. History says that it is due for another one."  :)

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  37. All hail the blue box!  Spot on Pretzel.

    EWT seems to work better when the Fed is quiet.   With us approaching a wave 3 down, I fear the Fed will start making noises to game the system.  If you were the Beard and had limited dry powder, wouldn't you choose that as the best time to abort the bear?

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  38.  you were soooo #1, you were #1/4 ;D

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  39. Ben was talking I guess the market reacted to what he said briefly.

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  40. FWI, in the South, University of Florida fans are best known for their interesting "jort" attire, while LSU fans are known for having the distinct scent of "fried corn dogs" ; )
    Your a good sport Blue - "you my boy"

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  41. Perhaps a LD up off the lows?

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  42. You love them LD's don't ya?  :)

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  43. ty, Spiker.  My beard hasn't been itching lately, so not sure if Bernanke has anything planned immediately...

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  44. OR.....something like this?
    drawn out - volatile 4 wave?

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  45. 1st target for ii is actually 1370... so that jives w/ your failure level.

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  46. I'm thinkin' "Pretzelville" #1

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  47. That's actually the first thing that popped into my mind (having seen 1 and 2 possibly 300 times)...so glad my boy is outta that stage

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  48. Another quote of the day: "The equity market and the economy are disconnected. Eventually, they will have to meet each other. It is not likely that the economy will be going up any time soon." - a Chicago bond trader.

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  49. Watching Bloomy, rare that I do that, floor trader says we will hold on to these gains, we will see, we will see. . . .
    katzo coming me thinks, watch 10:15

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  50. Have to - right now.  this market isn't a trender.... so it's all about ED/LD ... long live the 3 waves!

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  51. Albert, if you keep giving us "quote" for the day, I'm gonna have to toss out some! ;-)

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  52. Not 100% clear on eur/usd here, but potential for a big pop IF it can clear 1.29800 definitely exists...

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  53. Not totally OT, but when you folks get a chance between counting your money and writing large checks to PL... this is pretty GD funny.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRWZoCqnDhE

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  54. "floor trader" must be long, or he just did a front run short.

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  55. still getting very strong sell signals, ST out at least a couple of hours

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  56. Another one said he would not short until 1375-ish. Don't you want to hold your fire?

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  57. If you take a look at your page counter, it'll remind you of the counter in "Lost" (but in reverse)...Jeez I could set my second count to it...Ya gotta try EW'ing your pageviews just for S&G.

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  58. out of ST short from 61.5. took profit altho getting strong signals (see below)

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  59. ST? thought it means short  term but short term what? thanks

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  60. why would I listen to some TV clown (?). ppl do your own research,  or pair your chart viewing to my posts, this is how I learned to trade, so too can you if have an open mind

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  61. do you have a target for this drop?

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  62.  What he said more or less meshed with PL's target box. No?

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  63. Can't get good enough charts for it!   I suppose I could create them, but I ain't gots dat kinda time.

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  64. yeah, 42.5 , just maybe . . .   but this will be a very hard day, charts are a bit all over the place

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  65. China Gives Up On Europe, Will Target Africa Instead.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-gives-europe-will-target-africa-instead

    I think the snow ball of Europe debt crisis is going downhill.

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  66. a very strong short term sell signal (ST)

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  67. Thanks for answering my question on ES futures on the previous update, apprecaite that.  So when you control 10 contracts/$5k/day, does that mean you can only make 10 trades in the day, or at most trade 10 @ a time?  

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  68. SPX remains below the neckline 1365-1369 ,, so the thing is ,, we might even still head lower if this is just a backtest still.... all IMO

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  69. SPX needs a move above 1370 to really get going imo to bullish side ,, until then bears still in control so far.

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  70. I've really enjoyed reading your articles and all of this colorful commentary for a while now and I really need to learn ewt from the beginning. Can you recommend a good starting place. Also which platform do you all recommend for trading es?

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  71. view the doji on 120 es, that is either a half way mark, meaning we dip to about 53, then head for about 70, an ABC on the 120, or the EW4 top is in and we crash into the 5 down. I think the former.

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  72. Boy, there's a recipe for a s**t stew. Those two cultures will not exactly blend seamlessly. The Han Ren have some very deep-seated prejudices... 

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  73. one would never expose their entire acct this way. one could do this but one would not be around for very long.

    There are old traders and there are bold traders but there are no bold old traders.

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  74. It will take quite a few magnificent katzos to get to that target. Will be great to see though. 

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  75.  Outstanding find.  Riot!

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  76. Whoever it was that had that velvet Elvis, go get it back and take it to Sotheby's. Warhol's "Double Elvis" just went for 37 million.

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  77. PL - i can't guarantee it plays this way....but example of LD intra-day....see if this works

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  78.  that is a ways out, if this is an EW4 with an ABC

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  79. nest drop should be coming up. . . 

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  80. Got out of my longs earlier. I can't get a feel on this market so I'm sitting out.

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  81. Good move.  This market looks weak.

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  82. Yeah...my $30 investment is gonna pay off. I'll have to replace it with sumpin else though. Kinda like this one...

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  83.  out at tgt of 53

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  84. 1354 could break the bull's backs here if they can't hold it.

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  85. Thanks PL. In the past I would have held onto them and hoped it moved back up. I've learned a lot here.

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  86. I think I might know the answer already, but is there a reason to "avoid" TF? I see the volatility is nutsier with it, but might there be another reason for the ES preference.

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  87. ** Update - adjusted

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  88. Tech sector is solidly in the red. And, perhaps, is leading the market southwards.

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  89.  Watching Bloomy, rare that I do that, floor trader says we will hold on to these gains, [we were at $INDU plus 90 then, where are we now?] we will see, we will see. . . .
    katzo coming me thinks, watch 10:15
    my timing was not good, but we dropped. you guys know the story of a famous TV star with his own show? early in his career he would provide a stock to sweet little old Mary Barrrows Aroma. She would hype the heck out of it the next morning and the TV star would then short the heck out of it. Turn off the TV, it will not help your trading. . .

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  90. It looks like box for b on st chart goes down to 1350?  Are you saying below 1354 means ii is over and/or not correct count?

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  91. It's possible that this morning was ALL OF wave c.  It reached .618 the length of a, which is enough for it to potentially be finished -- which would also indicate a very weak market.

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  92. I'm having a hard time seeing the wave from 1354-1365 as anything other than all or part of the c-wave.  If it's 1 of c, then bulls need to hold the 1354 low, and this decline is 2 of c.  If they can't, it will look like ALL OF c.  As I posted above, it did reach .618 the length of a, which is a common Fib in a weak market.

    Further, a new low beneath 1356 will give the decline an impusive appearance -- okay, that happened while I was typing.  The charts are kinda yucky right now.  :/

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  93. My Cantonese speaking friend let's me know about it every time I talk to him he reminds me of the term "hak gwai", and he refers to me as "bok gwai" which is only slightly better.

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  94.  Is that the polar bear from LOST?

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  95.  100% agree.  I was really hoping/looking for more of a bounce to fade & add to my position trade...

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  96. Just a thought to consider:  If this is actually the first leg of a new bear market, or even just a big bear move, then remember that longs from here out are *counter-trend* and must be traded as such.  In other words, take profits quicker.  Think of how you had to play shorts during the bull run out of December.

    Still not confirmed, and the market could just be trying to shake out longs here before another move higher.  My confidence in the intraday stuff today is low.  The charts are very messy.  :(

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  97.  dunno...but I'll be certain to allude to it when I eventually send it to Sotheby's.

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  98.  yes, more volatility in TF

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  99. Thank you for that....very important.

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  100. Thanks much :)

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  101.  sell signal ended, chop zone

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  102. Looks to me like we came close to .618, but not quite this a.m.  I get:
    1363.73 - 1343.13 = 20.6
    20.6 x .618 = 12.73
    1354.58 + 12.73 = 1367.31

    Today's high = 1365.88

    Have I chosen correct inflection points for (5), a and b?  I realize this isn't down to the penny, just want to understand if I've got the wave structure right.  TIA

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  103. These 3 waves are cruel like that....because they terminate in on a 3 wave!   1,2,3 = A   and so on

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  104. I have 1354.32 as the low, but yes, basically. 

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  105. truerangeballisticMay 10, 2012 at 5:43 AM

    PL just order some books thru your Amazon link. They best be givin you some credit. Just a heads up.

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  106. To PL's point about counting the Apr 23 - May 1 rally as a truncated (failed) 5th wave, I too am counting it this way. Granted, the news that I agree is worth considerably less than PL's perspective, but, in additon to the rationale outlined above, consider as support for this count the fact that the Dow did, in fact, make a new high on May 1.

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  107. Looks more like a standard five-up to me.

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  108. You think we might break 53 today?

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  109. Thanks for the donation, Dave!  Appreciate your consistent support of my work.  :)

    On that note, I'm going to try and get some rest.  4 hours a night is starting to catch up w/ me.  I'm actually really looking forward to the wife and kids being out of town next week -- I can sleep in everyday!  Might finally have a chance to get caught up a bit.  I don't know who thought up the 24 hour day, but it's *not* long enough.

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  110. seems like VIX tried to get over 20 but is giving allot of energy sitting here at mid 19's...   will it give out? 

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  111.  goin' up, tgt 68 to 70 altho that may be set high

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  112. I currently prefer Industrials over Technology as a source of beta (may be segueing away from trading into the realm of asset mgmt with this comment...apologies if I offend anyone)

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  113. when you make your killing come and see me, we will trade ES.

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  114. It's my pleasure. And since when I pay you I'm making money, it really IS my pleasure! Your guidance has helped me focus and pay attention better to what I'm doing. And when I screw up, it's usually 'cause I loose discipline... that would be my fault! Thanks again!

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  115. The .618 retrace off the mornings lows to days high on ES has been hit and held 4x now....

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  116.  so are we going up or down?  :) 

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  117.  EW/120

    http://screencast.com/t/Z5mkUegv37

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  118.  I think up, but take that w/ a grain of salt.  We've been choppy/sideways for an hour+, I'm seeing what katzo said about 1359+, if we crack that then I'd be more confident in going up.
    Either way, katzo says up (post just below) so I'd value what he says more than what I think as he's the one w/ the crystal ball :)

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  119. either i have a crystal ball or big brass ones. lol

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  120. thanks! :)  i'm learning the lingo...
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_lLJjb1BBQ

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  121. VIX option report
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TYXuzvzwCU&feature=plcp

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  122. VIX gapped down into 18's

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  123. Top of my list K7 :)

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  124. Katzo what is your view for tomorrow ?

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  125.  Senor katzo, is there anything you look at that might tip you to thinking we
    actually get to around low 1380's so to test the 50 dma (which on SPX
    sits around 1386) before heading down?

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  126. not at this point, take it one step at a time, first 68 to 70, see reaction there.

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  127. Bravo... +100 to you Sir...JBB, you are officially my Smart Ass Hero of the Day.

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  128. a bit too far out in this kind of mrkt for me.

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  129.  imo don't short this, there is a strong set up to the upside, they are pulling the shorts in. . .  but what do I know

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  130.  $VIX starting to deflate , (for now)..its 18.89    we rally up as it accelerates Lower.. watch for break of 18 down or back above 19 for SPX pulses..    just info to add to the game of monopoly..  or twister..or...

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  131.  covered 792. didnt behave as planned. looks like may break out

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  132. da pop. . . . 
    here is the range, 53 to 59, hummm appears the same es numbers I just
    traded, see how it works? first to break and we go that way,

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  133. TRB you are gonna be getting heat on that BCS in RUT. Might make it if the relief rally stalls around 810. But it is going to be a hot seat to be sitting on. Looks like the reflex rally may run a little stronger than many expect due to late shorts hanging tough until they get crushed along with call sellers concentrated right at or just below end of rally targets. GL Gotta go get back to day job

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  134.  Sweet!  I've never won a SAH award before.  Will you be mailing it or do I have to come pick it up?  Disclaimer: If you'll be dressed like the pic of you DM posted you can keep the award, I'm not stepping foot on your property. 

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  135. Yessir, duly noted and logged into PL ism Notebook. Nimble and quick reference as applied to bear market rally's. Also references better to wait and short bounces. All joking aside, thanks for the heads up

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  136. I am getting a measured move target of 105.94 in CVX

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  137. End of Wave 2 up?

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  138. // i liked that pop, made 62 area and sold off immediately, very weak. think there will only be one one, dunno tho, maybe 65-6

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  139. It just looks randomly trapped in the range 1354 - 1362.

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  140.  http://twitpic.com/9jfhk6/full
    non EW picture.. 

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  141. they are searching for muppet stop levels

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  142. This is what i am seeing - intra-day .... invalidation level top of the proposed II wave (C, e)

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  143.  ES Channeling nicely off the overnight low.   There was a break on the upper end over the employment garbage, but it jumped right back into that overnight low channel.  I've been trading it since late morning, not big swings but profitable :)

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  144. Why not? He's just a Magi homie, dressed for success!

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  145. truerangeballisticMay 10, 2012 at 8:27 AM

    DRG closed out the 810/815 BCS today @ 5 cents. Netted 35 cents per contract and was 16 pts OTM for expiration tomorrow. Turned out ok but I will take this weekend to examine my risk reward stratgey per your suggestion. Hope fully I can post the trade-offs on Sunday. Thanks again for your insights and Best of Trades to you.

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  146. Gotta know your pivots :-)

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  147.  getting full sell now, I guess 1362 es was it, down into EOD, but action real sloppy and fairly slow
    I would love to see it tag 1342 again

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  148. Triangle on SPX 15min about to resolve itself. my guess down

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  149. It's looking like tomorrow is gonna be it, judging by your average ES move...I remember just a few short illiquid months ago when Friday plunges were the standard M.O.

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  150.  she should drop now, speed up and get out of this chop

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  151.  look at that timing, milliseconds

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  152. SBUX Update:

    Chart attached for SBUX. Pretty straightforward.

    I have started a small short in SBUX and in CVX as I am following that trade here. I find that having a small position takes a lot of the pressure off of trying to find the "perfect entry." 

    My gut is we go up yet and that is what my chart indicates.

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  153. I think it's getting really dangerous right about here Katzo:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=15&b=3&g=0&id=t78739989452&a=261233800&r=1336674158447&w=975&cmd=print

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  154. Full Letter From Greek "Anti-Bailout" Coalition Leader Tsipras To "The European
    Leadership".....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/full-letter-greek-anti-coalition-leader-tsipras-european-leadership

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  155. Anti-Bailout Coalition Soars In Popularity Ahead Of Second Greek Election.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/anti-bailout-coalition-soars-popularity-ahead-second-greek-election

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  156. I was looking at the same thing AR, even trying to imagine a diamond in there as ridiculous as that may seem.

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  157. Could we be just going back to the bottom of the range at 54 es?? or are you seeing more downside than that? is there enough time?

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  158.  Pretzel what do you think about tomorrow most likely ? Still looking for the rally higher or did it fail you think :-) ?

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  159. One nice looking katzo coming right up!! 5 min

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  160. mini 5 waver down from the afternoon high (wave 2 high)

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  161. Translation : Dear Trojan Horse, we don't like you and your stinkin' plans. And we're not going to pay you back, either! Yours truly, The Grumpy Greeks

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  162. out 1356. done for the day w/ discretionary acct. bored ;D  enjoy your thursdays

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  163. Thx. I was hoping someone else would confirm what I was seeing.

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  164. Good translation in a simple way, frannybrd.

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  165. This would be a lot more fun if the damned thing would run up to the top of PL's target box and reverse!  Tomorrow being Friday, it's likely to be a mind-number, too.

    -Chairman of the Bored

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  166. bring the popcorn, the show started late but will end with a BANG!!

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  167. Ugly, ugly close here.  If she closes red across the board, tomorrow could be blood bath for bulls.

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  168. Bulls running for exits, instead of short squeeze for bears, for a change

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  169. Bears outnumber Bulls 42% to 25%, which might put a floor under the downside.

    http://www.aaii.com/SentimentSurvey

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  170. That wave is too steep for a toboggan.

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  171. Holy cow, DOW actually turned red for a brief second before the stick save at the last 2 minutes.
     What a save at the close. GOOD Job plunge protection team!!

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  172. Lots of sideways action since the SPX low at 1343 Wed.  Feels like a 4th wave.

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  173. Don't you just hate it when they don't listen to PL?

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  174. Nicely called again, sir. I got out of my long around 1:00 and sat on the sidelines the rest of the day.

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  175. "Earlier this week, the Foundation for Family Business in Munich filed a criminal lawsuit against the Bundesbank, accusing the board of disguising the true scale of risk born by German citizens."

    Looks like US taxpayers will also find out how riskless those 'swap lines' between Fed and ECB actually are.  ECB gave us Euros as collateral, but if Euro falls apart, what exactly will the Fed/US taxpayers be able to buy with all those Euros? 

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  176. THAT was an eventful close!!

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  177. I just looked over a bunch of international indices and it seems like lots of stuff recently finished 5 waves down.  I would not be surprised to see wave ii continue up for at least another day, maybe a few days.  I'm guessing the high at the beginning of the day was a of ii and the low at the end of the day was b of ii.  c still to come.   PL's target box still in play in my mind.  

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  178. I wouldn't read too much into that number.

     On September 18, 2008 it was 27% Bulls, 54% Bears

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  179. I said that the correct position for the EW4 was 68 to 70 es, it never even got close to that and got to ~ 62 area and died. I attribute this to a weak mrkt, it failing to do what it should have. This IMO is very bearish and there is a possibility we gap down tomorrow. There is a strong possibility of a gap down tomorrow. If so, we are headed to test that 42.5 es area, and a possible brek, it would help if there was some bad news to spread around. Maybe Losteria, a small landlocked country in between Austria and Canada, will declare it is pulling out of the euro union.
    CSCO continued down as I said it would last nite, one does not try and catch a falling knife and one uses TA to determine the proper place to go long..

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  180. I hear that Losteria is asking the Vatican to bail them out though. Might gap up. ;-)

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  181. ES headed down in a hurry now, down .37%?

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  182. what a whacko last hour... schitzo is never bullish

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  183. giarc, could you post more? I have always enjoyed reading your stuff. I feel you are prolly an older gentleman (old in age but young at heart) living on top of a mountain with long flowing blond hair who has traveled the world three times.

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  184.  Jumperno64, looking over your chart, thanks for posting it.  Perhaps I'm misunderstanding something on it.  You show 4 greatly overlapping 1 in (1).  F&P says w1 can be a diagonal, but it is very rare, but that doesn't mean that's not possible here.  Is that how you are seeing (1)?  Thanks.

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