Thursday, May 30, 2013

SPX Update: Topping Patterns Worth Watching

Since there's no material change in the outlook since I suggested selling the bounce on Tuesday, in this update we'll examine a few developing patterns and let the charts do the talking. 

I've detailed the 10-minute chart with support and resistance lines, and notes on the potential topping patterns.  Also note there is theoretical support crossing the first target zone.

The hourly chart is unchanged:

On the five-minute chart, there are some notes regarding possible near-term pivots.  Yesterday's "best guess" projected path played out quite well for the day, but that in itself doesn't guarantee another wave down immediately -- one of the things which never ceases to amuse me is how often "The They" manage to close the market at gray-levels.

I simply can't foresee the bend here just yet, and it's possible that wave C is subdividing into a larger five-wave form, which would be significantly more bearish (shown in black).  There is another possible pattern here which extends this move sideways/up, but in the interest of clarity I'm not going to discuss it unless the market gives me reason to.

In conclusion, the bulls are still clinging to hope with the possibility of a larger triangle pattern (as shown in the hourly chart), but I'm strongly leaning toward the idea that even if we see a larger rally here, it will be wave (2) of C and ultimately make the picture even uglier for the bulls.  Trade safe. 

Reprinted by permission; Copyright 2013 Minyanville Media, Inc.


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