Friday, December 29, 2017

SPX and INDU Updates

Not much has happened in recent sessions, but in the prior update we decided to focus on INDU as our near-term barometer, and it appears that the blue iv correction panned out -- though there's nothing that says it can't grow even more complex:

As usual, we would expect SPX to be in a similar count to INDU.  Bigger picture, it does appear that we're close to wrapping up a larger fifth wave.  Of course, it's always possible we'll see another fifth wave extension -- but the last time that happened, we spotted that extension in real-time just before it unfolded, and adjusted our views higher in tune with the market.  Thus I presume that if this wave shows signs of extending, we will likewise be able to adjust in real-time. 

For this reason, though, it is probably wise for bears to await the first impulsive decline before getting too committed (as has so often been the case during this bull market).

In conclusion, the preferred count has been anticipating that another wave higher was most likely in the cards, and if the rally in futures sticks, then that expectation will pan out.  INDU looks like a possible micro bull nest, so in the event we gap up and reverse immediately, then we might be dealing with a more complex flat.  If we don't reverse immediately, then we probably have a few micro fourth and fifth waves to unwind, and would thus trend higher throughout most of the session.

Since the market is closed on Monday for New Year's Day, I won't be doing another update until Wednesday of next year, at which point I will have trouble remembering to change the dates to "18" instead of "17," so bear with me if the updates seem to be going back in time at some points in January. 

I wish all my readers as safe, healthy, and prosperous New Year.  Trade safe.

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