Wednesday, August 19, 2020

SPX Update: Historic Call Now Official

Back in February, I began publishing a count that showed a massive (and history-making) pending crash, which would mark Wave 4, followed by a historic recovery in Wave 5.  I think, back then, a lot of people thought I was nuts about both the crash and the recovery.

But then the market crashed, and they thought, "Well, okay, he got that right.  But NO WAY we recover!  We just started a bear market!"

I stated a number of times for the record that I was sticking to my guns and that I did not believe we had begun a bear market, but rather that the crash was a "one and done" (though I initially wasn't 100% certain if ALL OF C was complete, I was quite insistent that it was a C-wave, meaning the end of a bear market, not the start of one).

Anyway, I have to bring this up, because, yesterday, SPX finally made a new all-time high.  And that now makes the entire call officially correct.

So I'm going to label this as a historic call, and once again wonder aloud why CNBC doesn't interview me more often (wink).  I will also refer to this chart in the future when people tell me that Elliott Wave "doesn't work" or that the market is "random" and "unpredictable."  (To paraphrase a sentiment from the movie Rounders: I guess I'm just the luckiest guy in the world, to have called this monstrous roundtrip move to within a few points in a "random market.")  

Here's the SPX prediction chart from early March:

(And here's a quick link to the update of March 25:  All Downside Targets Captured.)

Of course, now the question is, "What next?"

And the truth is, I don't know.  This market has me scratching my head a bit at the moment.  I suspect ALL OF 5 isn't done yet, but that doesn't preclude a correction manifesting at some point.  When that point is... well, I'm just hoping to spot it in real-time, because attempting to anticipate corrections has been an exercise in futility lately.

I kind of just... really don't like this market right now.  On a brighter note, May's 3400 target has been "more officially" captured, to within 5 points now.  Doesn't mean it needs to end there, though that doesn't preclude a short-term correction, of course.

In conclusion, there just isn't much to say about this market at the moment.  We could be approaching the end of the larger three, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the market back and fill a bit before that happens.  In the meantime, we'll watch for any impulsive turns to signal otherwise -- and we'll know that, when the market's ready, it will once again give us a cleaner glimpse of the future.  Trade safe.

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