Monday, January 3, 2022

SPX Update: 2022

So it's now 2022, which means that on January 22 at 10:22:22 p.m., it will be the twenty-second second of the twenty-second minute of the twenty-second hour of the twenty-second day of the twenty-second year of the two-thousands.  

Or something like that.  

Anyway, I hope everyone brought in the New Year safely.

Last update discussed a few possibilities, quote:
  1. A complex b-wave high (slight new high, then back below the blue "bull: 4" label, then back above the ATH). 
  2. A subdividing fifth wave (leading to a solid rally) 
  3. An ending diagonal (with the current rally being iii of said diagonal)
Thanks to Jerome Powell and his magic beans, all three of those options remain on the table.  Let's look at the first two in a bit more detail on the chart below:

As I noted on the chart, I somewhat like the idea of a complex flat (red b/c), but there's just no way to "predict" that at this stage.  If the market instead wants to keep running higher in wave iii of blue bull 5, it certainly can do that.

Of course, in order to do that, it's going to need to stage a breakout over the long-term black line below:

In conclusion, after much ado about nothing, "bull: 4" held up and led to new all-time highs.  From here the market could continue to make things even more complex with another b-wave high, but certainly isn't required to.  Trade safe, and I wish everyone a healthy and prosperous New Year!

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