SPX and INDU: Market Performs as Expected -- But Withholds Confirmation

Monday's update noted:

INDU did break the low I flagged as likely to be broken, but the wave is still a little shorter than ideal.  Not impossible for it to end there, but normally I'd think it's either not done yet or something along the lines of the black sketch is in store.

INDU has since made another low, so it was indeed "not done yet" (worth noting that the black sketch referenced above also ultimately projected lower prices, so the options were "down now, or down later"):

SPX managed to drop right down to the inflection zone I mentioned back on July 7 -- and bounce.  Which means bears do not yet have confirmation that the next "real" wave down is underway, and the annoyingly complex correction could continue if the market wants:

Near-term SPX below... recall that on July 13, I noted that other versions of the triangle were possible -- those other versions are one of the things keeping some of the ambiguity alive for now.

In conclusion, Monday's update wave directionally correct on two fronts (SPX's projection showed the market heading up, then down, which it did) and this may be the start of blue C down... but due to the bounce at lower red, the market has kept its options open for now.  If bears can sustain trade below lower red, then the probability that wave c down is already underway will increase.  Trade safe.