So, courtesy of Super El Nino (which sounds like a low budget comic book hero from south of the border: "¡Mira! Up in the sky! It's a pájaro, it's an avion... it's Super El Nino!"), we have yet another hurricane expected to wreak havoc on us this weekend. This will be the fourth named storm to impact us since mid-August. My instinct is -- despite the projections that Hurricane Nolo will become a category 3 "major" hurricane -- that this one will not hit us quite as bad as Hurricane Lala did... but I wanted to mention it just in case I'm wrong and Hawaii disappears beneath the Pacific and there's no update on Monday.
It's actually kind of amazing that we've been hit by two "L-named" storms, an "M" storm, and now an "N" -- at this rate, by the time we reach the end of the alphabet, I'll be hunting boar with spears and posting updates using smoke signals. Just fair warning.
Since last update, SPX found resistance and declined. As I wrote on Monday:
[A]s SPX moves higher (and thus closer to resistance), bulls will want to gain more caution, not less -- since as yet we cannot "rule out" the more bearish options (such as a b-wave low).
For the moment, this decline leaves the market range-bound in a sort of no man's land:
COMPQ reversed right at the black B-label but I want to caution that this reversal does not yet confirm said b-wave, and another high is not at all off the table yet. My eye tends to locate inflection points by reflex and I usually stick the labels there -- so the market reacting to the inflection doesn't immediately prove that the label's right (it just proves that I accurately identified the likely inflection point).
In conclusion, I've given a lot of warnings in this update about "this could still be something else," and it could -- but of course, on the flip side, this move is exactly what bears would want to see, so we'll find out soon enough if they can keep pushing or not. Trade safe.
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