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Wednesday, September 16, 2026

SPX and COMPQ: Warshing the Fed

So today is a Fed day (there are probably now at least 40 updates that begin with those exact words), and it's interesting to note that the pattern has turned bi-modal right on schedule.  We can see this on the SPX chart below:


COMPQ is also attempting to dissolve my prior reticence about the black B-wave being complete.  It's not entirely there yet, but it's approaching the edge:


I think the biggest issue for bulls here is that the COMPQ count, if it's correct, wants to pull COMPQ lower one way or another.  Five weeks ago, when I first published that count, it seemed almost ridiculous in light of the strong up-move we were (then) right in the midst of... but now that the market has burned off all its prior upward momentum, it's a lot easier to countenance.

So I think the takeaway here is that bulls should be watching their backs pretty carefully right now.  I can't go so far as to say it's a lock for bears... but this market's ice is thin.  Trade safe.

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