SPX Update: A Ghastly Market

Let me just say this and get it off my chest:  Since the beginning of April, the pattern in SPX has been absolutely ghastly.  To be fair, we were probably a bit spoiled heading in, having rode the extended fifth rally higher for several hundred points during the second half of 2017, then hitting the top almost to the day, then riding the fast and brutal decline, and just generally catching most everything right up until April.

On the bright side, I haven't tried to aggressively call much since then, either -- so at least I haven't been screaming for any strong action at all during this time.  Which, while boring, at least isn't costly.

Anyway, here's where the pattern seems to sit now, but it's still leaving more near-term questions than it's answering:

In conclusion, this has been a difficult pattern to predict for the past few months, but that's the way this game is played, and everything could become crystal clear in a single session.  Until things clarify again, all we can really do to is what I always advocate at such times: Watch for an impulsive decline as a potential reversal signal, and try not to buck the trend too much before we get one.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Wow, I can't recall the last time I felt the near-term was such a mess that I went this long without even attempting a string of near-term calls.  We've been stuck in a trading range all year, so at this point, it's very easy to overstep one's bounds and try to read too much into the pattern, which is why I haven't been terribly aggressive on calls lately.  Eventually that will change, but until then, patience remains the order of the day.

SPX couldn't make a lower-confidence pattern if it tried:

In conclusion, this is the part of trading/analysis that just isn't much fun.  We sometimes have to wait out the dull weeks before the market turns clearly actionable, but that's just the name of the game.  As long as we preserve capital during these times, we'll be in good shape when the harvest comes.  Trade safe.

SPX and BKX: More Fun than a Barrel of Giant Sloths

The market's continued trading in a noise zone for the past (forever), so there's still nothing new to add.  It is interesting to note that perhaps SPX will make some attempt at symmetry before beginning to make progress again:

(Please note typo on this chart:  "2591" of course refers to the low at 2691.)

Or maybe bulls will stick save it here and use the last few weeks' grind as a base -- that's always possible, since 2691 has continued to hold.

BKX is likewise just barely holding its key zone:

In conclusion, assuming you haven't fallen into a boredom-induced coma yet, the market continues to look longer term bearish, but likewise has continued refusing to give much confirmation..  Trade safe.

SPX and BKX Updates

No resolution since last update, thought the steep late-day selloff on Friday might be of some concern to bulls.  So far, this hasn't behaved like anything other than the predicted downtrend.

Until last week's low breaks, though, there's no definitive resolution.  On that note, IF last week's low does break down, bulls will likely find themselves in a "pay me now or pay me later" situation, where even if there's a rally shortly thereafter, it would imply a corrective rally:

BKX is probably still a good canary here:

In conclusion, while all indications are that the downtrend is probably not complete (though a near-term bounce is always possible), so far there's still no definitive resolution to the pattern, so neither side should get complacent here.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, BKX Updates

Wednesday's update was forestalled by some an unanticipated family travel event, but the only thing I had to add was added on the forum on Tuesday, when I noted that SPX still appeared to need another wave down.  We've since gotten that wave, and we are in the ballpark of a potential inflection point:

The current wave down is very choppy and full of overlap, so it's difficult to get an exact bead on:

BKX is just above support; if that fails, it will be very informative, and would suggest that the options are "bearish now or bearish later":

In conclusion, the market has trended down since reaching the projected peak, but we have now reached a downside inflection zone, so we'll have to see how the market reacts here to gain the next pieces of information.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: If I'm Being Redundant, Please Allow Me to Repeat Myself

Still no change, and still nothing new to talk about, so another short update.

Just for fun, here's how the projection chart looked nearly a month ago.  Not too shabby:

In conclusion, there have been no new developments from the market, so nothing's changed.  Another wave higher is still within the realm of possibility, but either way, the recent pattern has the feel of a topping market, so I tend to think the top is already in.  I remain in favor of the bear count, of course, and 2825 is still the first line in the sand dividing the bull and bear counts.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: No Change

Not much to add since last update.  Yesterday saw the market test the previously noted low, which has held... so far.

INDU presents the possibility for some additional trickery from the market, which I've shown via the black count below:

The latest numbers reveal that foreign capital continues to be the driving force holding up the U.S. stock market, as it was the only global region with net inflows this week.  Foreign capital is the counterbalance that's acting against the Fed's draining.

In conclusion, there's no material change since last update.  Trade safe.