Just a Quick Bonus Thursday Chart for Edumacashunul Dolphins (Porpoises)

Yesterday's call of an impulsive turn from 3549 and another leg down has obviously proven out -- not gonna say much else here, just going to reprint what I'd written with this chart in the forums:

Someone asked me to post a micro count showing why I called a turn yesterday... I had to do up the chart special, because I rarely feel the need to break these down anymore (though sometimes) -- I typically just eyeball the wave and I guess experience does the rest. On Tuesday night, one glance at Tuesday's chart led me to believe we'd seen an impulsive decline down from 3549. Considering it's the first time I've called an impulsive decline since the bottom at 3209 (340 points!), I guess experience, as they say, counts for something. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Note that the end of day rally yesterday was likely wave 4 of either C or 3, so that makes this morning's gap down part of 5 of C/3 -- which means the larger decline is not yet impulsive and would need a larger 4/5 to become so.  Trade safe.

SPX and Gold Updates

I've only unintentionally missed a very small handful (I believe less than four or five) updates in the past decade, but I missed Monday due to misreading the calendar.  My apologies for that.

Moving on, here's an interesting psychological fact:  Our perceptions are driven by our goals.  

This means that we not only tend to see what we want to see, but what we see will change depending on what we want.

So it's not just our opinions that are biased, our perceptions themselves are biased.  I believe this is incredibly important for traders to be aware of, because, while everyone does this (unwittingly), it doesn't impact most people the way this can impact a trader.  Especially once a trader is holding a position.  If he/she is long, he/she will tend to see "facts" that argue for the market rising; if he/she is short, he/she will tend to see "facts" that argue for the market falling.

What facts are you not letting through?

Heading over to the charts, SPX has cleared the blue trend line on the daily:

On the hourly, SPX has managed quite a rally from last month's target/inflection zone (I feel like bears keep seeing the black (1)/(2), while ignoring the blue ABC bull count):

And here's a quick update to the gold chart:

In conclusion, SPX has rallied back to retest the all-time high, and does appear to have formed a small (50 point) impulsive decline from its most recent high.  This suggests bears have the first chance for a turn since the rally from 3209 began.  Whether that turn will be a simple ABC to be met with new highs after, or the start of something larger, remains to be seen.  (All presuming that first 50 point leg is indeed an impulse; to be confirmed or denied by the market directly).  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Title for You

Last update observed that Trump had caused a trend line to Tweet, which caused SPX to fall back to support, which would mean nothing for bears unless they could break below it.  Which they didn't.  Instead, the market bounced perfectly off that lower trend line... the same one I originally drew on September 28, long before Trump's Tweets.

On the daily chart, SPX is back to the blue trend line:

In conclusion, this market is just flat-out boring to me right now, because there just hasn't been much to say about it since the blue C target capture -- other than to keep repeating myself.  So, as I've repeated in every update for at least the past week:  As long as the uptrend off the blue C target remains intact, bears remain in the backseat.  (And again, the capture of that target could have completed an ABC corrective decline.) 

On another note:  It's interesting that, as of this moment, anyway, the market seems to be predicting a Trump victory -- which completely flies against the polls, some of which have Biden up by double digits (of course, we all know how well those polls worked in 2016).  So I guess we'll see what happens in that regard, and if the market changes course before Election Day.

Not much to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Trump's Tweets Cause a Trend Line

Yesterday, the market rallied up to next resistance, which caused Trump to Tweet:

On the chart above, we can see that SPX dropped right to the red support line, and it will open today's session with a reaction to that line (aka: a bounce).

On the daily chart, we can see that Trump's Tweets caused a blue trendline on the chart, which goes back a decade and which we've been watching for weeks.  

(Wait, what?)

In conclusion, the market is pinned by long-term resistance on the upside and short-term support on the downside -- note that last update's potential of a sideways grind still applies, as we're still in the congestion zone, so the market could test resistance again and/or test lower levels of support before resolving.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Possible Congestion Zone

On Friday, the market remained stalled at its first target/resistance zone, declining back toward support before rebounding.

It's worth being aware that SPX is currently in a larger congestion zone:

On the chart above, the first step for bears would be to sustain a breakdown at the lower red channel line (and 3310)... the first step for bulls would be to sustain a breakout over the falling blue trend line.  A sustained breakout there could take SPX toward the upper end of the congestion zone (3455ish), and maybe even to 3480-3500 (as noted Friday).

Bigger picture, SPX is still below the blue pivot trend line, but heading toward it instead of away from it.

In conclusion, I don't have a strong opinion on the market at this moment.  The downside target was captured, which could have completed an ABC decline.  The most recent upside target was captured as well.  Now SPX is into a congestion zone, so we'll just have to await the market's next cue.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Short and Sweet Update as Next Upside Target Reached

Last update offered a couple "if/then" predictions, and the upside break led to the suspected follow-through.  The upside target was reached and is acting as resistance:

That's it for charts today, because the market is in a bit of a no-man's land/inflection zone, and there isn't much to be gleaned from additional charts.  We'll just have to see if bears continue holding resistance (a sustained breakout could take SPX back toward 3480-3500), and/or what happens when bulls reach support.  Trade safe.

SPX Update with Free Bonus Gold Chart

(Note:  I've kind of gotten into a groove over the past decade where I don't really talk about the basics of Elliott Wave much anymore, but a new reader reminded me that maybe I should, so I've permanently pinned a piece called "Understanding the Basics of Elliott Wave" to the sidebar.)

Since last update, SPX has rallied into the upper band of resistance, where it stalled.  Today's next upper and lower boundaries thus look to be relatively clearly defined:

I also wanted to do a super-quick update on Gold, which has come back down to retest a line that will be familiar to those who remember this chart from March and July.  Gold bulls probably want to hold that line, or they risk a trip down toward next support of 1790-1805 (below that, then ~1750 and ~1700):

In conclusion, SPX has confirmed black resistance, so that's the next zone it needs to beat on the upside.  On the downside, ~3300ish/the red line looks to be the next meaningful support zone.   Trade safe. 

SPX Update: No Change

On Friday, bulls continued to hold the first ABC target/inflection zone, and put together a decent rally.  There's thus no change, and it remains possible that 3209 was "all she wrote" for the decline... though it remains to be seen how SPX will deal with resistance, of course.

No real change on the hourly chart, though it appears that SPX will gap over first resistance at the open today:

In conclusion, not much to add since last update:  The market captured its minimum downside target already, so no further downside is required.  We'll see how it handles approaching resistance.  Trade safe.