SPX Update: Historic Call Now Official

Back in February, I began publishing a count that showed a massive (and history-making) pending crash, which would mark Wave 4, followed by a historic recovery in Wave 5.  I think, back then, a lot of people thought I was nuts about both the crash and the recovery.

But then the market crashed, and they thought, "Well, okay, he got that right.  But NO WAY we recover!  We just started a bear market!"

I stated a number of times for the record that I was sticking to my guns and that I did not believe we had begun a bear market, but rather that the crash was a "one and done" (though I initially wasn't 100% certain if ALL OF C was complete, I was quite insistent that it was a C-wave, meaning the end of a bear market, not the start of one).

Anyway, I have to bring this up, because, yesterday, SPX finally made a new all-time high.  And that now makes the entire call officially correct.

So I'm going to label this as a historic call, and once again wonder aloud why CNBC doesn't interview me more often (wink).  I will also refer to this chart in the future when people tell me that Elliott Wave "doesn't work" or that the market is "random" and "unpredictable."  (To paraphrase a sentiment from the movie Rounders: I guess I'm just the luckiest guy in the world, to have called this monstrous roundtrip move to within a few points in a "random market.")  

Here's the SPX prediction chart from early March:

(And here's a quick link to the update of March 25:  All Downside Targets Captured.)

Of course, now the question is, "What next?"

And the truth is, I don't know.  This market has me scratching my head a bit at the moment.  I suspect ALL OF 5 isn't done yet, but that doesn't preclude a correction manifesting at some point.  When that point is... well, I'm just hoping to spot it in real-time, because attempting to anticipate corrections has been an exercise in futility lately.

I kind of just... really don't like this market right now.  On a brighter note, May's 3400 target has been "more officially" captured, to within 5 points now.  Doesn't mean it needs to end there, though that doesn't preclude a short-term correction, of course.

In conclusion, there just isn't much to say about this market at the moment.  We could be approaching the end of the larger three, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the market back and fill a bit before that happens.  In the meantime, we'll watch for any impulsive turns to signal otherwise -- and we'll know that, when the market's ready, it will once again give us a cleaner glimpse of the future.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU... and Some Random Thoughts

 Last update suggested the red trend line would be first near-term support for SPX, and on Friday, the market closed basically right on it.  Today, futures are indicating it's going to bounce up off that support line and gap higher at the open:

INDU has continued to hold the "three down" inflection low that I noted last Wednesday:

Frankly, instead of this, I really want to write about the (presumed) pending Supercycle peak I've discussed previously... but that would mean I need to discuss what's happening in America's cities.  And that would mean I'd need to discuss the intellectual decline of academia and how it's impacting our youth.  And to further discuss the throttling of our information streams.

But all of that will require I wade into topics that some will find "controversial."  (Of course, virtually everything is "controversial" in a society that can no longer agree on any common standards.)  And I'm just not sure how I want to approach that yet.

Instead, I'll leave you with a link to a clip that left an impression on me tonight, which you probably won't see covered by our vaunted media outlets.  I've seen dozens of such clips -- but most of them don't seem to make the mainstream news.  There are certain types of clips that DO make the news, and those clips seem careful chosen to create a specific impression in viewers.  I'll leave it to readers to determine why the media is filtering out many of these glimpses into what's happening on the ground in America:  

Portland (warning: graphic)

Anyway, sorry for the digression.  This stuff is on my mind a lot lately, especially how it all seems to, unfortunately, tie-in to my projected Supercycle peak.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Short and Sweet Sleep-Deprived Update

Last update argued that Tuesday's decline was just a correction and that bulls probably still had the ball, and SPX has since made a new high, proving that thesis correct.  Lack of sleep has caught up with me this week and I got off to a late start today, so just one chart.  We can see that SPX has finally reached the May target zone:

In conclusion, SPX is finally into its +/- target zone, which (as with many target zones) is also an inflection zone.  One potential I'm alert to at the moment is for a decline toward the low 3300s, followed by another wave up to new highs, but the first step for that would be a sustained break at the red trend line.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Still Work to Do

Last update noted that SPX could be close to completing a fifth wave, which could lead to a correction, and yesterday we did finally see a bit of a correction.  The question now is whether that's just a near-term correction, and today we'll look at two charts that argue it just might be.

These charts are what led me to warn just after the close yesterday (in the forum) that Tuesday's low ("minus a hair") was an inflection point.  First up is INDU, because INDU is a fairly clear "three down":

Next is SPX, which has yet again formed a "less than clean" top, which sometimes indicates a b-wave high:

In conclusion, while yesterday was finally a somewhat exciting session for bears, they do still have work to do to turn it into something more than "just a short-term correction."  Yesterday's low is (as noted yesterday) an inflection point, which means bulls could turn from there and rally it back up to a retest/best of yesterday's highs.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, NYA: Or Should We Say, "The Fed"

So the biggest news that's fit to print is that INDU has now -- finally -- broken above its June highs:

 

This means bears need to be quite cautious unless/until there are signs of a reversal.

NYA is still hanging out just below its June highs (indicating that the rally is stronger in big names than in the broad market).  In the past, this used to mean something, but in the modern Fed-sponsored market, who knows.

Finally, SPX has developed into an ugly impulse up off its June lows.  We'll discuss that in a bit more detail after the chart:

As we can see on the SPX chart, there now appears to be a i/ii/iii/iv (I forgot to label the iv, but it's apparent where it would be), with SPX currently in a potential micro v.  That means that when it develops its next impulse down, we probably have to treat that as the start of a brand-new wave.  Frankly, this market reminds me a lot of 2012, in that it's just a relentless grind higher with a terribly ugly pattern.

Probably not coincidental that 2012 was also a year that the Fed was juicing the market.

Wasn't 2012 also the year that the world was supposed to end or something?  Maybe the Aztecs got three of the digits right... (that's a joke -- I think).

In conclusion, INDU has broken out, so we'll see if bulls can hold that.  SPX could be working on a fifth wave, which can always end a move at one or more time frames -- but bears should probably await an impulsive turn before getting too excited, to help signal that the fifth is not planning to extend.  The broader trend, as we've anticipated/known for months now, remains up -- which means bears are still countertrend trading, which is always the most difficult.  Trade safe.

INDU and NYA: Interesting Times

I had intended to do a more complex analysis today, but technology had other plans, as I had numerous issues that slowed me down this morning.  As such, what I had planned will have to wait until Monday.

Instead, we'll simply take a quick look at INDU and NYA, neither of which are behaving like SPX:

NYA below:

In conclusion, the main takeaway from this is:

1.  Either NYA and INDU are "late to the party" and when they do at last (sustain a) breakout, everything will finally rally together and SPX will head for the moon

2.  There's some trouble under the surface, and all the available liquidity is going into SPX, with little to spare to rally the broad market.

Trade safe.

Market Update: Bears Running Out of Real Estate

Last update, we looked at an alarming chart, because the market still hadn't done anything (for seemingly months on end).  But now, it finally has -- possibly thanks to that chart (don't rule this out) -- as SPX (at least) has broken out over its prior swing high.  And it does seem to have some momentum behind its breakout, so bears are advised to remain cautious unless/until there is an impulsive decline.  That said, our "canary," which is INDU, has not quite managed the same feat yet:

However, we can see from the INDU chart that if it, too, breaks out, there may be problems for the proposed diagonal count.

Thus, in conclusion, bears are advised to tread very cautiously in the event INDU does sustain a breakout.  Despite my prior incredulity, we do have to respect the raw pattern potential for a micro third wave launch here (although another head-fake followed by a complex correction wouldn't be too surprising, either).  Trade safe.

Market Update: An Alarming Chart, and INDU

Friday was an interesting day, with the market dropping quickly lower early in the session, then reversing strongly to regain all of that lost ground by the close.  Take a look at this alarming chart:

Did you know this was happening?

I sure didn't.

It appears that hundreds of people are killed each year by getting tangled in their bedsheets -- and, if we firmly ignore the old rule that "correlation is NOT causation," then we are forced to conclude that US Skiing Facilities are profiting wildly from this travesty.

Where is the outrage?  When will Congress finally act?  Yet our leaders again remain silent.

Anyway, sorry, just a little "useless correlation" related humor there (as Nassim Nicholas Taleb once said, "Not only is correlation not causation, correlation is not even correlation.")

Last update, we discussed how INDU might be a better tell, at least for the longer-term, and on Friday, INDU held the inflection level I had outlined and then bounced along with SPX:

I'd put up a chart of SPX, but it's not going to tell us anything at this point anyway.  It does appear from the overnight futures action that SPX may finally break above its most recent high, so do be aware that if bulls can HOLD that breakout, then there is at least an option for a new micro bull nest to run the market strongly higher for a time.  If that were occurring, we'd expect to see the breakout not only hold, but also to see the rally accelerate over the near-term.  If the breakout doesn't happen (SPX could hold the high), or happens and then whipsaws (and/or fails to gain steam), then bears stay in the near-term game.  Trade safe.